Monroe L.

Weber-Shirk
School of Civil and
Environmental Engineering
Hydrology
Hydrology
Meteorology
Study of the atmosphere including
eather and climate
Surface ater hydrology
!lo and occurrence of
ater on the surface
of the earth
Hydrogeology
!lo and occurrence
of ground ater
Watersheds
"ntersection of Hydrology and
Hydraulics

Water supplies

#rinking ater

"ndustry

"rrigation

$oer generation

Hydropoer

Cooling ater

#ams

%eservoirs

Levees

!lood protection

!lood plain construction

Water intakes

#ischarge and dilution

Wasteater

Cooling ater

&utfalls
Engineering 'ses of
Surface Water Hydrology

(verage events )average annual rainfall* evaporation*

infiltration...+

E,pected average performance of a system

$otential ater supply using reservoirs

!re-uent e,treme events )./ year flood* ./ year lo flo+

Levees

Wasteater dilution

%are e,treme events ).// to $M!+

#am failure

$oer plant flooding

$robable ma,imum flood
!lood #esign 0echni-ues

'se stream flo records

Limited data

Can be used for high probability events

'se precipitation records

'se rain gauges rather than stream gauges

#etermine flood magnitude based on precipitation*

runoff* streamflo

Create a synthetic storm

1ased on record of storms

Sources of #ata

Stream flos

'S geological survey

Http233ater.usgs.gov3public3realtime.Html

Http233-atlas.usgs.gov

4ational eather service

Http233.ns.noaa.gov3er3nerfc3

$recipitation

Local rain gage records

(tlas of 'S national eather service maps

5lobal e,treme events

.cdc.noaa.gov3usclimate3states.gast.Html
Si,mile Creek
http233.ncdc.noaa.gov3oa3climate3online3coop-precip.html
!all Creek )#aily #ischarge+
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94
year
d
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
)
http233aterdata.usgs.gov3nis-3463
Sno melt and3or spring rain events7
Calendar year vs Water year8
)begins &ct. .+
0
100
200
300
400
500
'21 '31 '41 '51 '61 '71 '81 '91 '01
year
d
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
)
!all Creek (bove 1eebe Lake
)$eak (nnual #ischarge+
93:3.;<=
./3>93.;9
9
!orecasting Stream !los

4atural processes - not

easily predicted in a
deterministic ay

We cannot predict the

monthly stream flo in
!all Creek

We ill use probability

distributions instead of
predictions
Seasonal trend ith large variation
./ year daily average
/
./
>/
</
?/
=/
@/
;3</ .>3<. ?3. 93>
date
S
t
r
e
a
m

f
l
o

)
m
<
3
s
+
Stochastic $rocesses

Stochastic2 a process involving a randomly determined

se-uence of observations* each of hich is considered
as a sample of one element from a probability
distribution

%ather than predicting the e,act value of a variable in a

time period of interest* describe the probability that the
variable ill have a certain value

!or e,treme events the AAAAAA of the probability

distribution is very important
shape
/
/./=
/..
/..=
/.>
/.>=
/ = ./ .= >/ >=
Stream flow (m
3
/s)
p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
/
(
m 3
/
s
)
!all Creek2 Stream !lo
$robability #istribution
'nit area
mean =.< m
<
3s
standard deviation 9.= m
<
3s
( )
y probabilit /.<@ 3s m < B
3s m
y probabilit
/..>
<
<

1
1
]
1

What fraction of the time is the flo beteen > and = m

<
3s8
0ail777
Events in bin
0otal EventsB bin idth
$rob and Stat

Las of probability )for mutually e,clusive

and independent events+

$)( or 1+ C $)(+ D $)1+

$)( and 1+ C $)(+ E $)1+

Common Hydrologic 4omenclature

%eturn period )inverse of probability of

occurring in one year+

.// year flood is e-uivalent to

F
9*./
.G probability per year
9 day lo flo ith ./ year return period
Choice of %eturn $eriods2
%"SH777

