Ch9 06

Key Statistical Concepts
Population
a population is the group of all items of interest to a
statistics practitioner.
frequently very large; sometimes infinite.
E.g. All 5 million Florida voters, per Example 12.5
Sample
A sample is a set of data drawn from the population.
Potentially very large, but less than the population.
E.g. a sample of 765 voters exit polled on election day.
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
9.1
Key Statistical Concepts

Parameter
A descriptive measure of a population.
Statistic
A descriptive measure of a sample.
9.2
Descriptive and Inferential Statistics

Descriptive statistics are methods of organizing,
summarizing, and presenting data in a convenient and
informative way.
Descriptive Statistics describe the data set thats being
analyzed, but doesnt allow us to draw any conclusions or
make any interferences about the data.
Inferential statistics is also a set of methods, but it is used to
draw conclusions or inferences about characteristics of
populations based on data from a sample.
9.3
Chapter 9
Sampling Distributions
9.4
In real life calculating parameters of populations is

prohibitive because populations are very large.
Rather than investigating the whole population, we
take a sample, calculate a statistic related to the
parameter of interest, and make an inference.
The sampling distribution of the statistic is the tool
that tells us how close is the statistic to the
parameter.
9.5
Remember
Parameters describe populations
Parameters are almost always unknown
We take a random sample of a population to obtain the
necessary data
We calculate one or more statistics from the sample
data
9.6
Notation for Samples and Populations

Statistics
= sample mean
Parameters
m = population mean
s2 = sample variance
s2 = population variance
s = sample standard
deviation
s = population standard
deviation
9.7
Properties of the Standard Deviation, s

1.
s measures the variability is a sample of measurements. It is a

measure of how much the sample values deviate from the
sample mean.
2.
s is a nonnegative number. If all the numbers in a sample are

equal, the value of the standard deviation will be zero. This is
the smallest possible value for the standard deviation.
3.
When comparing 2 samples of data, the sample that is more

variable will have a larger standard deviation.
9.8
Interpreting Standard Deviation

The standard deviation can be used to
compare the variability of several distributions
make a statement about the general shape of a distribution.
The empirical rule: If a sample of observations has a

mound-shaped distribution, the interval
( x s, x s) contains approximately 68% of the measuremen ts
(x 2s, x 2s) contains approximately 95% of the measuremen ts
( x 3s, x 3s) contains approximately 99.7% of the measuremen ts
9.9
Simulation
We will first simulate a number of samples, n, of a
certain size. We will then find the mean of each of
the samples. Then we will talk about the
distributions of these means. We will also make a
histogram to graphically illustrate the distribution.
9.10
Describing Quantitative Data - Histograms

The histogram will look like a bar chart, but the intervals
will be right next to each other. There may not be spaces
between bars.
Note: Spaces would actually be intervals with no
observations, so technically, there is never space between
bars in a histogram.
We will use technology to produce histograms, so we will
focus on interpreting the picture, rather than producing it
by hand.
9.11
Histogram Example #1
Suppose we examine the scores on the first test for
students in MAT 213 from past semesters.
Clearly this is quantitative data, and as such, a histogram
of the scores is appropriate.
Using Minitab, the following histogram was produced.
Notice the bars are equal width, the heights of the bars
give the number of scores in each interval, etc.
9.12
Describing Quantitative Data - Histograms

Histogram of Test1
20
Frequency
15
10
20
40
60
Test1
80
100
9.13
Histogram Example #1 Questions

There are many questions you should be able to answer
from this type of graph.
What are the largest and smallest values possible in the
data set?
Are there any unusual data points (called outliers)?
Where do most values lie in the data set (if appropriate)?

