MENA Water Outlook 2050

Water Scarcity and Adaptation

Options
Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers
Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo

Study Design
Objectives
Detailed water supply and demand analysis 2010-2050
Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage

Steps

Climate and other change projections

Hydrological impact model
Water resources supply/demand analysis
Cost and benefits adaptation options

Limitations
Large scale so simplifications, generalizations

WEAP Modeling Framework

WEAP modeling setup

22 countries
Streams, Reservoirs, Groundwater
Irrigation, Domestic, Industry
2000-2050
3 climate change models
Results from hydrological model

Catchment

Reservoir

Irrigation

Urban

Industry

Groundwater

Outlet

RESULTS: DEMANDS

Results

2000

2010

2020

Demand curves MENA (AVG)

2030

2040

2050

Results
Demand curves MENA (DRY)

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2030

2040

2050

Demand curves MENA (WET)

2000

2010

2020

Results

Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)

Results

Demand and Supply

Curves MENA (DRY)

Demand and Supply

Curves MENA (WET)

Iran

Morocco

Yemen

Egypt

Water Demand-Shortage
(MCM)
Algeria
Bahrain
Djibouti
Egypt
Gaza Strip
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Malta
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Tunisia
U.A. Emirates
West Bank
Yemen
MENA

Demand
2000-2009
6,356
226
28
55,837
162
79,703
43,968
3,140
1,113
508
1,202
4,125
88
15,739
891
489
21,733
16,183
2,772
3,370
403
5,819
263,853

Demand
2020-2030
8,786
321
46
70,408
299
92,310
57,130
4,619
1,528
867
1,525
4,974
122
19,357
1,544
602
26,667
19,446
3,985
3,495
652
8,162
326,842

Demand
2040-2050
12,336
391
84
87,681
527
110,081
71,113
6,081
2,276
1,216
1,869
5,982
148
24,223
2,807
641
35,257
24,418
5,916
3,389
1,061
19,065
416,562

Unmet
2000-2009
0
195
0
2,858
140
11,325
7,272
2,118
853
0
141
0
34
2,092
0
234
10,572
873
0
3,036
256
1,262
43,265

Unmet
2020-2030
8
304
0
22,267
283
29,721
26,907
3,733
1,338
310
471
1,399
80
9,175
663
418
18,146
4,539
17
3,203
555
3,540
127,078

Unmet
2040-2050
3,925
377
0
32,085
505
51,753
43,096
5,130
2,061
788
876
3,625
107
15,381
2,194
481
28,535
9,498
2,853
3,173
957
14,289
221,691

MCM/year; average climate change

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Water Marginal Cost Curves

Closing supply-demand gap:
Increasing the productivity
Expanding supply
Reducing demand

Water marginal costs curves

Assumptions:
Net present value (US$ 2010)

Strategies
Increasing the productivity:
A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)
B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry
C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture

Expanding supply:

D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)

E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)
F: Desalination by means of using solar energy
G: Desalination by means of reverse osmosis

Reducing demand:
H: Reduce irrigated areas
I: Reduce domestic and industrial supply

Strategies (increase productivity)

A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop
varieties)
Typical examples:

drip and sprinkler irrigation

no-till farming
improved drainage
utilization of the best available germplasm or other seed development
optimizing fertilizer use
innovative crop protection technologies
extension services

Costs
US$ 0.01 per m3
= US$ 100 per ha per year

Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:

Egypts Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP) US$ 100 per ha per year
2030 Water Resources Group US$ 0.02 0.03 per m3

Strategies (increase productivity)

B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and
industry
Costs
US$ 0.30 per m3

Note: costs can vary substantially.

What to do with reused water (industry, irrigation)

Strategies (increase productivity)

C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture
Assumptions

Reuse only for agriculture

No water treatment system
Only operational and investment costs
50 mm per year

Costs
Total: US$ 0.04 per m3
50% annualized capital costs of investment
50% operational costs (maintenance, some pumping)

Strategies (expanding supply)

D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)
E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)
Costs
0.03 $/m3 for small scale
0.05 $/ m3 for large scale

Note: costs can vary substantially

sand dams in Kitui District, Kenya 0.04 $/m3
Aslantis Dam, Turkey 0.035 $/m3

Strategies (expanding supply)

F: Desalinisation using solar energy (CSP)
G: Desalination using reverse osmosis
Assumptions
Details see presentation by Fichtner

Costs
CSP 0.70 $/m3 to 0.35 $/m3 in 2030 and 2050
Reverse osmosis 0.50 $/m3

Note: costs can vary substantially

Especially energy

Reverse
Osmoses

Multi Effect
Distillation

SWRO = Sea Water Reverse Osmoses

MSF = Multi Stage Flash
MED = Multi Effect Distillation

Strategies (reducing demand)

H: Reduce irrigated areas
Assumptions
Reduce irrigated areas by 10%

Costs
0.10 $/m3 (Value of irrigation water (Water Productivity) between 0.05 and 0.15
$/m3.

Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:

Crops
Irrigation method
Climate

Virtual Water Trade

RESULTS

Water Supply and Demand

MENA region
KM3 PER YEAR
DEMAND

AVG

CC Scenario
DRY

WET

2000-2009 2040-2050 2040-2050 2040-2050

264
417
435
398

Irrigation
Domestic
Industry

213
28
23

265
88
64

283
88
64

246
88
64

UNMET DEMAND

43

222

306

104

Irrigation
Domestic
Industry

36
4
3

144
45
34

204
58
44

61
22
21

221

189

130

283

171
50

150
39

99
31

228
55

SUPPLY
Surface water
Groundwater

MENA: Water Marginal Costs Curves

All values in 2010 US$

net present value

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Adaptation Costs (2050, average climate)

Algeria
Algeria
Algeria
Bahrain
Bahrain
Bahrain
Djibouti
Djibouti
Djibouti
Egypt
Egypt
Egypt
Gaza
Strip
Gaza
Gaza
Strip
Strip
Iran
Iran
Iran
Iraq
Iraq
Iraq
Israel
Israel
Israel
Jordan
Jordan
Jordan
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait
Lebanon
Lebanon
Lebanon
Libya
Libya
Libya
Malta
Malta
Malta
Morocco
Morocco
Morocco
Oman
Oman
Oman
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar
Saudi
Arabia
Saudi
Saudi
Arabia
Arabia
Syria
Syria
Syria
Tunisia
Tunisia
Tunisia
U.A.
Emirates
U.A.
U.A.
Emirates
Emirates
West
Bank
West
West
Bank
Bank
Yemen
Yemen
Yemen

MENA
MENA
MENA

Shortage
Costs
Shortage
Shortage
Costs
Costs
MCM
million
US$
MCM
MCM million
million
US$
US$
3,925
3,925
3,925
353535
377
130
377
377
130
130
00 0
00 0
32,085
4,000
32,085
32,085
4,000
4,000
505
200
505
505
200
200
51,753
6,000
51,753
51,753
6,000
6,000
43,096
12,000
43,096
43,096
12,000
12,000
5,130
1,800
5,130
5,130
1,800
1,800
2,061
750
2,061
2,061
750
750
788
250
788
788
250
250
876
200
876
876
200
200
3,625
700
3,625
3,625
700
700
107
107
107
353535
15,381
4,000
15,381
15,381
4,000
4,000
2,194
700
2,194
2,194
700
700
481
150
481
481
150
150
28,535
9,000
28,535
28,535
9,000
9,000
9,498
1,250
9,498
9,498
1,250
1,250
2,853
200
2,853
2,853
200
200
3,173
1,100
3,173
3,173
1,100
1,100
957
325
957
957
325
325
14,289
4,200
14,289
14,289
4,200
4,200

221,691
221,691
221,691

47,025
47,025
47,025

Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
Costs
US$/m3
US$/capita
%GDP
2010
%GDP
2050
US$/m3
US$/m3 US$/capita
US$/capita %GDP
%GDP
2010
2010 %GDP
%GDP
2050
2050
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
11 1
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.34
1.15
0.34
0.34
969696
1.15
1.15
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
00 0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
3.27
0.12
0.12
272727
3.27
3.27
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.40
108
0.40
0.40
108
108
0.12
1.76
0.12
0.12
565656
1.76
1.76
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.28
196
8.71
0.28
0.28
196
196
8.71
8.71
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.35
171
1.21
0.35
0.35
171
171
1.21
1.21
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.36
6.59
0.36
0.36
717171
6.59
6.59
0.66
0.66
0.66
0.32
0.48
0.32
0.32
474747
0.48
0.48
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.23
2.49
0.23
0.23
393939
2.49
2.49
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.19
0.80
0.19
0.19
646464
0.80
0.80
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.33
0.99
0.33
0.33
777777
0.99
0.99
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.26
5.47
0.26
0.26
727272
5.47
5.47
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.32
2.35
0.32
0.32
969696
2.35
2.35
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.31
161
0.72
0.31
0.31
161
161
0.72
0.72
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.32
154
3.04
0.32
0.32
154
154
3.04
3.04
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.13
3.59
0.13
0.13
353535
3.59
3.59
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.07
0.21
0.07
0.07
131313
0.21
0.21
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.35
253
3.16
0.35
0.35
253
253
3.16
3.16
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.34
104
0.27
0.34
0.34
104
104
0.27
0.27
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.29
31.82
0.29
0.29
454545
31.82
31.82
3.16
3.16
3.16

0.21
0.21
0.21

67
67
67

2.58
2.58
2.58

0.26
0.26
0.26

Conclusions
Study

Advanced hydrological-water resources approach

In country variability
Monthly approach
Changes: climate, GDP, domestic, industry, agriculture
Scoping study

Overall results

Renewable water resources 20% reduction

Water shoratge 220 km3 (range 104-306)
Water shortage due to climate change 14% (range 1-35)
Costs of adaptation US$ 47 billion (range 12-98)
Costs of adaptation 2050: 2.5% to 0.3% of GDP (current to 2050 GDP)

Adaptation is possible, if policies are put in place

now!

Comparison Other Studies

Economics of adaptation to climate change (World
Bank, 2010):
Developing countries: 0.2 percent GDP (2030)
Developing countries: 0.12 percent GDP (2050)
MENA: US$ 2.5 3.6 billion per year (2050)

2030 Water Resources Group

MENA: increase in demand: 99 km3 (2030)

Making the Most of Scarcity (World Bank, 2007):

MENA: 1 3.6% of GDP (currently)

AQAU-CSP (DLR)
Water shortage: 50 km3 (current)
Water shortage: 150 km3 (2050)
2050:
Shortage (km3): 220 (104-306)
Costs (billion US$): 47 (12-98)
GDP (%): 0.3 2.5

Way Forward
Water shortage:
Unconventional decisions needed
Food, environment, tourism, industry?
Subsidies on water-food-energy

Water-energy nexus
Long and short term decisions
Detailed case studies (country, topic)

THANK YOU

GDP projections
Morocco

Egypt