Ho do you choose an acceptable risk8

Crops

$arking lot

Water treatment plant

4uclear poer plant

Large dam

What about long term changes8

5lobal climate change

#evelopment in the atershed

Construction of Levees
$otential harm (cceptable risk
#esign !lood E,ceedance

E,ample2 hat is the probability that a .// year design flood is

e,ceeded at least once in a =/-year proIect life )small dam design+

CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
)p C probability of e,ceedance in one year+
probability of safe performance for one year
probability of safe performance for to years
probability of safe performance for n years

(1 p)
n

p 0.01

(1 p)

(1 p)(1 p)

1 (1 p)
n
probability of e,ceedance in n years

P
exceedance
1(1 0.01)
50
0.395 probability that .// year flood e,ceeded at
least once in =/ years
4ot )safe for =/ years+
/
.//
>//
<//
?//
=//
/./ /.> /.? /.@ /.: ../
Empirical E,ceedance $robability
#
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

)
m
<
3
s
+
Empirical Estimation of ./ 6ear
!lood
!all Creek (nnual Peak !lo %ecord
> year flood

Sort annual
ma, discharge
in decreasing
order

$lot vs.
Where 4 is the
number of
years in the
record

rank
N+ 1
./ year flood
Ho often as data
collected8
E,treme Events

Suppose e can only accept a .G chance of

failure due to flooding in a =/ year proIect
life. What is the return period for the design
flood8

5iven =/ year proIect life* .G chance of

failure re-uires the probability of e,ceedance
to be AAAAA in one year

E,treme event7 %eturn period of AAAAA years7

n
exceedance
p P + . ) .
( )
n
exceedance
P p
3 .
. .
/./>G
=///
E,treme Events

Lo probability of failure re-uires the

probability of failure in one year to be very
very lo

0he design event has most likely not

occurred in the historic record

4uclear poer plant on bank of river

#esigned for flood ith .//*/// year return

period* but have observations for .// years
!all Creek %ecord
Fuantifying E,treme Events

'se stream flo records to describe distribution

including skeness and then e,trapolate

(dIust gage station flos to proIect site based on atershed

area

'se similar adIacent atersheds if stream flo data is

unavailable for the proIect stream

'se rainfall data and apply a model to estimate stream

flo

'se local rain gage data

'se global ma,imum precipitation

Estimate probable ma,imum precipitation for the site

E,treme E,trapolation

We donJt have enough data to really kno

hat the AAAAA of the distribution looks like

(dded complications of

Climate change )by humans or otherise+

Human impact on environment )deforestation

and development may cause an increase in the
probability of e,treme events+
tail
Where are e going
(lternative Methods to $redict
Stream !los
siKe of atershed
fraction of rainfall

Compare ith stream flos in similar

atershed

(ssume similar runoff )AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA+

Scale stream flo by AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

What about peak flo prediction8 AAAAAAAAAA

'se rainfall data and a model that describes

"nfiltration

Storage

Evaporation

%unoff
Can e use Cascadilla Creek to predict !all Creek8
f)terrain+
Local %ain 5age %ecords
)$oint %ainfall+

Spatial variation

Ma,imum point rainfall intensity tends to be

greater than ma,imum rainfall intensity over a
large area7

%ain gage considered accurate up to ./ s-uare

miles

Correction factor )ne,t slide+

Larious methods to compute average

rainfall based on several gages
%ain gage siKe
%ain 5age (rea Correction
!actor
0echnical $aper ?/ 4&((
Storm duration
'S 4ational Weather Service
Maps

!re-uency - duration - depth )at a point+

./-year .-hour rainfall )"thaca - ..@M+

./-year @-hour rainfall )"thaca - >.=M+

./-year >?-hour rainfall )"thaca - <.;M+

http233.srh.noaa.gov3lub3,3precipAfre-3prec
ipAinde,.htm

$robable ma,imum >?-hr rainfall

"thaca - >/M

5lobal record - =/M

./-year .-hour %ainfall
./-year @-hour %ainfall
./-year >?-hour %ainfall
5lobal E,treme Events

