ELECTRICAL POWER

DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEMS PLANNING

By, Dr. M. K. KHEDKAR

1

Introduction

Power System load forecasting is an important subject both

in power system planning as well as in on-line power system
operation.
In recent years, significant variations between supply of and
demand for electricity have led to violent price swings on
the wholesale market.
To minimize our vulnerability to market volatility, we want
to optimize our load forecasting accuracy so that we can
enhance distribution system efficiency by ensuring that we
use what we have scheduled and schedule what we will use.
More accurate forecasting capability can also enable us to
negotiate more profitable power purchases between utilities,
retail companies, power generators and in Independent
System Operator (ISO) scheduling environments.
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Power Loads: Load

Demand

Load requirement for an area depends on its

terrain, population and their living standards,
present and future development plans, cost of
power etc.
In India, annual power survey committees are
entrusted with the task of preparing the national
prospective demand of power under the auspices
of the CEA.

The 16th Electric Power Survey

of India
Category

1997-98

2004-05

Domestic

20.69%

22.99%

Commercial

6.91%

6.92%

Agriculture

30.54%

26.98%

Industry

35.22%

37.22%

Others

6.65%

5.89%

Total

100%

100%
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Load Characteristics
a) Nature of loads

It is necessary to know the general nature of load

which is characterized by:

Demand factor
Load factor
Power factor
Diversity factor
Utilization factor

b) Types of loads

In general, they can be divided into various

categories
Domestic: Demand factor=70 to 100%
Diversity factor= 1.2-1.3
Load factor=10-15%
Commercial: Demand factor= 90-100%
Diversity factor= 1.1-1.2
Load factor=25-30%
6

Continued

Industrial:
Cottage
<5KW
Small scale 5-25KW
Medium scale
25-100KW
Large scale 100-500KW
Heavy industries >500KW
Demand factor=70-80%
Load factor=60-65%
7

Continued

Municipal: Demand factor=100%

Diversity factor=1
Agriculture: Load factor=15-20%
Diversity factor=1-1.5
Demand factor=90-100%
Other loads: Apart from the above, there are
other loads such as bulk supplies, special
industries such as paper, textile, etc. and
traction and government loads, which have their
own peculiar characteristics.
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SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING

Short Term Forecast has to be simple, speedy and robust.

Short term load forecasting for operational planning is
necessary not only for arranging the operational plan of
the next 24 hours which generator of which power plant
has to be put into operation, or how much load it should
share, or which generator has to be taken out of
commission but also for meeting the load change of the
coming hours.
Generally the daily load change follows the daily pattern,
which is different between week days and weekend days.
But it is subjected to weather change rather sharply, and
the weather change is more often than not t o be predicted
not very accurately either in magnitude or in time.

SHORT TERM LOAD

FORECASTING

The load-forecasting algorithm can go to great

complexity, but still it cannot be better than the
experienced engineer's judgments. It is felt that what
the operator needs for on-line forecasting is fairly
accurate software, simple to handle. For on-line load
forecasting, speed is, of course, of paramount
importance.
Short-term load forecasting plays an important role
in electric power system operation and planning. An
accurate load forecasting not only reduces the
generation cost in a power system, but also provides a
good principle of effective operation.
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SHORT TERM LOAD

FORECASTING

ARIMA model and transfer function model are

applied to the short-term load forecasting by
considering weather-load relationship. For four
types of customers in Taiwan power (Taipower)
system, residential load, commercial load, office
load and industrial load customers, the summer
ARIMA model transfer function model has been
derived to precede the short-term load forecasting
during one week.
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LONG TERM ENERGY

FORECASTING:
In power system planning, no matter whether the planning

period is 5 years or 50 years, the planner has to forecast

the load for all these years within the planning period.
The accuracy of prediction influences greatly the capital
investment and is therefore very important.
When numerous energy sources and their development
schemes are involved there could be a great number of
construction alternatives to fit the estimated load growth
and there could be different orders, or sequences of putting
them into commission

12

Disadvantages of Long Term

Forecasting
Long-term Load Model is Complicated and

strongly influenced by Weather

Long term load forecasting for a planning period
of, say 25-50 or more years has such a far remote
target that the objective is usually of very
uncertain nature.
Yet certain possibilistic estimate is required. It has
to be re-estimated and revised as often as
necessary, semi-annually or even quarterly or
whenever some new important issues are foreseen.

13

Disadvantages of Long Term

Forecasting

In such uncertain cases, planner needs to take new data or

make new assumptions to forecasting.
Then different planners will make different assumptions in
the revision process, and when the decision-makers
involved are numerous, the number of cases to be studied
might be enormous. It is very desirable to do the forecast
as quickly and as easy as the planner wishes.
Hence, speed of computation and easiness of use of the
software by the planner are more important than the
unwarranted accuracy under the condition of great
number of cases to be handled and the wide range of
variations.

