MD.

MINHAZ
BIN SALIM

ID : 17048

NAME

ID

MD.Minhaz Bin Salim

17048

Jotirmoy dhar

17081

Motahar Hassain

17255

MD.Rokonuzzaman

17098

This study explored historical food availability/supply

and the market demand for food. Secondary data
was used for analyzing demand-supply gap. Agrarian
economy of Bangladesh, domestic food production
has an important role to play in the quest for food
security. The productivity in the agricultural sector is
critically important if agricultural production is to
increase at a sufficiently rapid rate to meet
escalating demands for food.

(Hayami and Ruttan, 1985; Mellor, 1976). Major

food items in Bangladesh are rice, wheat, pulses,
potato,vegetables and fish. These food items
contribute almost 85% of the total calorie and
protein intake. Rice and wheat alone contribute
to 71% and 53% of the total per capita calorie
and protein intake respectively.

The average growth in rice production was 2.9% per

year in 1971/72 to 2010/11, of which 93% was
contributed by yield growth. The overall growth rate
of area under food grain was 0.3% in 1971/72 to
2010/11. The overall food grain production growth
rate is higher than population growth rate from
1971/72 to 2010/11.

The own price and income elasticities of rice

were -0.108 and 0.199 respectively. It was
projected that upto 2021, the
annual demand for food exceed the supply of
food which were -0.28% for rice and -1.76%
for wheat. That implies the demands are
greater than the supplies for both crops.

ROKONUZZAMAN

ID :17098

Some equation
Market demand= Total demand - Total distribution
Total Demand= Consumption + stock
Consumption =Total Production + Aid + Import

Annual growth rates of area

Period

Aus

Aman

Boro

Total
Rice

Wheat

Total
food

19711980

0.6

0.9

1.3

0.8

13.9

1.1

19811990

-3.0

-1.2

8.0

-0.1

0.7

-0.1

19912000

-4.1

-0.5

3.7

0.1

4.6

0.4

20002009

-5.3

-2.2

2.8

-0.06

-10.1

-0.5

19712009

-3.8

-0.2

4.7

0.2

3.6

0.3

Annual growth rates of production

Period

Aus

Aman

Boro

Total Rice

Wheat

Total food
grain

19711980

3.6

3.7

1.4

3.2

26.8

3.8

19811990

-2.2

.8

8.3

2.3

-1.4

2.1

19912000

-3.0

-0.4

5.7

2.0

7.6

2.4

20012009

-1.4

0.9

7.3

4.2

-7.9

3.6

19712009

-1.9

1.7

6.7

2.9

5.5

3.0

Annual growth rates of yield of food

grain in Bangladesh
Period

Aus

Amon

Boro

Total Rice

Wheat

Total food
grain

19711980

3.2

2.8

0.0

2.4

12.9

7.9

19811990

0.7

1.9

0.3

2.4

-2.4

-0.2

19912000

1.1

0.1

2.4

1.8

3.2

2.5

20012009

9.1

1.6

10.0

6.9

-0.9

3.6

19712009

2.3

1.9

2.3

2.9

1.5

2.2

JOTIRMOYDHAR

ID :17048

Annual growth rates of Population

period

Growth rate

1971-1980

2.67

1981-1990

2.35

1991-2000

1.73

2000-2009

2.11

Compering Growth rates

4

3.8
3.6

2.67

2.35
2.1

2.4
1.73

2.11

Production
population

1
population

0
1971-80

1981-90

Production
1991-00

2001-09

Production of fish, meat, milk and egg

period
1971/72-1973/74
1981/82-1983/84
1991/92-1993/94
2002/03-2004/05
2006/07-2008/09

4000
3000
2000
1000
0

Fish
792.7
686.7
945.9
1998.2
2563.30

Meat
236.5
224.0
327.6
448.6
593.2

Milk
1100.9
1199.1
1173.1
2262.9
3059.8

Egg
58.0
70.0
92.8
160.5
281.0

Fish
Milk
Fish

Meat
Milk
Egg

Imports of food
Period
1971-1980

Public imports
Rice-----wheat
508 -----1181

Private import
Rice-----wheat
---

1981-1990

266.5-----1571.5

--

1991-2000

131.1-----1085.6

677.3---401.6

2001-2009

81.6------1530.1

718.4 ---667.0

--

Imports of other food crops and

animal products
Food Item

1971-73

1981-83

1991-93

2003-05

2006-08

pulses

2.54

72.38

363.47

522.92

Potatoes

43.27

30.5

52.14

100.16

150.22

Vegetables

7.17

86.3

418.13

300.4

Fruits

18.67

25.91

182.01

254.33

Fish

0.13

0.01

0.07

3.39

5.24

Meat

0.01

0.73

4.17

9.71

Milk

88.89

217.55

281.61

307.77

342.70

Egg

0.06

Food aid and share of rice and wheat

period

Rice

Wheat

1971-1980

136.8

1021.6

1981-1990

93.0

1128.9

1991-2000

14.3

944.3

2001-2009

14.8

293.8

Comparing Food aid(%)

1981-90

1971-80

7.6

11.8
rice

wheat

wheat
92.4

88.2

1991-00

Rice

2001-09

1.5
4.8

98.5

Wheat

Wheat

Rice

rice
95.2

MOTAHAR
HOSSAIN

ID :17255

Projected annual rates of growth in food grain

requirements, production growth rates, and
demand-supply gaps, 2020/21
Food
grain

Projected
production
growth
(2004/052020/21)
(Percent/year

Projected
Supplyconsumption Demand gap
growth
(Percent/year
(2004/052021)
(Percent/year

Rice

2.30

2.59

-0.28

Wheat

3.80

5.56

-1.76

National per capita food grain consumption gap

1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03

2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08

Production and post harvest losses of crops in 200405

35
30

Production
(million M. tons)

25
20

Post harvest losses

(million M. tons)

15

% of loss in total
production

10
5
0

Cereals

Pulses

Vegetables

Fruits

Domestic food production has an important role to play for

food security in Bangladesh. Although the
acreage of food grain production shrinkage, but production of
food grain increases due to increase in per
acre yield and better management of post harvest losses.
The coefficient of rice price elasticity is -0.108 and the income
elasticity is 0.199 both are significant at the
10% level. It is shown from the study that the both rice and
wheat supply-demand gap is negative which
implies the projected change in demand are greater than
supply. This analysis showed that increases in
production come mainly from yield increases. So, excess
demand should be met up by increasing yield.