Short duration storms can occur anyhere

)thunderstorms+

?M in : minutes

Check out $ennsylvania7

Long duration storms occur in areas subIect

to monsoon rainfall

.=/M in 9 days

Check out "ndia7

5lobal E,treme Events
?:@ . /
< . .= D R
http233.ns.noaa.gov3oh3hdsc3ma,Aprecip3ma,precp.htm
5lobal Ma,imum $recipitation
http233.ns.noaa.gov3oh3hdsc3ma,Aprecip3ma,precp.htm
$robable Ma,imum $recipitation
)$M$+

'sed as a design event hen a large flood ould

result in haKards to life or great economic loss

Large dams upstream from population centers

4uclear poer plants

1ased on observed storms here % is in inches

and # is in hours

&r estimated by hydrometeorologist

Created by adIusting actual relative humidity

measured during an intense storm to the ma,imum
relative humidity

R 15.3D
0.486
Synthetic Storm #esign

0otal precipitation of design storm is a function of2

!re-uency2 f)risk assessment+

#uration2 f)time of concentration+

(rea2 atershed area

0ime distribution of rainfall

Small dam or other minor structures

'niform for duration of storm

Large atershed or region

Must account for storm structure

Can construct synthetic storm se-uence

Ho often are you
illing to have
conditions that
e,ceed your design
specifications8
Summary2 Synthetic !lood
#esign

Select storm parameters

#epth C f)fre-uency* duration* area+

0ime distribution

Create synthetic storm using these sources

Local rain gage records

(tlas of 'S national eather service maps

5lobal e,treme events

4o e have precipitation* but e ant depth of

ater in a stream7
See pages <.?-<.= in Chin for a more complete description
!lood #esign $rocess

Create a synthetic
storm

Estimate the
infiltration*
depression
storage* and runoff

Estimate the
stream flo
We need models7
Methods to $redict %unoff

Scientific )dynamic+ hydrology

1ased on physical principles

Mechanistic description

#ifficult given all the local details

Engineering )empirical+ hydrology

N%ational formulaM

Soil-cover comple, method

Many others
Engineering )Empirical+
Hydrology

1ased on observations and e,perience

&verall description ithout attempt to

describe details

Mostly concerned ith various methods of

estimating or predicting precipitation and
streamflo
N%ational !ormulaM

F
p
C Ci(

F
$
C peak runoff

C is a dimensionless coefficient

CCf)land use* slope+

http233ceeserver.Cee.Cornell.Edu3m>?3cee<<>3sc
sAcn3runoffAcoefficients.Htm

i C rainfall intensity OL30P

( C drainage area OL
>
P
E,ample
p. <=; in Chin
N%ational !ormulaM - Method to
Choose %ainfall "ntensity

"ntensity C f)storm duration+

E,pectation of stream flo vs. 0ime during storm

of constant intensity
Watershed
divide
&utflo
point
F
t
F
p
t
c
Classic Watershed
N%ational !ormulaM - 0ime of
Concentration )0
c
+

0ime re-uired )after start of rainfall event+

for most distant point in basin to begin
contributing runoff to basin outlet

0
c
affects the shape of the outflo
hydrograph )flo record as a function of
time+
0ime of Concentration )0
c
+2
Hirpich

