(Z)

“c”
S&P 500 (120 min.) ~ A “c” Wave Begins 3

Reprinted from 1/2/10 alt: “c” wave failure

1 4

“a” b
5 d

3
2
1103

1094
4 e
1086 “b”
a c

1
This count represents my best interpretation of the price action up from 1033. The “a” wave was an
‘impulse’ that only witnessed a shallow correction. Under this model, the “c” wave MUST be an
‘impulsive’ five wave advance. Admittedly, the “b” wave was a MESS, and the current ascent beginning
at 1094 does not look ‘impulsive,’ so confidence is not great here. A break below 1103 would suggest
this model is WRONG and there is something else transpiring.

1033
(X)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c”
S&P 500 (180 min.) ~ A “c” Wave Ends? 5
1150
3

1
1130
4 ( 1 )?
“a” b alt: 4 of “c”
d
5
1113

2
3

1094
e
1086 “b”
4 a c

1
On the 1/2/10 report we were looking for a completed Elliott Wave up from the 1033. There is now some
good evidence that we have completed a move. This final “c” wave definitely has the look of a “terminal”
pattern in that the various legs higher are “corrective” in nature, not impulsive. The move down from 1150
was the sharpest break we’ve seen since in a few weeks. 1130 and 1113 are clear technical support
points for bulls. If these levels start giving way in a convincing way, then we’ll have to conclude that
2 we’re in the beginning stages of a major market turn.

1033
(X)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Daily ~ A “Triple” Concluded? ( Z ) of - B -?
“c”
1050 “e”?
Observe the trajectory of the various waves higher. “a”
The upside momentum is clearly slowing down… (Y) “x”
“c”
“d”?
“b”
1036
“a” (23.6%)
1033
“w” “y”
“b” (X)
(W)

869
(X)

If we did finish the (Z)-Wave of a “triple,” then the count from 667 would look like this model. We should
see the market collapse down to the 1036 level, which is the 23.6% retracement. That level would also
align will with prior resistance/support. It’s easy to imagine plenty of buying support in the 1036 zone.
For months I’ve been envisioning a “triangle” conclusion to this whole pattern, so I’ve outlined that
possibility here as well.

667
-A-
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 (Z)
S&P 500 Daily ~ A Triple Nearing Conclusion? “c”

1
“a”
Reprinted from 1/2/10 “x”
(Y) 2
“c”
“b”

“a” 1029/1033
“w” “y”
“b” (X)
(W)

869
(X)

This is a model that’s been highlighted for several weeks now, and it’s a popular one among many
technicians. There are some problems with it (i.e. the “c” in (Y) is too short lived), but the bottom
line is that “something” concluded around 1029/1033. Therefore, we should be able to count out a
wave from that area. From that level, it’s now possible to see an “abc” taking shape, but for now the
“c”-wave is too short in price and duration. This model should take the S&P to at least 1145, but a
more likely target would be 1177, for an “a”=“c”

667
-A-
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 S&P 500 (20 min.) ~ A sharp slide….

Relatively sharp moves in price always gets one’s attention, especially after (Z)
setting a marginally higher high. It’s difficult to know what the ‘micro’ count was “c”
down from 1150, but the bears need to turn it into a continuing five wave move 5
lower. 1143 is critical resistance for the most bearish case. The move was 1150
powerful enough that 1147 should not be bettered in the very short term….

The final leg higher was itself If this was the first impulse
a type of terminal pattern-- leg of a new trend, it should
this wasn’t impulsive. not get above this level.

( 1 )?
alt: 4 of “c”

A rollover on Tuesday that takes out

1131 would look very bearish.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

<B>
1576

<B>
S&P 500 Weekly ~Fibonacci Analysis
1440

These various Fibonacci retracements are getting some analysts very excited.
However, it’s less likely for a counter-trend wave to adhere to a Fibbo
retrace. The notable guideline is that a Wave-2 should not retrace much
more than 61.8%. So, if the move from 1440  667 was a Primary -1-, then
1,445 should NOT be decisively bettered.

If the move from 1576  667 was a Primary-1,

as many orthodox Ellioticians believe, then
1,229 should not be decisively bettered. Any
solid break of that level would put a major
hole in that big Primary Wave -1- theory.
Reprinted from 1/2/10

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 Weekly ~ Time
<B>
1576
There’s a tendency for waves to take much longer to complete than can be anticipated. For
instance, there are some Ellioticians that are bracing for a Primary Wave-3 lower. While
that’s possible, it’s equally possible that the rally we’ve witnessed is merely the first wave up
<B> of a more complicated correction. In fact, if this is a Primary -B- wave, and not a Wave -II-,
1440 then it will likely to take much longer to complete. So, when this market does correct 30%
next year, and people start talking about taking out the lows, this chart should be considered.

Reprinted from 1/2/10

( C ) of - B - or - II -

(A)

Both of these moves would

be fun to ride.
End of 2011?

(B)

73 Week - A - Wave 146 Week - B - Wave?

667
- A - or - I -

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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