What is the shape of the histogram (if appropriate)?
9.14
Thinking About the Sample Mean

Suppose I take a sample of book costs for 100 NKU
students. I then find the mean, and x = $340.
Suppose I then take a second sample of 100 NKU
students, different than before, and find their book costs.
If I calculated the sample mean, how do you think it
would compare to $340?
Would it be the same?
Would it be similar?
9.15
Thinking About the Sample Mean

Now suppose I performed the experiment a large number
of times, with each step involving:
sample 100 NKU students
record textbook costs
calculate the mean for the sample of 100 students
Each sample produces a different x
What happens if I make a histogram for all the different
values?
9.16
9.2 The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
When you take a sample, compute a statistic, repeat the

process a large number of times, and then make a
histogram of the statistics you observed, you are
examining the sampling distribution of the statistic.
Under special conditions, some of these distributions
(histograms) will begin to resemble a normal distribution.
9.17
Sampling Distribution of the Mean

A fair die is thrown infinitely many times,
with the random variable X = # of spots on any throw.
The probability distribution of X is:
x
P(x)
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
and the mean and variance are calculated as well:
9.18
Throwing a die twice sample mean

Sample
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6
Mean Sample
Mean
1
13
3,1
2
1.5
14
3,2
2.5
2
15
3,3
3
2.5
16
3,4
3.5
3
17
3,5
4
3.5
18
3,6
4.5
1.5
19
4,1
2.5
2
20
4,2
3
2.5
21
4,3
3.5
3
22
4,4
4
3.5
23
4,5
4.5
4
24
4,6
5
Sample
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Mean
5,1
5,2
5,3
5,4
5,5
5,6
6,1
6,2
6,3
6,4
6,5
6,6
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
9.19
Sampling Distribution of Two Dice

A sampling distribution is created by looking at
all samples of size n=2 (i.e. two dice) and their means
While there are 36 possible samples of size 2, there are only

11 values for , and some (e.g. =3.5) occur more
frequently than others (e.g.
=1).
9.20
Sampling Distribution of Two Dice

The sampling distribution of
1/36
2/36
3/36
4/36
5/36
6/36
5/36
4/36
3/36
2/36
1/36
5/36
6/36
4/36
P(
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
P( )
3/36
is shown below:
2/36
1/36
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
9.21
Compare
Compare the distribution of X
1.0
1.5
with the sampling distribution of
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
As well, note that:

9.22
Generalize
We can generalize the mean and variance of the sampling of
two dice:
to n-dice:
The standard deviation of the
sampling distribution is
called the standard error:
9.23
Central Limit Theorem

The sampling distribution of the mean of a random sample
drawn from any population is approximately normal for a
sufficiently large sample size.
The larger the sample size, the more closely the sampling
distribution of X will resemble a normal distribution.
9.24

n5
n 10
n 25
m x 3.5
m x 3.5
m x 3.5
s2x
s .5833 ( )
5 6
s2x
2
s x .2917 ( )
10
s2x
s .1167 ( )
25
2
x
2
x
9.25
Central Limit Theorem

If the population is normal, then X is normally distributed
for all values of n.
If the population is non-normal, then X is approximately
normal only for larger values of n.
In many practical situations, a sample size of 30 may be
sufficiently large to allow us to use the normal distribution
as an approximation for the sampling distribution of X.
9.26
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

1.
2.
3. If X is normal, X is normal. If X is nonnormal, X is
approximately normal for sufficiently large sample sizes.
Note: the definition of sufficiently large depends on the
extent of nonnormality of x (e.g. heavily skewed;
multimodal)
9.27
Demonstration: The variance of the sample mean is

smaller than the variance of the population.
Mean = 1.5 Mean = 2. Mean = 2.5
Population
Let us take samples

of two observations
1.5
2.5
22
3
1.5
2.5
22
1.5
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
1.5
2.5
2
Compare
the variability
of the population
1.5
2.5
1.5
22 of the2.5
to the variability
sample mean.
1.5
2.5
1.5
2.5
2
1.5
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
1
9.28

Also,
Expected value of the population mean =
(1 + 2 + 3)/3 = 2
Expected value of the sample mean =