0
c
C time of concentration OminP

L C NstreamM or Nflo pathM length OftP

h C elevation difference beteen basin ends

OftP
<:= . /
< @
h
L ./ , <.<=

,
_

c
t
Watch those units7
0ime of Concentration )0
c
+2
Hatheay

0
c
C time of concentration OminP

L C NstreamM or Nflo pathM length OftP

S C mean slope of the basin

4 C ManningJs roughness coefficient )/./>

smooth to /.: grass overland+
?9 . /
<
>

,
_

S
nL
t
c
N%ational !ormulaM - %evie

Estimate t
c

$ick duration of storm C t

c

Estimate point rainfall intensity based on synthetic

storm )'S national eather service maps+

Convert point rainfall intensity to average area

intensity

Estimate runoff coefficient based on land use

p
Q CiA =
Why is this the ma, flo8
N%ational !ormulaM - !all Creek
./ 6ear Storm

(rea C .>@ mi
>
C <.=.> , ./
;
ft
>
C <>@ km
>

L .= miles :/*/// ft

H :// ft )beteen 1eebe lake and hills+

t
c
C >9? min C ?.@ hours

@ hr storm C >.=M or /.?>M3hr

(rea factor C /.:9 therefore i C /.?> , /.:9

C /.<@ in3hr

t
c

3.35 x 10
6
L
3
h

_
,

0.385
4WS map
(rea correction
N%ational !ormulaM - !all Creek
./ 6ear Storm

C /.>= )moderately steep* grass-covered

clayey soils* some development+

F
p
C Ci(

F
$
C 9<// ft
<
3s )>// m
<
3s+

Empirical ./ year flood is appro,imately

.=/ m
<
3s
( )
( )

,
_

,
_

>
>
>
=>:/
.>@
sec <@//
.
.>
. <@ . /
>= . /
mi
ft
mi
hr
in
ft
hr
in
Q
p
%unoff Coefficients
/
.//
>//
<//
?//
=//
/./ /.> /.? /.@ /.: ../
Empirical E,ceedance $robability
#
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

)
m
<
3
s
+
N%ational MethodM Limitations

%easonable for small atersheds

0he runoff coefficient is not constant during

a storm

4o ability to predict flo as a function of

time )only peak flo+

&nly applicable for storms ith duration

longer than the time of concentration
p
Q CiA =
Q :/ ha
!lood #esign $rocess )%evie+

Create a synthetic
storm

Estimate infiltration
and runoff

Soil-cover comple,

Estimate the
streamflo

N%ational methodM

Hydrographs
p
F Ci( =
%unoff (s a !unction of %ainfall

E,ercise2 plot cumulative runoff vs. Cumulative

precipitation for a parking lot and for the engineering
-uad. (ssume a rainfall of .3>M per hour for ./ hours.
(ccumulated rainfall
(
c
c
u
m
u
l
a
t
e
d

r
u
n
o
f
f
4ot stream flo7
8
$arking lot
Engineering Fuad
"nfiltration

Water filling soil pores and moving don through

soil

#epends on - soil type and grain siKe* land use and

soil cover* and antecedent moisture conditions
)prior to rainfall+

'sually ma,imum at beginning of storm )dry

soils* large pores+ and decreases as moisture
content increases

Legetation )soil cover+ prevents soil compaction

by rainfall and increases infiltration
Soil-Cover Comple, Method

'S 4%CS )4atural %esources Conservation

Service+ Ncurve-numberM method

(ccounts for

"nitial abstraction of rainfall before runoff begins

"nterception

#epression storage

"nfiltration

"nfiltration after runoff begins

(ppropriate for small atersheds

Soil-Cover Comple, Method

C4 )curve number+ is a value assigned to different

soil types based on

Soil type

Land use

(ntecedent conditions

C4 )curve number+ range

/ to .// )actually G+

/ lo runoff potential

.// high runoff-potential

f)initial moisture content+
C4 C !)soil Type* Land Use* Hydrologic
Condition* Antecedent Moisture+

Land use

Crop type

Woods

%oads

Hydrologic condition

$oor - heavily graKed* less than =/G plant cover

!air - moderately graKed* =/ - 9=G plant cover

5ood - lightly graKed* more than 9=G plant cover

antecedent moisture
" - dry soil moisture levels
"" - normal soil moisture levels
""" - et soil moisture levels
Curve 4umber 0ables
Soil-Cover Comple, Method

p
e,cess
C accumulated precipitation e,cess
)inches+

$ C accumulated precipitation depth )inches+

Empirical e-uation
if
then
else
>
>//
$ >
C4
://
$ :
C4

- +

=
+ -
excess
p
/ >
C4
>//
$

,
_

+
/ =
excess
p
rain that ill become runoff
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Accumulated rainfall (P) in inches
R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

e
x
c
e
s
s

(
p
e
x
c
e
s
s
)

(
i
n
c
h
e
s
)
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
$arking lot
>
>//
$ >
C4
://
$ :
C4

