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Matakuliah : I0262-Statiatik Probabilitas

Tahun : 2007

Pertemuan 01

PENDAHULUAN:
Data dan Statistika

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Outline Materi:
• Peranan dan Jangkauan Statistika
• Diagram Dahan dan Daun
• Sebaran Frekuensi

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Business Basic Statistics

Introduction and Data


Collection

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PERANAN DAN Jangkauan
Statistika

• Why a Manager Needs to Know About


Statistics
• The Growth and Development of Modern
Statistics
• Some Important Definitions
• Descriptive Versus Inferential Statistics

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Peranan dan Jangkauan Statistika

(continue
• Why Data are Needed d)
• Types of Data and Their Sources
• Design of Survey Research
• Types of Sampling Methods
• Types of Survey Errors

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Why a Manager Needs to Know
About Statistics

• To Know How to Properly Present


Information
• To Know How to Draw Conclusions about
Populations Based on Sample Information
• To Know How to Improve Processes
• To Know How to Obtain Reliable Forecasts

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The Growth and Development of
Modern Statistics

Needs of government to
collect data on its citizenry

The development of the


mathematics of probability
theory

The advent of the computer 7


Some Important Definitions

• A Population (Universe) is the Whole Collection of


Things Under Consideration
• A Sample is a Portion of the Population Selected
for Analysis
• A Parameter is a Summary Measure Computed to
Describe a Characteristic of the Population
• A Statistic is a Summary Measure Computed to
Describe a Characteristic of the Sample

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Population and Sample

Population Sample
Use statistics to
summarize
features
Use parameters to
summarize
features

Inference on the population from the sample


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Statistical Methods

• Descriptive Statistics
– Collecting and describing data
• Inferential Statistics
– Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based only on
sample data

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Descriptive Statistics

• Collect Data
– E.g., Survey
• Present Data
– E.g., Tables and graphs
• Characterize Data
– E.g., Sample Mean = ∑X i

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Inferential Statistics

• Estimation
– E.g., Estimate the
population mean weight
using the sample mean
weight
• Hypothesis Testing
– E.g., Test the claim that
the population mean
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
weight is 120apounds
concerning population based on sample results.
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Why We Need Data

• To Provide Input to Survey


• To Provide Input to Study
• To Measure Performance of Ongoing
Service or Production Process
• To Evaluate Conformance to Standards
• To Assist in Formulating Alternative
Courses of Action
• To Satisfy Curiosity
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Data Sources

Data Sources

Print or Electronic
Observation Survey

Experimentation

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Types of Data

D a t a

C a t e g o r i Nc ua lm e r i c a l
( Q u a l i t a ( t Qi v u e a ) n t i t a t i v e )

D i s c r e Ct e o n t i n u o u

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Design of Survey Research

• Choose an Appropriate Mode of Response


– Reliable primary modes
• Personal interview
• Telephone interview
• Mail survey
– Less reliable self-selection modes (not appropriate
for making inferences about the population)
• Television survey
• Internet survey
• Printed survey in newspapers and magazines
• Product or service questionnaires

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Reasons for Drawing a
Sample

• Less Time Consuming Than a Census


• Less Costly to Administer Than a Census
• Less Cumbersome and More Practical to
Administer Than a Census of the
Targeted Population

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Types of Sampling Methods

Samples

Non-Probability Probability Samples


Samples
(Convenience)
Simple
Random Stratified
Judgement Chunk
Cluster
Systematic
Quota
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Probability Sampling

• Subjects of the Sample are Chosen Based


on Known Probabilities

Probability Samples

Simple
Random Systematic Stratified Cluster

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Organizing Numerical Data

Numerical Data 41, 24, 32, 26, 27, 27, 30, 24, 38, 21

Frequency Distributions
Ordered Array
Cumulative Distributions
21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 38, 41

2 144677
Stem and Leaf Histograms Ogive
3 028
Display
4 1
Tables Polygons
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Stem and Leaf Display