(1.5 + 2 + 2.5)/3 = 2
9.29
Example 9.1(a)
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the amount
of soda in each 32-ounce bottle is actually a normally
distributed random variable, with a mean of 32.2 ounces and
a standard deviation of .3 ounce.
If a customer buys one bottle, what is the probability that the
bottle will contain more than 32 ounces?
9.30

Example 9.1
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the
amount of soda in each 32-ounce bottle is actually a
normally distributed random variable, with a mean of
32.2 ounces and a standard deviation of 0.3 ounce.
Find the probability that a bottle bought by a customer
will contain more than 32 ounces.
Solution
The random variable X is the
amount of soda in a bottle.
P( x 32) P(
x m 32 32.2
)
sx
.3
0.7486
P( z .67) 0.7486
x = 32 m = 32.2
9.31
Example 9.1(a)
We want to find P(X > 32), where X is normally distributed
and =32.2 and =.3
there is about a 75% chance that a single bottle of soda

contains more than 32oz.
9.32
Example 9.1(b)
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the amount
of soda in each 32-ounce bottle is actually a normally
distributed random variable, with a mean of 32.2 ounces and
a standard deviation of .3 ounce.
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is the
probability that the mean amount of the four bottles will be
greater than 32 ounces?
9.33

Find the probability that a carton of four bottles will have a
mean of more than 32 ounces of soda per bottle.
Solution
Define the random variable as the mean amount of soda
per bottle.
P( x 32) P(
x m 32 32.2
)
sx
.3 4
P( z 1.33) 0.9082
0.9082
0.7486
x = 32
x 32 m = 32.2
m 32.2
9.34
Example 9.1(b)
We want to find P(X > 32), where X is normally distributed
with =32.2 and =.3
Things we know:
1) X is normally distributed, therefore so will X.
2)
= 32.2 oz.
3)
9.35
Example 9.1(b)
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is the
probability that the mean amount of the four bottles will be
greater than 32 ounces?
There is about a 91% chance the mean of the four bottles

will exceed 32oz.
9.36
Graphically Speaking
mean=32.2
what is the probability that one bottle will

contain more than 32 ounces?
what is the probability that the mean of

four bottles will exceed 32 oz?
9.37

Fully describe the sampling distribution of
Original population of soda pop: = 32.2 oz, = 0.3

oz
Random sample, n = 4
Sampling distribution of X:
m X m x 32.2
sx
0.3
sX
0.15
n
4
Sample is normally distributed, since population is

normally distributed.
9.38
Chapter-Opening Example
The dean of the School of Business claims that the average
salary of the schools graduates one year after graduation is
$800 per week with a standard deviation of $100. A secondyear student would like to check whether the claim about the
mean is correct. He does a survey of 25 people who
graduated one year ago and determines their weekly salary.
He discovers the sample mean to be $750. To interpret his
finding he needs to calculate the probability that a sample of
25 graduates would have a mean of $750 or less when the
population mean is $800 and the standard deviation is $100.
9.39
We want to compute
P(X 750)
Although X is likely skewed it is likely that
is normally distributed. The mean of X is
m x m 800
The standard deviation is
s x s / n 100 / 25 20
9.40
X m x 750 800
P( X 750) P
s
20
x
P(Z 2.5) .5 P(0 Z 2.5) .5 .4938 .0062

The probability of observing a sample mean as low as $750 when the
population mean is $800 is extremely small(0.62%). Because the event
is quite unlikely, we would conclude that the deans claim is not
justified.
9.41
Standardizing the Sample Mean

The sampling distribution can be used to make inferences
about population parameters. In order to do so, the sample
mean can be standardized to the standard normal distribution
using the following formulation:
9.42
Another Way to State the Probability