14

Long Term Forecasting

Forecasting annual peak load demand and annual energy

demand for a number of years ahead has a vital role in the
context of generation, transmission and distribution
network planning in a power system.
An approach to forecasting energy is that based on an enduse model. In the end-use method, energy forecast is based
on the estimated energy use of all load categories in
different sectors.
Typical sectors include residential, industrial, commercial
and service sectors. Within each sector, load categories or
components are identified. For example, in residential
sector, the load categories include air-conditioning and
heating, lighting, refrigeration, washing, and cooking.

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Long Term Forecasting

Average energy use in each load category is then needed in

the forecast. The growth rates in the use of individual load
components are also required.
In principle, the end-use approach is an appealing one.
However, there is difficulty in collecting data which is
essential for use in the forecast. Extensive customer
surveys are required in categorizing load components and
their use.

16

Regression Analysis

1.

2.

Trend:

It is the study of the behavior of a time series

or a process in the past and its mathematical
modeling so that future behavior can be
extrapolated from it. Two general approaches
followed for trend analysis are:
The fitting of continuous mathematical functions
through actual data, to achieve the least overall
error, known as regression analysis.
The fitting of a sequence on discontinuous lines
or curves to the data.
The latter is more prevalent in short-term
forecasting.

17

1.
2.
3.

4.

A time varying event, such as power system load can be

broken down into the following 4 major components:
Basic trend
Seasonal variation
Cyclic variation which includes influences of periods
longer than the above and causes the load pattern to be
repeated for every 2-3 years (or even longer cycles)
Random variations which occur on account of the day-today changes and in the case of power systems, is usually
dependent on the time of the week e.g. weekend, weekday, weather etc.
The last 3 variations have a long-term mean of zero.

18

In load forecasting, either a continual variation

process model can be used, or only certain points at
regular intervals of the process.
For example, either a complete load curve for a
power system could be predicted, or, alternatively,
only the yearly system peak demands. In the latter
case, the process is modeled as time series.
The reason for this is that often, in power system
planning, the network plant capacity is designed
around the maximum system peak for the year,
although the cyclic overloading factors are
embodied in the design. Thus, interest is only
centered on the yearly system peaks and not on the
whole load curve.
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Examples:

Linear trend
A past trend where the increase in
consumption from year to year is more or
less constant
On an arithmetical graph, it will give a
straight line
In real life, such a growth trend is unlikely
in the power supply industry
Mathematical expression:

Ct=a + bt
20

Exponential trend

In this case, past data are drawn on a logarithmic

scale to give straight line projection for forecasting.
Mathematical expression:

Ct=C0 (1+m)t
Where m= mean annual rate of growth observed
during t years

By converting to logarithms, the graph

becomes a straight line

21

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING

Technology forecasting is the process of discovering and

communicating probable technical capabilities in order to
make better decisions, gain competitive advantage and
prevent surprises.
Technology forecasting concentrates on discovering the
direction, rate, and nature of the changes taking place in
technologies.
The tools available for accomplishing these tasks fall into
four general categories of techniques: surveillance, trend
analysis, expert opinion, and integrative.
The techniques within the four are aimed at discerning the
probable capabilities at the three levels of technology
(direct, supportive, and enabling).
The types of techniques used and the efforts employed to
forecast are dependent on a series of both internal and
external factors.
22

Technological Forecasting
Methods
Numerical Data-Based Technological Forecasting
Techniques

Trend Extrapolation
Trend Extrapolation, Qualitative Approaches
Growth Curves
Envelop Curves
Substitution Model

Judgment-Based Technological Forecasting

Techniques

Monitoring
Network Analysis
Morphological Analysis
Relevance Trees
Delphi Method
Cross-Impact Analysis
23

NEED BASED ENERGY

MANAGEMENT

In power sector there is a distinct difference between

demand and need.
Consumers of electric power could be classified into five
broad categories: the industrial users, agricultural sector,
commercial organizations, domestic consumers and
essential services. Industrial users could be further sub
-divided as shift based industries and continuous process
industries. Agricultural sector would include irrigation
tube wells and rural industries.
Out of these several groups and sub-groups, only three
viz- continuous process industries, domestic consumers
and essential services need power round the clock, other
may demand power for 24 hours of the day, but they dont
need it.
24

Need Based Energy

Management Includes:

Identifying the needs of various consumers.

Forecasting the generation requirement based
on the need.
Plan power generation as per forecast.
Lay down a suitable transmission and
distribution network.
Regulation of distribution as per need.
Monitor matching of need with supply.
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The Distinct Advantages of

It ensures high reliability of supply to consumers meeting
NBEM
the specific demand effectively for periods of actual

requirements.
The system losses can be substantially reduced since line
and equipment does not get overloaded at any point of
time.
The voltage profile at all levels is improved thus
safeguarding the customers equipment from losing their
efficiency and performance at low voltage.
The scheme facilitates the adoption of energy conservation
schemes and energy audit policy.
Power cuts are reduced and quality of power improves
leading to better industrial and agricultural health and
productivity.
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THANK YOU
Dr. M K KHEDKAR

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