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AGUSTN DE AREQUIPA
FORMULACIN DE
PROYECTOS
ANLISIS DEL MERCADO
DE CRDITO MES EN LA
REGIN DE PUNO
DR. ALFONSO GONZALES
CARDEA
Cul es el
bien o
servicio?
Quines
demanda el
producto?
Crdito
MES
Las MYPES
2 Grupo de
Inters
3 Tipo de
Muestreo
No probabilstico
4 Tamao de la
muestra
2 N h . p.q
nh 2
eh ( N h 1) 2 p.q
Afijacin
muestral
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2.33
0.5
0.5
0.02
3,352
Provincia
San Romn
Puno
Chucuito
Azngaro
Yunguyo
El Collao
Melgar
Huancan
Lampa
Carabaya
Sandia
Moho
San. Antonio de
Putina
Total
95%
276,206
2.17
2.05
1.96
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.03
0.04
0.05
1,302
655
384
%
Muestra
40.04%
154
32.37%
124
4.79%
18
4.46%
17
3.99%
15
3.48%
13
2.77%
11
2.04%
8
1.59%
6
1.49%
6
1.25%
5
1.12%
4
0.61%
100.00%
2
384
26.90%
73.10%
100.00
%
Si Acceden a
Cunto se presto?
Crdito
Resultad
o
0.00 - 500.00
1.26%
501.00 - 3,000.00
46.22%
3,001.00 4,500.00
1.68%
4,501.00 6,000.00
21.43%
6,001.00 10,000.00
13.45%
10,001.00 Monto
De qu entidad se
prest?Resultad
Institucin
Financiera
Financiera Edyficar
CMAC Arequipa
CMAC Tacna
CMAC Cusco
Edpyme Raz
Crediscotia
Financiera
Mibanco
Banco de la Nacin
Scotiabank
Los Andes
Banco de Crdito
Nueva Visin
Banco Azteca
Edpyme Credinka
Interbank
Banco Continental
Financiero
Otros
Total
o
25.83%
21.85%
8.94%
7.62%
5.63%
4.97%
3.31%
2.65%
2.65%
2.32%
1.99%
1.32%
0.99%
0.66%
0.66%
0.66%
0.33%
7.62%
100.00%
Si
No
Total
Resultado
70.93%
29.07%
100.00%
72.62%
27.38%
100.00%
Solicitara otro
crdito?
Si/No
Resultado
Si
No
Total
88.00%
12.00%
100.00%
A cunto asciende el
monto?Resultad
Monto
0.00 - 500.00
501.00 - 3,000.00
3,001.00 4,500.00
4,501.00 6,000.00
6,001.00
7,500.00
o
0.00%
11.95%
17.92%
37.92%
8.05%
Resultado
45.75%
30.72%
23.53%
100.00%
A cunto asciende el
monto?Resultad
Monto
0.00 - 500.00
501.00 - 3,000.00
3,001.00 4,500.00
4,501.00 6,000.00
6,001.00
7,500.00
7,501.00-
o
1.56%
31.25%
28.65%
15.89%
15.36%
57.14%
27.89%
14.97%
100.00%
Total
TotalUnidades
Unidades
Econmicas
Econmicas
que
queNO
NO
acceden
accedenaa
crdito
crdito
237,865
237,865
73.10%
73.10%
Si desea
tener
crdito
69.28%
87,513
87,513
26.90%
66.04%
Ms
adelante
33.96%
No desea
tener
crdito
30.72%
SI
Total
Totalunidades
unidades
econmicas
econmicas
que SI
que SI
acceden
accedenaa
crdito
crdito
En forma
inmediata
se
cambiara a
otra entidad
70.93%
NO se
cambiara
29.07%
Preferenci
a por la
CMAC
Puno
57.14%
Depende
27.89%
NO 14.97%
Mercado
Objetivo
Preferencia por
la CMAC Puno
72.62%
Analizara otras
entidades
23.96%
Mercado
Potencial
Mypes
208,128
223,386
239,763
257,340
276,206
7.33%
Proyeccin del N
MYPES
Aos
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mypes
296,455
318,188
341,515
366,552
393,425
422,267
453,224
486,450
522,113
560,389
601,472
645,567
692,894
500
3,000
4,500
6,000
Y4,500
(promedio) =
6,000
7,500
Escenarios
9,000
7,500
Optimista
10,500
9,000
Promedio
Pesimista
Clase
Fi
Yi
250
120
110
Fi x Yi
( Yi - Y ) Fi
1,500
91,919,312
1,750
210,000
699,323,730
3,750
412,500
18,859,253
61 4,164.06
5,250
320,250
71,934,875
59
6,750
398,250
394,537,292
8,250
90,750
183,643,738
11
6,440.91
17 4,164.06
9,750
1,887.22
384
35,750
165,750
Desviacin
530,445,862
Estndar
2,276.84
1,990,664,06
1,599,000 3
Aos
N de
Mypes
366,552
393,425
422,267
453,224
486,450
522,113
560,389
601,472
645,567
692,894
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Desean Crdito?