In Chapter 8 we saw that
P(-1.96 < Z < 1.96) = .95
From the sampling distribution of the mean we have
Z
X m
s/ n
Substituting this definition of Z in the probability statement we

produce
X m
P(1.96
1.96) .95
s/ n
9.43
Another Way to State the Probability

With a little algebra we rewrite the probability statement as
s
s
.95
P m 1.96
X m 1.96
n
n
Similarly
s
s
.90
P m 1.645
X m 1.645
n
n
In general
s
s
1
P m z / 2
X m z / 2
n
n
All are probability statements about

statistical inference
X,
which well use in
9.44
Return to the Chapter-Opening Example

Substituting m = 800,
= 100, n = 25, and
= .05, we get
s
s
1 .05
P m z .025
X m z .025
n
n
100
100
.95
P 800 1.96
X 800 1.96
25
25
P 760.8 X 839.2 .95
This is another way of checking the deans claim. The probability that
X falls between 760.8 and 839.2 is 95%. It is unlikely that we
would observe a sample mean as low as $750 when the population
mean is $800.
9.45
Calculating a Probability for
1. Make sure the sample contains at least 30 measurements (to

allow for normality)
2. Find the values of the mean and standard deviation of the
sample distribution of the sample mean using
X mX
m m and
X
sX
3. Sketch a normal curve, and shade the area, or probability, of

interest
9.46
Continued
Calculate the z-scores corresponding to the appropriate values of x
bar using the formula
z
X mX
sX
Use Table 1 to find the area under the normal curve corresponding
to each calculated z score.
Using the curve sketched in Step 3, find the probability of interest
by adding or subtracting the appropriate areas.
9.47
Fully describe the sampling distribution

To fully describe the sampling distribution:
1. Describe the population parameters given
2. Describe the sample with data given
3. Give the properties of the sampling distribution of
x bar, that is, the expected mean of the sample, the
standard error of the sample, and whether the
sample is normal
9.48
Sampling Distribution of a Proportion

The estimator of a population proportion of successes is the
sample proportion. That is, we count the number of
successes in a sample and compute:
(read this as p-hat).
X is the number of successes, n is the sample size.
9.49
Normal Approximation to Binomial

Binomial distribution with n=20 and p=.5 with a normal
approximation superimposed ( =10 and =2.24)
9.50

Binomial distribution with n=20 and p=.5 with a normal
approximation superimposed ( =10 and =2.24)
where did these values come from?!
From 7.6 we saw that:
Hence:
and
9.51

Normal approximation to the binomial works best when the
number of experiments, n, (sample size) is large, and the
probability of success, p, is close to 0.5
For the approximation to provide good results two
conditions should be met:
1) np 5
2) n(1p) 5
9.52

To calculate P(X=10) using the
normal distribution, we can find
the area under the normal curve
between 9.5 & 10.5
P(X = 10) P(9.5 < Y < 10.5)

where Y is a normal random variable approximating
the binomial random variable X
9.53

In fact:
P(X = 10) = .176
while
P(9.5 < Y < 10.5) = .1742
the approximation is quite good.
P(X = 10) P(9.5 < Y < 10.5)

where Y is a normal random variable approximating
the binomial random variable X
9.54
Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion

Using the laws of expected value and variance, we can
determine the mean, variance, and standard deviation of .
(The standard deviation of is called the standard error of
the proportion.)
Sample proportions can be standardized to a standard normal

distribution using this formulation:
9.55
Calculating a Probability for
Consider a population of qualitative data where

p is the proportion
having a particular attribute
of interest. Let p be the corresponding

proportion in a random sample of n
observations. To find the probability associated
with
, follow pthese steps:
9.56
Step 1
Define the sample proportion of interest in words. This

is important because every qualitative set of data has
more than one category, and you must be sure to
identify the category, or attribute, of interest. Also
specify the values of the population proportion p and
the sample size n.
9.57
Step 2
Find the values of the mean and standard error of the

sampling distribution of p hat using
m p
p (1 p )
n
9.58
Step 3
Verify that the sampling distribution of p is

approximately normal by checking that the
following holds
np>5 and n(1-p) > 5
9.59
Step 4
Sketch a normal curve, and shade the area

