Industrial Risk Management

Industrial Risk
Management
Distribution, Romania
Banat and Dobrogea
Rome | September 11th, 2014
Summary
Industrial Risk Methodological framework
Industrial Risk Assessment BANAT and DOBROGEA
Meteorological, Seismic and Flooding Risk Assessment
Industrial Risk Management in Distribution

Purpose and Key Principles
5 key
activities
Identifying
Identifying
risks
risksaffecting
affecting
the
continuity
the continuity
ofofthe
the
distribution
distribution
business
business
Identifying
Identifyingthe
the
most
critical
most critical
assets
assetsand
and
processes
processes
affecting
affecting
unplanned
unplanned
maintenance
maintenance
costs
costsand
and
service
quality
service quality
Aggregating
Aggregating
risk
riskmeasures
measures
atatCompany/
Company/
Country/Division
Country/Division
level
levelthus
thus
allowing
allowing
homogeneous
homogeneous
comparisons
comparisons
among
among
distribution
distribution
networks
networkswithin
within
the
Group
the Group
Merging
Merging
technical
technicalrisk
risk
measures
with
measures with
relevant
relevant
Regulatory
Regulatory
Frameworks
Frameworks
thus
thusevaluating
evaluating
impact
impactofof
industrial
industrialrisks
risks
on
Distribution
on Distribution
Business
Business
economic
economic
margins
margins
Simulating
Simulatingthe
the
efficiency/
efficiency/
effectiveness
effectivenessofof
diverse
diverse
investment
investment
plans
plansininterms
terms
ofofcosts/risk
costs/risk
reduction
reduction
With the purpose of optimizing capex allocation whilst maximizing service

quality levels and targeted return on investment1.
Note 1: from O.D. 672 dated 31/07/2014, responsibilities of Global Infrastructures and Networks Business Line

Processes and technical KPIs
Project
Development and
Construction
Business
Development
Operation
and
Maintenance
Monitored KPIs
Unplanned Maintenance
Costs suffered for reparation
or substitution of
damaged components
Unplanned Interruptions
SAIDI, DEC,
SAIFI, FEC,
HV-MV Customers Outages
VERY LONG OUTAGES
Industrial Risk Management contributes to protect the Group Distribution Companies from
undesired events which may affect the industrial value and the continuity of the
business

Portfolio/drill down analysis
Any cross-cutting portfolio analysis or specific vertical drill-down

Constanta Network Area
Distribuzione
Dobrogea
Calarasi Network Area
Polo SUL
Possibility of comparing different Countries with mature or growing market,

thus identifying the most profitable investments opportunities

Event type and Risk metrics
Unplanned event types:
Ordinary events
Extraordinary events
Expected Costs
Unexpected Costs
Ordinary events:
They have a regular frequency occurrence and the relevant maintenance is already foreseen in the asset
budget. This part of the methodology can complement the traditional methods for budget definition and control
Relevant Risk Metric: Expected Value (EV)
Extra-ordinary events:
They have a very low frequency occurrence, are very difficult to be foreseen and can have high and unexpected
impact on business economics. Their assessment must be handled by risk experts.
Relevant Risk Metric: Value at Risk (VaR), Maximum potential loss that can be suffered in a
specified time horizon with a certain level of confidence (e.g. VaR95% or VaR99% over a one year
time horizon).
6

Focus on Extraordinary Risk models
Equipment Breakdown
HV lines, Primary Substations, MV/MV

substations,
Earthquake Assessments
Seismic response models for

Primary Substations and MV/MV
substations
Meteorological and Flooding

Assessments
Meteorological Risk for HV and MV lines
and Flooding Risk in Primary
Substations
International databases are used to set reference values

Site visits are performed by relevant experts whose evaluation is used as an input in the models

The methodology
Network
Mapping
Technical
performances of
the Assets
Historical Data
Risk Owner
Evaluation
KPIs @
Risk
Risk Expert
Evaluation
External Benchmarks
& DBs
(Direct Costs, SAIDI,

