PROBABILIT

THEOREMS of PROBABILITY:
Theorem 1. Probability is expressed as a number

between 1.000 and 0, where a value of 1.000 is a

certainty that an event will occur and a value of 0 is a
certainty that an event will not occur.
Theorem 2. If P(A) is the probability that event A will

occur, then the probability will not occur, P(A), is 1 P(A).

Sample Problem: If the probability of finding an error on an income
tax return is 0.04 what is the probability of finding an acceptable
return?

Solution:
0.960

P(A) = 1.000 P(A)

= 1.000 - 0.040 =

When to Use Theorems 3, 4, 6 and 7

One event
Out of Two or
More Events
|
--------------------------------|
|

Theorem 3 Theorem 4
MutuallyNot Mutually
Exclusive
Exclusive

Two or More Events

Out of Two or More
Events
|
|

-----------------------------|

Theorem 6
Theorem 7
Independent Dependent

Theorem 3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events,

then the probability that either event A or event B

will occur is the sum of their respective probabilities.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Mutually exclusive means that the occurrence of one event
makes the other event impossible. Thus, if one throw of a die a
3 occurred (event A), then event B, say a 5, could not possibly
occur.
Note: Whenever an or is verbalized, the mathematical
operation is addition, or as we shall see in Theorem 4, it can
be subtraction. Theorem 3 was illustrated with two events it is
equally applicable for more than two [P(A or B or or F) = P(A)
+ P(B) + + P(F)]. Theorem 3 is frequently referred to as the
additive law of probability.

Sample Problem: Table below shows Inspection

Results by Supplier

Supplier No. Acceptable

No. Nonconforming
Total
X
50 3
53
Y
125 6
131
Z
752
77
Total
250
11
261

If the 261 parts described in the Table are contained in a box, what is the
probability of selecting a random part produced by supplier X or by
supplier Z?
Solution: P(X or Z) = P(X) + P(Z) = (53 + 77)/261 = 0.498
What is the probability of selecting a nonconforming part from supplier X
or an acceptable part from supplier Z?
P(nc X or ac Z) = P(nc X) + P(ac Z) = (3 + 75)/261 = 0.299

Theorem 4. If event A and event B are not mutually

exclusive events, then the probability of either event
A or event B or both is given by P(A or B or both) =
P(A) + P(B) - P(both)
Note: Events that are not mutually exclusive have
some outcomes in common.

Sample Problem: If the 261 parts described above are contained

in a box, what is the probability that a randomly selected part
will be from supplier X or a nonconforming unit?

Solution : P(X or nc or both) = P(X) + P(nc) P(X and

nc) = (53 + 11 3)/261 = 0.234

Venn Diagram for Theorem 4 of the above sample

Theorem 5. The sum of the probabilities of the events of a

situation is equal to 1.000. P(A) + P(B) + + P(N) =
1.000

Sample Problem: A health inspector examines three products in a

subgroup to determine if they are acceptable. From past experience
it is known that the probability of finding nonconforming units in the
sample of 3 is 0.990, the probability of 1 nonconforming unit in the
sample of 3 is 0.006, and the probability of finding 2 nonconforming
units in the sample of 3 is 0.003. What is the probability of finding 3
nonconforming units in the sample of 3?

Solution: There are only 4 events to this situation: 0 nc

unit, 1 nc unit, 2 nc units & 3 nc units.
P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 1.000
0.990 + 0.006 + 0.003 + P(3) = 1.000
P(3) = 0.001

Theorem 6. If A and B are independent events, then the

probability of both A and B occurring in the product of their
respective probabilities. P(A and B) = P(A) + P(B)

Note: An independent event is one where its occurrence has no influence

on the probability of the other events or events. This theorem is referred
to as the multiplicative law of probabilities. Whenever an and is
verbalized, the mathematical operation is multiplication.
Sample Problem: If the 261 parts described in the above Table are
contained in a box, what is the probability that two randomly selected
parts will be from supplier X and supplier Y? Assume that the first part is
returned to the box before the second part is selected (called with
replacement).

