Kebijakan Penanganan

Perubahan Iklim Internasional

Dr. Lawin Bastian
Sekretaris Pokja Mitigasi, DNPI
Seminar Nasional Mitigasi dan Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim
Menuju Tata Kelola Hutan dan Lahan Lestari
Jakarta, 18-19 November 2014

Brief history of Climate Change Negotiations

1988
1992
1995
1997
2001
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Establishment of IPCC
UNFCCC adopted (entry into force in 1994)
COP-1 : Berlin Mandate adopted
Kyoto Protocol adopted, entry into force in 2005; negotiation under the KP
(AWG-KP)
Marrakesh Accords (implementation rules) adopted
Bali Action Plan adopted; negotiation under the UNFCCC (AWG-LCA) launched
COP-15: Copenhagen Accord (not adopted by COP)
COP-16: Cancun Agreements
COP-17: Durban Platform Agreement; launching negotiation on 2015
Agreement
COP-18: Doha Climate Gateway (including 2CP of the KP)
COP-19: Warsaw
COP-20: Lima
COP-21: Paris (expected to adopt 2015 Agreement)

Implementation of 2020 target and Itinerary toward a new legal

instrument, to start from 2020
2012
Start in the 1st half
of 2012

2014

2015

Finish work by 2015

AWG on Durban Platform (ADP)

AWG LCA

C
O
P

18
C
Actions A
to be
taken
up to
AWG KP
2020 K
P
1st CP

2020

Adoption

Negotiati
on
toward a
new
instrume
nt from
2020

2013

Entry into
force
Ratification

IPCC AR 5
Review of long term target
(2013 ~ 2015)

C
O
P
21

Implementation of CA
Compliance assessment
of 1st CP

2nd CP (2013 ~ 2020)

Source: Takamura based on MOE

Negotiation up to 2015 (COP-21)

2013

2014

19

Preparation and
communication of INDC

June:
Negotiation
text

Elaboration
Negotiation
of N text

Consultation?

C
O
P
21
Adoption

Elaboration of elements of
negotiating text

C
O
P
20

2020

Negotiation
continues?

Ratification?

Entry into force and

implementation

C
O
P

2015

March:
Submission
of INDC
Source: Takamura

Negotiation toward a 2015 agreement

Launch a process to develop a protocol,
another legal instrument or an agreed
outcome with legal force under the
Convention applicable to all parties
A protocol
Another legal instrument
An agreed outcome with legal force

Legal binding of the instrument remains

undecided.

Perjanjian Perubahan Iklim 2015

Berdasarkan pada science.

Secara umum terdiri dari meat dan
bones.
Meat: definisi, prosedur/mekanisme, ..
Bones: rencana aksi yang dilakukan
masing-masing negara (kontribusi)
Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDC).

Pemahaman INDC
1. INDCs merefleksikan kontribusi negara untuk
mencapai tujuan Konvensi.
2. Kontribusi tersebut ditentukan berdasarkan
faktor yang dipertimbangkan relevan
(kemampuan, circumstances, global goal, dll).
3. Kontribusi hendaknya dapat dikuantifikasi.
4. Kontribusi hendaknya dilengkapi dengan
informasi sehingga dapat dimengerti (upfront
information ).

Contributions to ultimate objective of the Convention (Art.2)

stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production
is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner.

Pre-2020

Post-2020

The 2015 Agreement

Kyoto Protocol
Voluntary GHG Emissions
Reduction (RAN/RAD GRK)
26% and 41%

Law and regulation, strategy,

program
GHG Inventory
National Communication
BUR
Institutional arrangement

INDCs

Up-front
information

Average temperature < 2 C

Pandangan mempertahankan 2 C
Dalam konteks global, mitigasi merupakan
pra-syarat dari adaptasi (negara maju).
Namun dalam skala nasional, sebagian negara
memandang bahwa adaptasi merupakan prasyarat dari mitigasi (negara berkembang).
Perlu memahami Kontribusi dalam INDC.
Common but differentiated responsibility
National circumstances

Proyeksi emisi GRK

meningkat dari 1,72 to 2,95
Gton CO2e (2000-2020).

Proyeksi emisi GRK?

GHG emissions rate

Ratifikasi Konvensi dan

Kyoto Protokol

Perjanjian 2015

26
%
15%

INDCs
Target reduksi emisi?

NAMAs

2005 (Base

2020 (Baseline)

Up-front information relevant to all types of

contributions
Base year, target year/period, sector coverage, GHG coverage,
GWP, inventory methodology, use of market units, land use
approach, conditions attached to target (upper bound of
target coridor), indicators related to fairness and ambition

Up-front information relevant to specific types of

contributions
Quantified
Absolute
Target:
Projections of
emissions

Intensity
Target:
GDP in base
year

Deviation
Business-AsUsual:
Projected
emissions in
BAU for target
year/period

Set of Policies
and
Measures:
Description of
policy

Tantangan yang dihadapi

Mobilisasi sumber daya common understanding
Pengumpulan dan kualitas data
Perbaikan sistem dan kapasitas saat ini sebagai
antisipasi Perjanjian 2015

Peraturan perundang-undangan
Pengaturan kelembagaan
Strategi, program dan kegiatan
Metodologi
MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification)

Pendanaan dan peningkatan kapasitas

Penelitian dan pengembangan

Terimakasih
bastiankatoomba@yahoo.com