SAIFI, )
Industrial Risk Models and

Monte Carlo simulations
All the information are integrated and elaborated in a probabilistic engine to

calculate the expected and unexpected impact of industrial risks
8

Economic KPIs and Contingeny Plans
Direct Costs
Technical KPIs
Regulatory
Framework
Economic
performances of
the Assets
EBITDA@Risk
Mitigation Actions
The Industrial Risk Management framework allows to combine Risk models with Regulatory
frameworks, in order to measure the impact of industrial risks on Company Ebitda.
It is possible to select the best technical mitigation plans and to measure the extent of their
efficiency/efficacy in terms of costs/risk reduction. Positive effects of different mitigation plans
on Company Ebitda can be measured.
9
Summary
10

Romania, Evolution of activities and People involved
Distribution Romania
Distribution
Romania
Risk Models evolutive maintenance

Training to LRM for Risk Evaluation
activities
Risk calculation
Risk results analysis
Pilot project:
Arad and Slobozia
2013
Risk Assessment
Banat and Dobrogea
2014
Risk Monitoring
Banat and Dobrogea
Risk Assessment
Muntenia (ongoing)
LOCAL RM
HLD RM
Gian Luca Noferi
Antonio Cammarota
2012
Gabriel Garai
Cristiana Amalia Cosma
George Saracin
BUSINESS
UNITS
Loss Data collection and elaboration

(over 700.000 records)
ROO interviews management
(30 people interviewed, BU managers

and technicians)
REO visits (51 HV lines and
75 Primary Substations)
Support throughout
the risk evaluation process
Technical analysis
11

Impact of Industrial Risk on Company EBITDA, VaR 2015
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15 1/27/15
65,7
66,2 67,7 67,9 68,3
1/27/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15 1/27/15
60,7 61,1 62,3 62,8
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
BANAT 2015
EBITDA @ Ind. Risk
(M)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
DOBROGEA 2015
EBITDA @ Ind. Risk
(M)
1/27/15
Since a Regulatory Framework on Power Quality is not presently in place in Romania only
Unplanned Maintenance Costs is considered in the EBITDA variability.
EBITDA Expected Values substantially confirm the Business Plan Values (less than 1% reduction mainly due to
Timisoara MV Network in BANAT).
Uncertainty of EBITDA in BANAT is slightly higher than in DOBROGEA due to Primary Substations contribution (from
0,3 M at EV up to 1,5 M at VaR 99%) .
12

Simulation of Regulatory Framework Impact Risk or Opportunity?
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15 1/27/15
61,9
62,7 67,0 67,9 68,3
1/27/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15 1/27/15
58,3 59,3 61,8 62,3 62,9
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
BANAT 2015
EBITDA @ Ind. Risk
(M)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
DOBROGEA 2015
EBITDA @ Ind. Risk
(M)
1/27/15
The particular Regulatory Framework on Power Quality simulated (similar to the one presently in force in Italy) would most probably be a
Risk (90% of penalties probability) than an Opportunity (10% of reward probability) for Banat
and a
Risk (79% of penalties probability) than an Opportunity (21% of reward probability) for Dobrogea.
Several Regulatory Frameworks can be modeled and compared, thus eventually supporting the Regulatory Dept. in negotiation with ANRE .
ASSUMPTIONS AND NOTES

1) ANRE targets are set considering a 5% improvement in SAIDI and 4% improvement in SAIFI with respect to 2014 forecast values (BANAT SAIDI 243 min/cust, SAIFI 5,6
int/cust DOBROGEA SAIDI 250 min/cust, SAIFI 5,9 int/cust);
2) Maximum Reward/Penalties are set equal to 4% Incomes from Energy Distribution;
13
3) Premium/Penalties are calculated at Network Area level depending upon the SAIDI and SAIFI recovery and the total amount of Energy distributed in the relevant Network
Area

