S&P 500 Weekly ~ Duration Analysis

<B> As has been demonstrated in previous reports, it’s difficult to know precisely where
1576 the Cycle <B> wave actually concluded. We won’t know this answer until the next
<B> wave down takes shape. What we do know, however, is that this currently rally is
1524 now occupying a sufficient amount of time relative to the previous decline that bulls
should be cautious about an inflection point. For instance, if the wave from 1440
<B>  667 was a Primary -1- of <C>, then the current Primary -2- has occupied a
1440 similar amount of time to Wave -1- and the market should rollover very soon. If,
however, the <B> concluded earlier, at either 1576 or 1524, then we’re now at 3/5th
and 2/3rd duration relationships with the previous decline, which are interesting
Wave ratios.

- 73 - 64 - 41 0 + 43
- A - or -1-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Weekly ~ Time
<B>
1576
There’s a tendency for waves to take much longer to complete than can be anticipated. For
instance, there are some Ellioticians that are bracing for a Primary Wave-3 lower. While
that’s possible, it’s equally possible that the rally we’ve witnessed is merely the first wave up
<B> of a more complicated correction. In fact, if this is a Primary -B- wave, and not a Wave -II-,
1440 then it will likely to take much longer to complete. So, when this market does correct 30%
next year, and people start talking about taking out the lows, this chart should be considered.

( C ) of - B - or - II -

(A)

Both of these moves would

be fun to ride.
End of 2011?

(B)

73 Week - A - Wave 146 Week - B - Wave?

667
- A - or - I -

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

<B>
1576

<B>
S&P 500 Weekly ~Fibonacci Analysis
1440

These various Fibonacci retracements are getting some analysts very excited.
However, it’s less likely for a counter-trend wave to adhere to a Fibbo
retrace. The notable guideline is that a Wave-2 should not retrace much
more than 61.8%. So, if the move from 1440  667 was a Primary -1-, then
1,445 should NOT be decisively bettered.

If the move from 1576  667 was a Primary-1,

as many orthodox Ellioticians believe, then
1,229 should not be decisively bettered. Any
solid break of that level would put a major
hole in that big Primary Wave -1- theory.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
S&P 500 Daily ~ A Triple Zig-Zag Nearing Conclusion “c”

“a”
“x”
(Y)
“c”
“b”
Reprinted from 12/20/09
“a”
“y”
“w”
(X)
(W) “b”

869
(X)

This market is running out of possible outcomes at this point. This is a ‘popular’ count among some
Elliotticians, and there aren’t too many faults with the logic here. The biggest issue with this model
lies with “c” in (Y). It’s too short-lived, but in terms of “orthodox” Elliott Wave analysis, there is
nothing wrong with this model. With this count, we’ve got one more wave higher that can take the
S&P to at least 1145. A more likely target would be 1177, for an “a”=“c”

Bulls who believe in this count should treat 1061 as critical medium
term support. A break below 1061 would KILL this model.
667
-A-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
S&P 500 Daily ~ A Triple Zig-Zag Nearing Conclusion? “c”

1
“a”
“x”
(Y) 2
“c”
“b”

“a” 1029/1033
“w” “y”
“b” (X)
(W)

869
(X)

This is a model that’s been highlighted for several weeks now, and it’s a popular one among many
technicians. There are some problems with it (i.e. the “c” in (Y) is too short lived), but the bottom
line is that “something” concluded around 1029/1033. Therefore, we should be able to count out a
wave from that area. From that level, it’s now possible to see an “abc” taking shape, but for now the
“c”-wave is too short in price and duration. This model should take the S&P to at least 1145, but a
more likely target would be 1177, for an “a”=“c”

667
-A-
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 (Z)
“c”
S&P 500 (120 min.) ~ A “c” Wave Begins 3

alt: “c” wave failure

1 4

“a” b
5 d

3
2
1103

1094
4 e
1086 “b”
a c

1
This count represents my best interpretation of the price action up from 1033. The “a” wave was an
‘impulse’ that only witnessed a shallow correction. Under this model, the “c” wave MUST be an
‘impulsive’ five wave advance. Admittedly, the “b” wave was a MESS, and the current ascent beginning
at 1094 does not look ‘impulsive,’ so confidence is not great here. A break below 1103 would suggest
this model is WRONG and there is something else transpiring.

1033
(X)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
S&P 500 March Futures (240 min.) ~ “c”

An Irregular “b” wave? Reprinted from 12/20/09

b d
“a” -c-
5
-b-
-b-
3
-a-
“throw over?”

-a-
e
-b- 1080 “b”
4 -a- -c-
c

-c-
1
a

This would be the bullish way to interpret the same price action. This would be quite bullish and should
be evidenced by an “impulsive” thrust higher over the next few weeks. One of the aspects that makes
this model more convincing is the “a” wave did look more like an “impulsive” five wave advance.

Under this model, the 1080 level (Mar Futures) should not be broken.

(X)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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