Si
No
Demanda
de Crdito
(en millones de
S/.)
Si
No
26.90%
73.10%
69.28%
30.72%
4,164.06
5=(4*69.28%)
6=(4*30.72%)
7=(5*4,164.06)
98,602
105,831
113,590
121,917
130,855
140,448
150,745
161,796
173,658
186,388
267,950
287,594
308,677
331,307
355,595
381,665
409,644
439,676
471,909
506,506
185,636
199,245
213,851
229,529
246,356
264,418
283,801
304,608
326,939
350,907
82,314
88,349
94,826
101,778
109,239
117,247
125,843
135,068
144,970
155,599
773
830
890
956
1,026
1,101
1,182
1,268
1,361
1,461
500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
Clase
Fi
Yi
0
46
69
146
31
39
54
250
1,750
3,750
5,250
6,750
8,250
9,750
Fi x Yi
( Yi - Y ) Fi
80,500 268,074,097
258,750
11,829,895
766,500 172,171,997
209,250 207,299,255
321,750 651,100,525
526,500 1,684,945,679
5,618.83
2,995,421,44
385
35,750 2,163,250
8
Y (promedio) =
Escenarios
Optimista
Promedio
Pesimista
8,408.15
5,618.83
2,829.51
Desviacin
Estndar
2,789.32
N de
Mypes
Aos
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Si
No
26.90%
73.10%
366,552
393,425
422,267
453,224
486,450
522,113
560,389
601,472
645,567
98,602
105,831
113,590
121,917
130,855
140,448
150,745
161,796
173,658
267,950
287,594
308,677
331,307
355,595
381,665
409,644
439,676
471,909
Desean Crdito?
Si
No
88.00%
12.00%
Demanda
de
Crdito
(en millones
de S/.)
5,618.83
5=(3*69.28%
8=(5*5,618.83
6=(3*30.72%)
)
)
86,770
93,131
99,959
107,287
115,152
123,594
132,656
142,380
152,819
181,180
194,463
208,718
224,020
240,443
258,071
276,988
297,296
319,090
488
523
562
603
647
694
745
800
859
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ao
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Oferta
X
XY
X^2
Y^2
(Y)
0.06
122
4,004,001
0.00
1 2001
0.07
138
4,008,004
0.00
2 2002
0.09
175
4,012,009
0.01
3 2003
0.09
185
4,016,016
0.01
4 2004
0.14
284
4,020,025
0.02
5 2005
0.20
393
4,024,036
0.04
6 2006
0.29
572
4,028,049
0.08
7 2007
0.45
912
4,032,064
0.21
8 2008
0.47
935
4,036,081
0.22
9 2009
Oferta
Oferta (S/.)
Proyectada
0.48
478,318
0.53
532,828
0.59
587,338
0.64
641,848
0.70
696,358
0.75
750,868
0.81
805,378
0.86
859,888
0.91
914,398
0.97
968,908
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Demanda total
Oferta en S/.
en S/.