- +

=
+ -
excess
p
Soil-Cover Comple, Method2 5raph
Soil-cover Comple, Method

Choose C4 based on soil type* land use*

hydrologic condition* antecedent moisture

Subareas of the basin can have different C4

Compute area eighted averages for C4

Choose storm event )precipitation vs. time+

Calculate cumulative rainfall e,cess vs. time

Calculate incremental rainfall e,cess vs. time )to

get runoff produced vs. time+
Stream !lo

%unoff vs. 0ime AAA stream flo vs. 0ime

Water from different points ill arrive at

gage station at different times

4eed a method to convert runoff into stream

flo

Hydrographs

5raph of stream flo vs. time

&btained by means of a continuous recorder hich

indicates stage vs. time )stage hydrograph+

0ransformed to a discharge hydrograph by

application of a rating curve

0ypically are comple, multiple peak curves

(vailable on the eb
%eal Hydrographs
Hydrographs

"ntroduction

0here are many types of hydrographs

" ill present one type as an e,ample

0his is a science ith lots of art7

(ssumptions

Linearity - hydrographs can be superimposed

$eak discharge is proportional to runoff rateB

B %e-uired for linearity
Hydrograph 4omenclature
storm of #uration #
$recipitation
$
#ischarge
F
baseflo
peak flo
ne baseflo
0ime
t
p
3o rainfall
t
l
4%CSB #imensionless 'nit
Hydrograph

'nit C . inch of runoff )not rainfall+ in . hour

Can be scaled to other depths and times

1ased on unit hydrographs from many atersheds

/.///
/.>//
/.?//
/.@//
/.://
..///
/ . > < ? =
t3tp
F
3
F
p
B 4atural %esources Conservation Service
4%CS #imensionless 'nit
Hydrograph
0
p
the time from the beginning of the rainfall
to peak discharge OhrP
0
l
the lag time from the centroid of
rainfall to peak discharge OhrP
# the duration of rainfall OhrP )# Q /.>= t
l
+
)use se-uence of storms of short duration+
F
p
peak discharge OcfsP
( drainage area Omi
>
P
L length to atershed divide in feet
S average atershed slope
C44%CS curve number
t
p

D
2
+ t
l
Q
p

484A
t
p
/.=
/.9
/.:
L
l
.;///S
;
C4
.///
t

,
_

!all Creek 'nit Hydrograph

L .= miles :/*/// ft
S /./.
C4 9/ )soil C* oods+
0
l
.? hr
Let # C . hr
0
p
.?.= hr
(rea C .>@ mi
>
F
p
?>// cfs
t
p

D
2
+ t
l
Q
p

484A
t
p
/.=
/.9
/.:
L
l
.;///S
;
C4
.///
t

,
_

Storm Hydrograph

Calculate incremental runoff for each hour

during storm using soil-cover comple, method

Scale 4%CS dimensionless unit hydrograph by

$eak flo

0ime to peak

%unoff depth for each hour )relative to . inch+

(dd unit hydrographs for each hour of the storm

)shifted in time+ to get storm hydrograph

,
_

runoff .R
runoff actual ?:?
p
p
t
A
Q
(ddition of Hydrographs
/.//
/./>
/./?
/./@
/./:
/../
/..>
/..?
/..@
/..:
/.>/
/ > ? @ : ./
time (hr)
Q
/
Q
p
F hr.
F hr>
F hr<
F+ hr?
F hr=
F hr@
F
ma,
C /.>)?>// cfs+ C >? m
<
3s
What are 4%CS Limitations8

4o sno melt

4o rain on sno

Lumped model )infiltration3runoff over

entire atershed is characteriKed by a single
number+

Stream flo model is simplistic )reduced to

a time of concentration+
Hydrology Summary

0echni-ues to predict stream flos

Historical record )'S5S+

E,trapolate from adIoining atersheds

Estimate based on precipitation

%ainfall
%unoff
Stream !lo
%ational Method
4%CS Soil Cover Comple, Method
4%CS Hydrograph
%ain gages
Synthetic Storm
Si,mile Creek