• Data in Raw Form (as Collected): (continued)

24, 26, 24, 21, 27, 27, 30, 41, 32, 38


• Data in Ordered Array from Smallest to
Largest:
Largest
21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 38, 41
• Stem-and-Leaf Display:
2 144677
3 028

4 1

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Tabulating and Graphing
Numerical Data

Numerical Data 41, 24, 32, 26, 27, 27, 30, 24, 38, 21

Frequency Distributions
Ordered Array O give

Cumulative Distributions 120

100

21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 38, 41


80

60
40

20
0
10 20 30 40 50 60

2 144677 Ogive
Stem and Leaf Histograms
Display 3 028 7

4 1 5

Tables Polygons
4
3

2
1
0
10 20 30 40 50 60

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Tabulating Numerical Data:
Frequency Distributions

• Sort Raw Data in Ascending Order


12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58

• Find Range: 58 - 12 = 46
• Select Number of Classes: 5 (usually between 5 and 15)
• Compute Class Interval (Width): 10 (46/5 then round up)
• Determine Class Boundaries (Limits):10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60
• Compute Class Midpoints: 15, 25, 35, 45, 55
• Count Observations & Assign to Classes

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Frequency Distributions, Relative Frequency
Distributions and Percentage Distributions

Data in Ordered Array:


12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58

Relative
Class Frequency Frequency Percentage
10 but under 20 3 .15 15
20 but under 30 6 .30 30
30 but under 40 5 .25 25
40 but under 50 4 .20 20
50 but under 60 2 .10 10
Total 20 1 100 24
Graphing Numerical Data:
The Histogram

Data in Ordered Array:


12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
Histogram

7 6
6 5
Frequency

5 4
4
3
3 No Gaps
2
2 Between
1 0 0
0 Bars
5 15 25 35 45 55 More

Class 25
Class Midpoints
Boundaries
Graphing Numerical Data:
The Frequency Polygon

Data in Ordered Array:


12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
Frequency

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
5 15 25 35 45 55 More

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Class Midpoints
Tabulating Numerical Data:
Cumulative Frequency

Data in Ordered Array:


12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58

Lower Cumulative Cumulative


Limit Frequency % Frequency
10 0 0
20 3 15
30 9 45
40 14 70
50 18 90
60 20 100 27
Graphing Numerical Data:
The Ogive (Cumulative % Polygon)

Data in Ordered Array :


12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
Ogive

100

80

60
40

20

0
10 20 30 40 50 60

Class Boundaries (Not Midpoints) 28


Graphing Bivariate Numerical
Data (Scatter Plot)

M u tu a l F u n d s S c a tte r P lo t
40
30
Date Return (%)
Total Year to

20
10
0
0 10 20 30 40
N et Asset V alu es 29
Tabulating and Graphing
Univariate Categorical Data

Categorical Data

Graphing Data
Tabulating Data
The Summary Table
Pie Charts

Bar Charts Pareto Diagram

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Graphing Univariate
Categorical Data

Categorical Data

Graphing Data
Tabulating Data
The Summary Table
Pie Charts
CD

S aving s

B on ds Bar Charts Pareto Diagram


S toc k s
45 120
0 10 20 30 40 50 40
100
35
30 80
25
20
15
60

40
31
10
20
5
0 0
Bar Chart
(for an Investor’s Portfolio)

Investor's Portfolio

Savings
CD
Bonds
Stocks

0 10 20 30 40 50
Amount in K$

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Pie Chart
(for an Investor’s Portfolio)

Amount Invested in K$

Savings
15%

Stocks
CD 42%
14%

Percentages are
rounded to the
Bonds
nearest percent
29%

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Pareto Diagram

45% 100%

40% 90%

80%
Axis for 35%

bar 30%
70%

chart 25%
60%

shows 50%

% 20%
40%

invested 15%
30%
in each 10%
20%
category Axis for line
5%
graph
10%

0%
Stocks Bonds Savings CD
0%
shows
cumulative
% invested
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