Solution: P(X and Y) = P(X) * P(Y) = (53/261)(131/261)

= 0.102

Theorem 7. If A and B are dependent events, the

probability of both A and B occurring is the product of the
probability of A and the probability that if A occurred, then
B will occur also. P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)
Note: The symbol P(B|A) is defined as the probability of event B
provided that event A has occurred. A dependent event is one whose
occurrence influences the probability of the other event or events. This
theorem is referred to as the conditional theorem, since the probability
of the second event depends on the result of the first event. It is
applicable to >2 events.

Sample Problem: Assume that in the preceding problem the first part
was not returned to the box before the second part is selected. What
is the probability?
Solution: P(X and Y) = P(X) x P(Y|X) = (53/261)(131/260) = 0.102

What is the probability of both parts from supplier Z?

Solution: P(Z and Z) = P(Z) x P(Z|Z)

= (77/261)(76/260) = 0.086
Sample Problem using theorem 3 and 6: What is the
probability that two randomly selected parts (with
replacement) will have one acceptable from
supplier X and one acceptable from supplier Y or
supplier Z?
Solution: P[ac X and (ac Y or ac Z)]= P(ac X)[P(ac
Y) + P(ac Z)
= (50/261)(125/261+75/261) =
0.147

Exercises:
1. If an event is certain to occur, what is its probability? If an
event will not occur, what is its probability?
2. What is the probability that you will live forever? What is the
probability that an octopus will fly?
3. If the probability of obtaining a 3 on a 6-sided die is 0.167,
what is the probability of obtaining any number but a 3?
4. Determine an event that has a probability of 1.000.
5. The probability of drawing a pink chip from a bowl of
different-colored chips is 0.35, the probability of a blue chip
is 0.46, the probability of a green chip is 0.15, and the
probability of a purple chip is 0.04. What is the probability of
a blue or a purple chip? What is the probability of a pink or a
blue chip?
6. At any hour in a hospital intensive care unit the probability
of an emergency is 0.247. What is the probability that there
will be tranquility for the staff?

7. If a hotel has 20 king-size beds, 50 queen-size beds, 100

double beds, and 30 twin beds available, what is the
probability that you will be given a queen-size or a twin bed
when you register?
8. A ball is drawn at random from a container that holds 8
yellow balls numbered 1 to 8, 6 orange balls numbered 1 to
6, and 10 gray balls numbered 1 to 10. What is the
probability of obtaining an orange ball or a ball numbered 5
or an orange ball numbered 5 in a draw of one ball? What is
the probability of a gray ball or a ball numbered 8 or a gray
ball numbered 8 in a draw of one ball?
9. If the probability of obtaining 1 nonconforming unit in a
sample of 2 from a large lot of neoprene gaskets is 0.18 and
the probability of 2 nonconforming units is 0.25, what is the
probability of 0 nonconforming units?
10. Using #9 problem, find the probability of obtaining 2
nonconforming units on the 1st sample of 2 and 1
nonconforming unit on the 2nd sample of 2. What is the

FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF
COUNTING
If an operation can be performed in n1
ways and it has been done, a 2nd
operation can be performed in n2 ways
and it has been done , the 3rd operation
can be performed in n3 ways and so on ,
then all these operations can be
performed in n1 n2 n3 ....nk

EXAMPLE
1. In how many ways can one order a bottle of
softdrinks and a sandwich if a canteen offers 8
different
softdrinks
and
7
different
sandwiches?
Solution : 8 x 7 = 56 ways

2. How many 2 digits numbers can be formed

from 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 if the number formed is odd?
Solution : since odd number : 1 , 3 , 5 = 3 ways
then the tens place can be any of the 4 digits
therefore : 4 x 3 = 12 different ways

EXAMPLE
3. Given : 0 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 9
a) How many 3 digits numbers can be formed from
these digits if no two digits are to be the same?
b) How many 3 digit numbers can be formed if a
digit
may be repeated.
Solution:
a) 4 choices for the hundreds ( excluding 0) x 4 choices for the tens x
3 choices for the units
b) 4 choices for the hundreds ( excluding 0) x 5 choices for the tens x
5 choices for the units

EXAMPLE
4. In how many ways can 3 coins fall?
Solution :
a coin can fall in 2 ways : H , T

3 coins can fall in : 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

5. How many possible outcomes will there

be in tossing 2 dice?
Solution :
A die can fall in 6 ways
2 dice can fall in 6 x 6 = 36 ways

PERMUTATION
an arrangement of n different objects.
a permutation of a no. of objects in an

arrangement of all parts of these objects in a

definite order.

