Earths Atmosphere and Climate Change

Big Question
Global Warming Is Happening: What Part Do We Play?

Global Warming and the Polar Bears of

Hudson Bay

Is the Global Temperature Rising?

Yes, and it is

rising globally
Has the
temperature
risen steadily?

The Last 1,000,000 Years

The Last 1,000,000 Years

What Causes Climate Change and What Is

Making It Get Warmer?

Studies of ice cores show Earths surface temperature

has varied over time

Variation in the Suns Energy May Be A

Reason for Climate Changes
The suns energy seems to have varied over the ages
Midievil Warm period has high solar activity
The Little Ice Age lasted from about 1450 to 1850 and

had relatively low solar activity

The Seasons

Fig. 7-2b, p. 134

The Last 1,000,000 Years

Changes to Solar Strength

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png

Volcanoes Can Alter Climate

Volcanic eruptions cool the climate in two ways:

- Atmospheric dust reflects sunlight back into space

- Smaller dust particles provide water condensing
surfaces, forming clouds

Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines

Dust from Our Own Activities Also Cools the

Climate
Aerosol pollution particles reduce amount of sunlight

reaching Earth
Emissions have reduced global warming

Variations in Ocean Currents May Affect the

Climate
Ocean currents and prevailing winds warm or cool our

planet
The Gulf Stream: a major ocean circulation affecting
climate

Gulf Stream

Kuroshio Current
www.tec.army.mil

Oceans can really alter climate?

Isthmus of Panama

Emplaced 3.53 M years ago

Started modern circulation

Gulf stream carries salty

Atlantic north
Cools, sinks

JAK 2010

Oceanic conveyor belt

High latitudes cool

17

 Earths energy balance between the amount of

energy coming in from the sun and the amount of

energy radiated out by the Earth

Incoming Energy Albedo effect

Energy absorbed by Ocean ~ 90% !!!

JAK 2010

19

 The answer lies in the Earths energy balance

between the amount of energy coming in from the

sun and the amount of energy radiated out by the
Earth

Fig. 7-3a, p. 135

The Greenhouse Effect, and How It Warms

Earths Surface
Earths surface temperature determined by four main

factors:

1. Amount of sunlight Earth receives

2. Amount of sunlight Earth reflects
3. Retention of heat by atmosphere
4. Evaporation and condensation of water vapor

Energy Budget

Atmospheric Levels of CO2 and CH4,

Global Temperatures, and Sea
Levels

 Gases produce a greenhouse effect on other planets too

Review Questions
Is the Greenhouse Effect a new theory?
Is the Greenhouse Effect debated?

Greenhouse Gases Are Increasing

We are part of the reason
Carbon dioxide has been increasing in the atmosphere

for some time

 First suggested early in the 19th century

1957: an observatory established on Mauna Loa Volcano,

Hawaii
Scientists now can estimate the carbon dioxide concentration
in ancient atmosphere:

- Measure concentration in air bubbles

trapped in polar ice sheets
People add to atmospheric carbon dioxide by :
- Burning fossil fuels and wood
- Major changes in land use, i.e. cutting
down forests and removing prairies

Methane

Concentration more than doubled in the past 200 years

People can add to atmospheric methane by :

- Increasing habitats where methane-producing

bacteria live
- Increasing number of domesticated ruminants
(cows, etc.)
- Processing and burning fossil fuels
- Destroying wetlands (releases stored methane)
- Increasing the size of landfills and stored
organic matter

Permafrost
Frozen Soil

Fluorocarbons (CFCs and HFCS)

CFCs Once thought harmless
Increasing in atmosphere about 5% per year
Use as propellants banned in the U.S. in 1978
Montreal Protocol of 1987 was an international

agreement to reduce and eventually eliminate

production of CFCs
HFCs still used

Nitrous Oxide
increasing in the atmosphere and likely contributes as

much as 5% of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect

Ozone
Is a contributing greenhouse gas, but has been difficult

to determine percentage of greenhouse effect due to

ozone

Warming Potential of the

Main Greenhouse Gases over 100yrs

Would It Really Be So Serious

If Earth Warmed Up a Bit?
Changes in the atmosphere affect living things and

habitats
Steps to forecasting effects:

1. Forecast changes in climate and physical

conditions of the oceans and land surfaces
2. Forecast species and ecosystems response

 Computer

models are the

major scientific
tool in step one
Model results:
global warming
will increase
Earths surface
temperature by
1.5 to 4.5C
from 1990 to
2100

Results of IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
9099% likely that lower atmosphere is warming
19062005: Ave. temp increased about 0.74C
19702005: Annual greenhouse emissions up 70%
Past 50 years: Arctic temp rising almost twice as fast as
the rest of the earth
Melting of glaciers and floating sea ice
Prolonged droughts: increasing
Last 100 years: sea levels rose 1020 cm

Comparison of Measured
Temperature from 18602007 and
Projected Changes

 Forecasts suggest that temperatures are rising

Temperature Data Two Big

Impacts
Soils will dry out
Greatest change where the ice is

WHAT ARE THE MAJOR ENVIRONMENTAL

PROBLEMS WITH THESE IMPACTS FROM THE

PERSPECTIVE OF OUR COURSE?