/?><<<//-- Si,mile Creek (t 1ethel 5rove 46

http233aterdata.usgs.gov3ny3nis3uv8siteAnoC/?><<<//
%unoff events caused
by...
Sno melt
%ainfall
Where (re We 5oing8

We ant to protect against system failure during

e,treme events )floods and droughts+

4eed tools to predict magnitude of those events

We have to data sources

Stream gage stations

%ain gage

What do you do if you donJt have either data

source8
Watersheds of the 'nited States
Where #oes &ur
Water 5o8
http233-atlas.usgs.gov
Classic Watershed
Loer Mississippi %egion
Loer %ed-&uachita
%ain 5age SiKe
%ational !ormula E,ample

Suppose it rains /.>=M in </ minutes on !all

Creek atershed and runoff coefficient is
/.>=. What is the peak flo8
CIA Q
p

( )
( )

,
_

,
_

>
>
>
=>:/
.>@
sec @/
min .
.>
.
min </
>= . /
>= . /
mi
ft
mi
in
ft in
Q
p
s m cfs Q
p
3 ..=/ @=/ * ?/
<

$eak flo in record as ?=/ m
<
3s. What is rong8
Method not valid for storms ith duration less than t
c
.
4%CS 'nit Hydrograph E,ample

Suppose it rains .M in </ minutes on !all

Creek atershed and produces .3?M of
runoff. What is the peak flo8
$eak flo in record as ?=/ m
<
3s. What is rong8
Method not valid for storms ith duration less than t
c
.
!all Creek 'nit Hydrograph
L .= miles :/*/// ft
S /./.
C4 9/ )soil C* oods+
0
l
.? hr
Let # C /.= hr
0
p
.?.>= hr
(rea C .>@ mi
>
F
p
?>// cfs
t
p

D
2
+ t
l
Q
p

484A
t
p
/.=
/.9
/.:
L
l
.;///S
;
C4
.///
t

,
_

Stage Measurements
http233h>o.er.usgs.gov3public3pubs3circ..><3collection.htmlSH#%:
Stilling ell
1ubbler system2 the shelter and recorders can
be located hundreds of feet from the stream.
(n orifice is attached securely belo the
ater surface and connected to the
instrumentation by a length of tubing.
$ressuriKed gas )usually nitrogen or air+ is
forced through the tubing and out the orifice.
1ecause the pressure in the tubing is a
function of the depth of ater over the orifice*
a change in the stage of the river produces a
corresponding change in pressure in the
tubing. Changes in the pressure in the tubing
are recorded and are converted to a record of
the river stage.
Stilling ell
#ischarge Measurements

0he 'S5S makes more than @/*///

discharge measurements each year

Most commonly use velocity-area

method
0he idth of the stream is divided into a number of incrementsT the siKe of the
increments depends on the depth and velocity of the stream. 0he purpose is to divide
the section into about >= increments ith appro,imately e-ual discharges. !or each
incremental idth* the stream depth and average velocity of flo are measured. !or
each incremental idth* the meter is placed at a depth here average velocity is
e,pected to occur. 0hat depth has been determined to be about /.@ of the distance from
the ater surface to the streambed hen depths are shallo. When depths are large*
the average velocity is best represented by averaging velocity readings at /.> and /.:
of the distance from the ater surface to the streambed. 0he product of the idth*
depth* and velocity of the section is the discharge through that increment of the cross
section. 0he total of the incremental section discharges e-uals the discharge of the
river.
Stage-discharge2
(n Ever-changing %elationship

Sediment and other material

may be eroded from or
deposited on the streambed or
banks

5roth of vegetation along the

banks and a-uatic groth in
the channel itself can impede
the velocity* as can deposition
of doned trees in the channel

"ce and sno can produce

large changes in stage-
discharge relations* and the
degree of change can vary
dramatically ith time
Storm Hydrograph
Wynoochee %iver 4ear Montesano in Washington
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
14 16 18 20 22 24
day in March 1997
D
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
m
3
/
s
)
!
l
o

)
m
<
3
s
+