The permutation of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

given by:

nPr = n(n-1)(n-2)......(n-r+1)
=

if r = n

= n!

or: if r = n, the number of permutations of n distinct objects is:

nPn = n(n)(n-1)(n-2)......1 = n!
n! read as n factorial

3!
2!
4!
0!

=
=
=
=

3x2x1=6
2x1=2
4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24
1

EXAMPLE
1. In how many ways can 7 people be
seated in a row if only 4 chairs are
available?
Solution:
The
total
number
of
possible
arrangement of 7 people taken 4 at a
time is nPr = =
=

EXAMPLE

2. In how many ways can 4 boys and 3 girls

seated in a row of 5 chairs?
Solution:
=
=7x6x5x4x3=
P5 =
2520
3.
An encyclopedia consists of 12 volumes,
no. 1 to 12. In how many ways can these
be arranged on a shelf not necessarily in
order?
Solution:
nPn = 12P12 = 12! = n!
12! = 12 x 11 x 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x
5x4x
3x2x1
= 479,001,600

NOTEIf among n objects, n

are identical, n2
others are identical, still n3 others are
identical, the no. of distinct permutations
of the objects taken altogether is:

EXAMPLE
1. How many distinct permutations can be
formed from the letters of the word
STATISTICS?
Solution:
Letters S, T appears 3 times, I appears
twice

P
=

=
= 50,400

EXAMPLE
2. In how many ways can 16 balloons be
placed in one after the another if 4 are
yellow, 2 are blue, 6 are red and the rest
are green?

Solution:
P=

= 25,225,200

CIRCULAR PERMUTATION
the number of permutations of n distinct

objects arranged in a circle is:

(n 1)!
Example:
In how many ways can 10 people sit in a
round table if they can sit anywhere?
Solution:
(n-1)! = (10 1)! = 9!
9! = 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x
1
= 362,880

COMBINATIONS

Suppose we have 4 digit numbers: 1, 2, 3, 4

we know that there are 24 different permutations
of 4 different numbers taken 3 at a time.
without regard to the order, there are only 4 ways
in which the 3 can be chosen from the 4. These
are called combinations.

The number of n objects taken r at a time is

denoted by nCr. In the given example we find that
for each combination, there are 3! Or 6 different
permutations, therefore the total number of
permutations can be written as:
4P3 = 4C3 3!

In general:
nPr = nCr r!

nPr = nCr r! (divide by r!)

; nPr =

nCr =

EXAMPLE
1. In how many ways can a committee of 4
be chosen from a group of 8 people?

Solution:
nCr =
C4 =

= 70

EXAMPLE
2. In how many ways in which we can select 2
spades and 3 diamonds from a deck of cards.
Solution : The number of ways in which we
can select 2 from 13.

=
13C2 =

3 diamonds from 13

= 286
13C3 =

By the fundamental principle of counting

13C2 13C3 = (78) (286) = 22,308

EXAMPLE
3. A box contains 5 red , 4 blue and 3 white
balls. In how many ways can we select 3
balls such that:
a. All are different colors
b. All are red
c. Two blue , one white
d. Exactly 2 are blue
e. None is blue

C1 4C1 3C1

a. 5

=
= 5 x 4 x 3 = 60
b. 5

C3 =

= 10

c. 4

C2 3C1 = 6 x 3 = 18

d. 4

C2 8C1 = 6 x 8 = 48

C3 =

e. 8

DISCRETE PROBABILITY

BINOMIAL: - population is infinite

- deals with 2 events (success/failures, good/bad, etc)