The Effects of a Rising Sea Level

Risen naturally since last ice age
Increases damage from major storms

-3

-2

-1

Global Warming Affects on World Climate

Agriculture
May seriously affect worlds food supply
The best agricultural areas may no longer be in North

America
Winter snowpacks will store less water for spring
planting

Lowering of Water Tables and Reservoirs

Could cause serious water supply shortages

Water use in some regions is already unsustainable

Biological and Ecological Changes

Biosphere changes due to damaged ecosystems
Spring arrives up to two weeks earlier
Early spring stresses some species
Some species are changing their geographic ranges

- i.e. Sachem skipper butterflies expanding range

Species Migration
Spreads
Diseases
Example: Changing

range of disease
carrying mosquitoes

 West Nile virus is an example of global

warming spreading disease:

- Mild winters preserve more mosquitoes

in still water locations
- Dry springs increase surface-water site
mosquito and bird concentrations
- Mosquitoes with virus bite uninfected
birds
- Infected birds are bitten by uninfected
mosquitoes, passing the virus to them
- Hot, wet summers cause mosquito population
to mature and grow rapidly

Endangered Species

What will happen to species that can not migrate nor

adapt?
Case Study: Kirtlands warbler

- an endangered-species success story

 Kirtlands warblers require a very specific habitat

nest only in young jack-pine woodlands
To save these birds, 38,000 acres were set aside in

Michigan

 computer simulation shows that jack pine will not be

able to grow there in global warming climates

Projected Effects of Global Warming and the

Resulting Changes in Global Climate

Slowing the Temperature Rise

Reduce production and release of greenhouse gases
Find ways to sequester (store) greenhouse gases
Actively cool the climate

Mitigating Global Warming

Toronto 1988: scientists recommended a 20%

reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2005

Earth Summit 1992: Blueprint for reducing global
emissions
Kyoto 1997: Legally binding emission limits
We have run out of excuses
Why is the Kyoto Accord so important?

CO2 Emissions after the Kyoto

Protocol
Making energy more
expensive is a political
liability everywhere,
says Roger Pielke.
When emission
reductions run up against
economic growth,
economic growth will
inevitably win out. There
is no magical solution, so
you better set yourself
tangible goals that aren't
doomed to clash with the
iron laws of politics.

35,000

30,000

1996 Dollars per person

25,000

20,000
Per capita gross domestic
product (GDP)

15,000
10,000

5,000
Per capita genuine progress indicator (GPI)
0
1950

1960

1970

1980
Year

1990

2000
Fig. 23-7, p. 622

Ways to Lower your Emissions

Without lowering emissions

The Fe Hypothesis
Give me half a tanker of Iron and Ill give you an Ice Age
- John Martin
To test
1. 7,800 moles of Fe (as FeSO4) + 15,600 l seawater + conc.
HCl to bring it to pH 2 (iron is very insoluble in seawater)
2. A 64 km patch over a 24-hour period was made
3. Fe was consumed by the phytoplankton throughout the
experiment
4. Patch was followed for 9 days. On the 6th day a low salinity
front moved in from the east, subducting the patch to 20 to 40 m

Fe concentration in the patch decreased during experiment

Iron fertilization experiment results

Iron fertilization experiments to date

Ironex I
Ironex II
Soiree
Eisenex I
Seeds
Series
Sofex
Eisenex II

Can we mitigate global warming

with Fe Fertilization

Problems with the experiments

We could only monitor for less than 27 days.
What are the long-term impacts
Experiments were relatively small scale
How much Fe will impact atmospheric Carbon
Did the carbon get sequestered or is it eaten and

recycled at the surface?

Academics are performing the experiments but
companies want to capitalize

Experiment Successes
Ironex within two weeks of 1000kg of Fe being

deposited the equivalent of one hundred redwoods

had been made
Wegener Institute's 2004 Eifex
experiment 300,000 parts carbon fixed
to 1 part Fe

Economic and Social Concerns

How long a period must carbon be removed for

sequestration to have occurred?

Trees decades
Below thermocline centuries
Ocean floor billions of years

Is either time frame long enough to count as carbon

mitigation under the Kyoto protocol?

Economic and Social Concerns

What about oxygen depletion?
Can we make the ocean anoxic???
What will happen to ecosystems and the food chain?
How will this be regulated?
Tragedy of the commons

Exam
80 MCQ questions
2 hours
Will cover the whole course pretty evenly distributed
A few extra questions on waste and climate as these

were not on a mid-term

IMPORTANT NOTE
All exam questions were required to have 5 answer

choices even true false. . .

So you will see things like
A) true
B) false
C) Maybe
D) Maybe
E) Must have options a-e

What is on the exam?

Three types of questions:
Facts either you know them or you can usually
eliminate a couple and make an educated guess

There are very few know the number questions they come
from the land unit, the ecosystems lecture, waste, population
lecture

Concepts do you understand key materials presented

in lecture
Figures two kinds

Reading and understanding the figures

Interpreting the figures

What is on the exam?

Three types of questions:
Facts either you know them or you can usually
eliminate a couple and make an educated guess

There are very few know the number questions they come
from the land unit, the ecosystems lecture, waste, population
lecture, chemicals

Concepts do you understand key materials presented

in lecture
Figures two kinds

Reading and understanding the figures

Interpreting the figures

How to study?

What else does this plot relate

to?
Water pollution Dead Zones, Hong Kong Mitigation
Ecosystems population niches
Land Use Riparian Buffer Zones, Farming practices