corresponding to the probability of interest.
9.60
Step 5
Calculate the z-scores corresponding to the appropriate

values of p. (Remember p is the same as the mean)
p p
p
9.61
Step 6
Use table to find the area under the normal curve
corresponding to each calculated z-score.
9.62
Step 7
With the help of the curve sketched in Step 4, find the
probability of interest by adding or subtracting
appropriate areas.
9.63
Example 9.3
A state representative received 52% of the votes
in the last election.
One year later the representative wanted to study
his popularity.
If his popularity has not changed, what is the
probability that more than half of a sample of
300 voters would vote for him?
9.64
Sampling Distribution
Example 9.3
Solution - Describe Sampling Distribution of p

Population p = .52
Sample: Random, n = 300
Sampling
distribution:
p = .50
p (1 p )
.0288
n
normal because np = 300(.52) = 156 and

n(1-p) = 300(1-.52) = 144 (both greater than 5)
9.65
Example 9.3
Solution for the probability:
p
.
50
.
52
.7549
P( p .50) P
p(1 p) n
(.
52
)(
1
.
52
)
300
The probability that more than half of the 300 sampled

voters will vote for him is 75.49%.
9.66
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion

1.
m p
2. s
p
p (1 p )
n
3. The sampling distribution is normal if np>5 and n(1-p)
>5
9.67
Part 3
Finding probabilities when is unknown
9.68
Inference With Standard Deviation Unknown

Previously, we looked at estimating and testing the
population mean when the population standard
deviation ( ) was known or given:
But how often do we know the actual population variance?

Instead, we use the Student t-statistic, given by:
9.69
Inference With Standard Deviation Unknown

When
is unknown, we use its point estimator s
and the z-statistic is replaced by the the t-statistic, where the

number of degrees of freedom , is n1.
9.70
The t - Statistic
t
The t distribution is mound-shaped,
and symmetrical around zero.
d.f. = v2
v1 < v2
d.f. = v1
x m
s n
The degrees of freedom,
(a function of the sample size)
determine how spread the
distribution is (compared to the
normal distribution)
9.71
Inference About
with
Unknown
What value changes (possibly) with each new sample

for the z-statistic? x
What values change (possibly) with each new sample
for the t-statistic? x and s
Clearly, this adds more variability to the distribution
which describes possible t-scores.
This distribution is called a t-distribution and assumes
the sample comes from a normal distribution.
9.72
Degrees of freedom
I want to find 3 numbers that add up to 10.
If I choose 2 and 5 for the first two, what is the
third?
If I choose 4 and -6 for the first two, what is the
third?
Once I have designated two of the numbers, the third
is fixed, that is, there is no choice if the original
condition is to be met (sum = 10)
In this case we have 2 degrees of freedom.
9.73
Degrees of Freedom
If I want 4 numbers that add up to 20, how many
degrees of freedom do I have?
9.74
The t-distribution
Properties of the t-distribution:
1. It is symmetric and mound-shaped but it is not a
normal distribution.
2. The mean value (its center) is zero.
3. The t-distribution has n 1 degrees of freedom,
written df = n 1.
4.
The standard deviation of the distribution is
df
df 2
9.75
Example 12.1
Will new workers achieve 90% of the level of experienced
workers within one week of being hired and trained?
Experienced workers can process 500 packages/hour, thus if
our conjecture is correct, we expect new workers to be
able to process .90(500) = 450 packages per hour.
Given the data, is this the case?
9.76
Example 12.1
COMPUTE
Our test statistic is:
With n=50 data points, we have n1=49 degrees of freedom.
9.77
Example 12.1
From the data, we calculate
COMPUTE
= 460.38, s =38.83 and thus:
To change a t value to the probability (or area under the

curve) we use the table you received as a handout.
9.78
The t value from Table 4

To find the appropriate value of t to correctly estimate the
population mean, we must use Table 4.
Calculate the degrees of freedom, df = n 1