- probability is constant
- probability is independent
P(x) = nCx(p)x(1-p)n-x
POISSON: - n is large (greater than 30) & probability is small
- probability is constant
- probability is independent
P(x) = (xe-)/x! = [(np)x e-np]/x!
HYPERGEOMETRIC: - population is finite & rather small
- probability is not constant
- sampling is without replacement
P(x) = (rCx *N-rCn-x)/NCn

SAMPLES & SOLUTIONS

1) A sample of 5 is selected from a steady stream of product
and proportion of NC is 10%.
a) What is the probability of 1NC in the sample
b) What is the probability of 1 or less
c) What is the probability of 2 or more
Solution: a) P(1) = 5C1(.1)1(1-.1)5-1 = 0.328
b) P(1 or less) = P(1) + P(0)
= 0.328 + 5C0(.1)0(1-.1)5-0 = 0.918
c) P(2 or more) = P(2) + + P(5)
= 1 P(1 or less)
= 1- 0.918 = 0.082

2) If 2% of the bulbs produced by a company are defective, determine

that in the sample of 60 bulbs (a) 3 bulbs are defective
b) not more than 3 bulbs are defective
c) at least 2 bulbs are defective
Solution: a) P(3) = [(60*0.02)3 e-1.2]/3! = 0.0867
b) P(not >3) = P(3) + + P(0)
= 0.0867 + [(60*0.02)2 e-1.2]/2! + [(60*0.02)1 e-1.2]/1!
+ [(60*0.02)0 e-1.2]/0! = 0.9662
c) P(at least 2) = P(2) + + P(60)
= 1 P(1 or less)
= 1 [P(1) + P(0)]
=1-[(60*0.02)1 e-1.2]/1!+[(60*0.02)0 e-1.2]/0! = 0.3374

3) A batch of 9 resistors has 3 reject units, what is

the probability of : a) 1 reject in a sample of 4
b) 2 reject in a sample of 4
c) 4 reject in a sample of 4
Solution: a) where: N=3 n=4 & r=3
P(1) = (3C1 *9-3C4-1)/9C4 =0.476
b) P(2) = (3C2 *9-3C4-2)/9C4 =0.357
c) Impossible, or it will not happen, since there are
only 3 rejects in the population.

NORMAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

or CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
- known also as Gaussian Distribution
- the most significant probability distribution in
the entire theory of statistics
- graphically represented by symmetrical bell
shaped curve known as the normal curve

CHARACTERISTICS
- mean, median, mode same value
- curve is symmetrical about the vertical
line which contains the mean
- curve is asymptotic to the horizontal axis
(tail is rarely extended beyond 4 or 5 sd
from the mean
- total area under the curve is equal to one
(1.000)

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
In practice, we find areas under the graph of a normal distribution or
normal curve by performing a simple change of scale, in which we
convert the units of measurement in the original, or x-scale into standard
units, or z-scores by means of this formula: z = (x-)/
In this new scale, z simply tells us how many standard deviations the
corresponding x-value lies above or below the mean of its distribution
Example 1: Find the area under the curve between 12 & 15 with
a) = 10 and = 5

b) = 20 and = 10

Solution: a) z =(12-10)/5=0.40 and z= (15-10)/5=1.00

thus, z = 0.3413 - 0.1554 = 0.1859
b) z =(12-20)/10=-0.80 and z= (15-20)/10=-0.50
thus, z = 0.2881 - 0.1915 = 0.0966
(REFER TO TABLE OF NORMAL CURVE FOR THE VALUES:0.3413, 0.1554, 0.2881, ETC)

Example 2: Find the area under the standard

normal curve between z = -1.20 & z = 0

Solution:

from the table -1.20 = 0.3849

Example 3: If a random variable has the standard

normal distribution, what are the probabilities that

it will take on a value:
a) less than 1.64

d) less than -1.35

b) greater than -0.47

e) between 0.95 & 1.36

c) greater than 0.76

f) between -0.45 & 0.65