2
4
1,260,545,887
478,318.24
1,352,955,998
532,828.18
1,452,141,674
587,338.12
1,558,600,641
641,848.07
1,672,861,428
696,358.01
1,795,506,898
750,867.95
1,927,136,769
805,377.89
2,068,415,932
859,887.83
2,220,058,590
914,397.77
2,382,804,987
968,907.71
Balance OfertaDemanda
6=(4-2)
-1,260,067,569
-1,352,423,170
-1,451,554,336
-1,557,958,793
-1,672,165,070
-1,794,756,030
-1,926,331,391
-2,067,556,044
-2,219,144,192
-2,381,836,079
DETERMINACIN
DEL TAMAO DE LA
CMAC PUNO
Bancos
Crditos
N Of.
Promedio
CMAC
Crditos
N Of.
Promedio
CRAC
Crditos
N Of.
Promedio
2007
333,220
12
27,768
2008
493,944
17
29,056
2009
492,673
17
28,981
212,381
10
21,238
298,587
17
17,564
361,295
20
18,065
21,537
1
21,537
31,426
1
31,426
27,487
3
9,162
EDPYME
Crditos
N Of.
Promedio
Financieras
Crditos
N Of.
Promedio
2007
83,208
8
10,401
2008
48,714
6
8,119
2009
81,111
9
9,012
12,177
8
1,522
12,756
12
1,063
Bancos
Cmac
Crac
Edpymes
Financieras
Total
2001
2002
82,377 82,065
32,043 48,896
6,227
5,432
10,654 12,572
7,109
7,692
138,41
0 156,658
2001
2002
Bancos
59.52% 52.39%
Cmac
23.15% 31.21%
Crac
4.50%
3.47%
Edpymes
7.70%
8.03%
Financieras 5.14%
4.91%
100.00 100.00
Total
%
%
2003
2004
97,721 105,618
70,197 82,247
5,940
16,572 21,781
7,385
0
197,81 209,64
4
5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
154,125 214,410 333,220 493,944 492,673
123,703 159,782 212,381 298,587 361,295
12,571 16,857 21,537 31,426 27,487
30,571 52,926 83,208 48,714 81,111
0
0
0 97,413 153,072
320,96
970,08 1,115,6
9 443,975650,346
5
38
2003
49.40%
35.49%
3.00%
8.38%
3.73%
100.00
%
2005
48.02%
38.54%
3.92%
9.52%
0.00%
100.00
%
2004
50.38%
39.23%
0.00%
10.39%
0.00%
100.00
%
2006
48.29%
35.99%
3.80%
11.92%
0.00%
100.00
%
2007
51.24%
32.66%
3.31%
12.79%
0.00%
100.00
%
2008
50.92%
30.78%
3.24%
5.02%
10.04%
100.00
%
2009
44.16%
32.38%
2.46%
7.27%
13.72%
100.00
%
La CMAC
Puno
CMAC
2007
Crditos 212,381
N Of.
10
Promedio 21,238
N de Oficinas
CMAC Puno
Demanda insatisfecha al ao 1
10% de la
demanda
insatisfecha
Tamao
2008
298,587
17
17,564
2009
361,295
20
18,065
S/. 1,260,067,569
S/. 18,956,000
LOCALIZACIN DE LA
CMAC PUNO
CREAR Arequipa 1
CMAC Arequipa 1
CMAC Arequipa 1
CREAR Arequipa 1
CMAC Arequipa 4
Edyficar
3
CMAC Cusco
2
Banco de Crdito 2
Mibanco
2
CMAC Piura
1
Efectiva
1
Financiero
1
Los Andes
1
Raz
3
Azteca del Per 2
CMAC Tacna
2
Nueva Visin
2
Continental
1
Crediscotia
1
Solidaridad
1
Interbank
1
Scotiabank
1
Edyficar 2
CMAC Arequipa 1
Edyficar
1
CMAC Tacna
1
CMAC Arequipa 2 CMAC Cusco
2
Edyficar
2 Azteca del Per 1
Continental
1 CMAC Tacna
1
Crediscotia
1 Banco de Crdito 1
Efectiva
1 Raz
1
Fra TFC
1 Financiero
1
Interbank
1 Los Andes
1
Mibanco
1 Scotiabank
1
CMAC Tacna 2
Edyficar 2
CMAC Tacna 1
CRAC Nuestra Gente 1