Look for the appropriate row labeled with that value
of df in Table 4
Look under the column with the appropriate level of
confidence
9.79
Example 12.1
Since t = 1.89, and we have 49 degrees of freedom, we go to
row 49, and then over to 1.9 for the calculated value of t.
This gives us 0.0317. This is the area under the curve.
NOTICE the shaded region on the top of the table. The
numbers in the table are the right tail of the distribution.
So the probability of getting the value gotten from the
experiment (in this case 460.38)or a higher value, if the
true mean is 450 is 0.0317 or 3.17%.
9.80
Example 12.1
COMPUTE
Alternatively, we can use t-test:Mean from

Tools > Data Analysis Plus in Excel
:
:
9.81
Example 12.1
COMPUTE
Technology gives a p-value of 0.0323. This is actually more

accurate, because we had to use t = 1.9 on our table, even
though we calculated t = 1.89 and even there we rounded.
Technology doesnt round, and so gives a more accurate
answer. However, the practical difference between 3.17%
and 3.23% isnt going to change many of our decisions.
9.82
Simulations
We can simulate the sampling distribution of z.
The z statistic gives us the number of standard deviations

away from the mean in a normal distribution.
So the average of all the z statistics in a simulation should be
0, because there should be as many pieces of data on one
side of the mean as on the other.
The standard deviation of all the z statistics in a simulation
should be 1, because the z is the standard deviation.
9.83
Sampling Distribution of z
In summary,
The shape of the sampling distribution of z is normal if the
population is normal, or n > 30.
mz 0
s z 1
9.84
The sampling distribution of t

Properties of the t-distribution:
It is symmetric and mound-shaped but it is not a
normal distribution.
The mean value (its center) is zero.
mt 0
The standard deviation of the distribution is
df
df 2
The t-distribution has n 1 degrees of freedom,
written df = n 1.
9.85
Sampling Distribution using Simulation

We have looked at 4 sample distributions.
These are x bar, p hat, z and t
To do simulations of these, use StatCrunch
For problems involving these
1. Give the theoretical distributions
1.Shape
2.Mean
3.Standard deviation
2. Do the Simulation using technology, and make a

histogram of the distribution
3. See how well the actual compares to the theoretical
9.86
Summary
Statistic
Shape
Mean
Normal if
Population is normal
OR n > 30
mx m
Normal if np > 5 AND

n(1-p) > 5
Normal if
Population is normal
OR n > 30
Symmetric and moundshaped but not normal
m p p
mz 0
mt 0
Standard Deviation
sx
s
n
s p p(1 p) / n
s z 1
st
df
df 2
9.87

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Key Statistical Concepts

Key Statistical Concepts

Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

Descriptive and Inferential Statistics

Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

In real life calculating parameters of populations is

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Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

Notation for Samples and Populations

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Properties of the Standard Deviation, s

s measures the variability is a sample of measurements. It is a

s is a nonnegative number. If all the numbers in a sample are

When comparing 2 samples of data, the sample that is more

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Interpreting Standard Deviation

The empirical rule: If a sample of observations has a

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Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

Describing Quantitative Data - Histograms

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Describing Quantitative Data - Histograms

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Histogram Example #1 Questions

Where do most values lie in the data set (if appropriate)?

Thinking About the Sample Mean

Thinking About the Sample Mean

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9.2 The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

When you take a sample, compute a statistic, repeat the

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Sampling Distribution of the Mean

and the mean and variance are calculated as well:

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Throwing a die twice sample mean

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Sampling Distribution of Two Dice

While there are 36 possible samples of size 2, there are only

Sampling Distribution of Two Dice

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with the sampling distribution of

As well, note that:

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Central Limit Theorem

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Sampling Distribution of the Mean

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Central Limit Theorem

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Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

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Sampling Distribution of the Mean

Demonstration: The variance of the sample mean is

Let us take samples

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Sampling Distribution of the Mean

Expected value of the sample mean =

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Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

there is about a 75% chance that a single bottle of soda

Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.