Matakuliah : I0262 – Statistik Probabilitas

Tahun : 2007
Versi : Revisi

Pertemuan 03
Teori Peluang (Probabilitas)

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 Learning Outcomes

Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa

akan mampu :
• Mahasiswa akan dapat menjelaskan
ruang contoh dan peluang kejadian.
• mahasiswa dapat memberi contoh
peluang kejadian bebas, bersyarat dan
kaidah Bayes.

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 Outline Materi

• Istilah/ notasi dalam peluang

• Diagram Venn dan Operasi Himpunan
• Peluang kejadian
• Kaidah-kaidah peluang
• Peluang bersyarat, kejadian bebas dan
kaidah Bayes

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 Introduction to Probability

• Experiments, Counting Rules, and

Assigning Probabilities
• Events and Their Probability
• Some Basic Relationships of Probability
• Conditional Probability
• Bayes’ Theorem

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 Probability

• Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood

that an event will occur.
• Probability values are always assigned on a scale
from 0 to 1.
• A probability near 0 indicates an event is very
unlikely to occur.
• A probability near 1 indicates an event is almost
certain to occur.
• A probability of 0.5 indicates the occurrence of the
event is just as likely as it is unlikely.

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 Counting Rule for Combinations
Another useful counting rule enables us to count
the
number of experimental outcomes when n
objects are to
be selected from a set of N objects.
• Number of combinations of N objects taken n
at a time N N  N!
Cn =   =
 n  n!(N − n)!

where N! = N(N - 1)(N - 2) . . . (2)(1)

n! = n(n - 1)( n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1
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 Counting Rule for Permutations

A third useful counting rule enables us to count the

number of experimental outcomes when n objects
are to
be selected from a set of N objects where the
order of
selection is important.
• Number of permutations of N objects taken n at
a time
N N!
PnN = n!  =
 n  (N − n)!
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 Complement of an Event
• The complement of event A is defined to be the
event consisting of all sample points that are not
in A.
• The complement of A is denoted by Ac.
• The Venn diagram below illustrates the concept
of a complement. Sample Space S

Event A Ac

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 Union of Two Events
• The union of events A and B is the event
containing all sample points that are in A or B or
both.
• The union is denoted by A ∪ B.
• The union of A and B is illustrated below.
Sample Space S

Event A Event B

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 Intersection of Two Events
• The intersection of events A and B is the set of
all sample points that are in both A and B.
• The intersection is denoted by A ∩ Β .
• The intersection of A and B is the area of
overlap in the illustration below.
Intersection Sample Space S

Event A Event B

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 Addition Law

• The addition law provides a way to

compute the probability of event A, or B,
or both A and B occurring.

• The law is written as:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

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 Mutually Exclusive Events

• Addition Law for Mutually Exclusive

Events
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

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 Conditional Probability

• The probability of an event given that another

event has occurred is called a conditional
probability.
• The conditional probability of A given B is
denoted by P(A|B).
• A conditional probability is computed as
follows:

P( A ∩ B)
P ( A| B ) =
P( B)

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 Multiplication Law

• The multiplication law provides a way to

compute the probability of an
intersection of two events.
• The law is written as:

P(A ∩ B) = P(B)P(A|B)

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 Independent Events

• Events A and B are independent if

P(A|B) = P(A).

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 Independent Events

• Multiplication Law for Independent Events

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)

• The multiplication law also can be used as

a test to see if two events are
independent.

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Contoh Soal: L. S. Clothiers

• Tree Diagram
P(B|A1) = .2 P(A1 ∩ B) = .14

P(A1) = .7
P(Bc|A1) = .8 P(A1 ∩ Bc) = .56

P(B|A2) = .9 P(A2 ∩ B) = .27

P(A2) = .3

P(Bc|A2) = .1 P(A2 ∩ Bc) = .03

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 Bayes’ Theorem

• To find the posterior probability that event Ai will occur

given that event B has occurred we apply Bayes’
theorem.

P ( Ai ) P ( B| Ai )
P ( Ai | B ) =
P ( A1 ) P ( B| A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B| A2 ) +... + P ( An ) P ( B| An )

• Bayes’ theorem is applicable when the events for which

we want to compute posterior probabilities are mutually
exclusive and their union is the entire sample space.

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• Selamat Belajar Semoga Sukses.

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