Contribution by Network Area in BANAT
Reward/Penalties (M)
-1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 99
1/27/15
VaR 99
6,3
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95
6,2
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
5,8
1/27/15
EV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 99
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
351,5
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95
1/27/15
1/27/15
296,3
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
EV
1/27/15
250,2
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
SAIFI (num/customer)
SAIDI (min/customer)
1/27/15
1/27/15
EV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 99
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
EV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
-1/27/15
1/27/15
-1/27/15
1/27/15
Direct costs (M)
Hypothesizing a Regulatory Framework on Power Quality considering both the SAIDI and SAIFI levels
in the areas and size of Network Areas in terms of Energy Distributed,
Timisoara would have the most significant impact on both EV and VaR values in BANAT
14

Contribution by Network Area in DOBROGEA
Reward/Penalties (M)
Direct costs (M)
-1/27/15
-1/27/15
-1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 99
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
EV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 99
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
EV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
6,6
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
6,4
1/27/15
EV
6,0
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 99
1/27/15
1/27/15
292,8
1/27/15
VaR 95
1/27/15
1/27/15
280,9
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
EV
253,8
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 99
Hypothesizing a Regulatory Framework on Power Quality considering both the SAIDI and SAIFI levels
in the areas and size of Network Areas in terms of Energy Distributed,
Constanta would have the most significant impact on both EV and VaR values in DOBROGEA
15

BANAT and DOBROGEA 2015 VaR
DOBROGEA 2014
BANAT 2014
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
Direct costs in BANAT

are slightly higher than
in DOBROGEA due to a
more ageing network.
Power Quality KPIs in
DOBROGEA are
slightly higher than the
one in BANAT mainly
due to the contribution
of Calarasi MV
Network (where 14
lines out of 253 cover
40% of SAIDI Risk and
35% of SAIFI Risk).
Increase of BANAT
SAIDI at VaR95% and
VaR99% is due to
higher exposure to
extraordinary risk of
Timisoara and Deva
HV Lines.
16

BANAT and DOBROGEA 2015 VaR Asset comparison
Direct Costs
(/HV km, /MVA, /MV km, /LV km)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
HV Lines
Primary
Substations
MV Network
LV Network
1/
27
/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/
27
/1
5
1/
27
/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/
1/27/1
1/27/1
27
5
5
/1
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/
27
/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/
1/27/1
1/27/1
27
5
5
/1
1/27/15 1/27/15
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/
27
/1
1/27/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/
27
1/27/15 /1
1/27/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/1
5
1/27/1
5
1/
1/27/1
1/27/1
27
5
5
/1
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/
1/27/1
1/27/1
27
5
5
/1
1/27/15 1/27/15
51/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/
27
/1
5
1/
27
/1
1/27/1
5
1/27/1
5 17
1/27/1
5
1/27/1
5

BANAT 2015 VaR Contribution by Network Area
BANAT 2015
Direct Costs (k)
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
BANAT 2015
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
351,5
1/27/15 1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
BANAT 2015
6,2
1/27/151/27/15
250,2
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
6,3
5,8
296,3
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/
27
/1
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/
27
/1
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/
27
1/27/15 1/27/15
18
1/27/15

BANAT 2015 VaR Example of drill-down analysis
BANAT 2015
1/27/15 1/27/15
TIMISOARA 2015
1/27/15
351,5
1/27/15
296,3
250,2
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
TIMISOARA 2015 MV Network

1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
19
1/27/15

TIMISOARA Network Area: critical assets at EV (ordinary risk)
Direct Costs (k)
MV LINE
1/27/15
1/27/15
A20 DEZESTI-LUGOJ TM+RE
MV LINE
A20 TOPOLOVAT-BUZIAS TM
MV LINE
A20 LABASINT-LUGOJ TM+AR
MV LINE
SAIDI
(min/customer)
SAIFI
(num/customer)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
A20 ROMANESTI-FAGET TM
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
The line is 90 km long and it is equipped

with ageing insulators and
conductors. It has also problems with
vegetation and birds frequently
causing interruptions. The line supplies
2.820 LV customers and 1 MV customer.
Its a very long line (125 km), equipped with

ageing insulators and conductors and also
suffering problems with vegetation and
birds. The line supplies 2.615 LV customers
and 4 MV customers (with a capacity of 3,5
MW). Five MV generations plants are
connected to the MV line (with a capacity of
7,5 MW).
Its a long line (102 km), suffering

problems with ageing insulators,
conductors and surge arresters.
The line supplies 3.280 LV
customers and 3 MV customers.
The line is 72 km long, with problems

related to ageing insulators and
conductors. It is difficult to access the
line due to vegetation and there are
also problems with birds that frequently
cause interruptions. The line supplies
2.387 LV customers and 1 MV customer.
20

TIMISOARA Network Area: critical assets at VaR99% (extraordinary risk)
Direct Costs (k)
HV LINES
GROUP 4-R (1)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
SAIFI
(num/customer)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
I.U.R.T. LUGOJ
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
MV LINE
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
A20 DEZESTI-LUGOJ TM+RE
MV LINE
A20 MASLOC-ORTISOARA TM+AR
1/27/15
1)
SAIDI
(min/customer)
1/27/15
The group is made of 18 HV lines. Main problem

is ageing insulators of RESITA-CFR
CARANSEBES and IAZ-CFR CARANSEBES HV
lines and also a number of towers and related civil
works. To lines belonging to this Group 72.441 LV
customers, 251 MV customers (86 MW),10 HV
customers (255 MW) and 12 power generation
plants (11 MV 25 MW and 1 HV 48 MW) are
connected.
The PS (year of commissioning 1978) is

equipped with ageing HV section and MV
section and obsolete HV protection
system. OLTCs of all transformers need to
be repaired.
The PS supplies a third of total customers
of Lugoj area -14.489 LV customers and 11
MV customers (with a capacity of 8 MW).
The line is 90 km long and is equipped

conductors. There are also problems
with vegetation and with birds that
frequently cause interruptions. The line
supplies 2.820 LV customers and 1 MV
customer.
The line is 82 km long and is equipped

conductors. It is difficult to access the
line because of vegetation. Furthermore
birds frequently cause interruptions. The
line supplies 3.276 LV customers and 6
MV customers (1,6 MW).
1/27/15
21
ANINA-PONOR, ORAVITA-MOLDOVA NOUA 1, ORAVITA-MOLDOVA NOUA 2, PONOR-MOLDOVA NOUA, MOLDOVA NOUA-SFANTA ELENA, TOPLET-COZLA, TOPLET-CRUSOVAT, ARMENISPOARTA, CFR CARANSEBES-BALTA SARATA, RESITA-ANINA, BALTA SARATA-ARMENIS, RESITA-CFR CARANSEBES, RESITA-CIUDANOVITA, RESITA-ORAVITA, CIUDANOVITA-ORAVITA,
CRUSOVAT-POARTA, IAZ-CFR CARANSEBES, COZLA-SFANTA ELENA.

BANAT: critical assets for HV-MV Customers
HV-MV Customers
(interrupted kW)
Critical asset at VaR99%
Extra-ordinary Risk
HV-MV Customers
(interrupted kW)
Critical asset at EV
Ordinary Risk
1
2
3
4
5
DEVA
1/27/15
HV LINE
Group 4 (1)
DEVA
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
LAMINOARE 110/6KV
TIMISOARA
1/27/15
HV LINE
Group 7-T (2)
DEVA
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
PETRILA 110/20/6KV
TIMISOARA
1/27/15
MV LINE
A20 IAZ MUNTELE MIC-OTELU ROSU RE
1)
2)
3)
4)
TIMISOARA
HV LINE
Group 7-R (3)
DEVA
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
LAMINOARE 110/6KV
DEVA
1/27/15
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
PETRILA 110/20/6KV
1/27/15
DEVA
1/27/15
HV LINE
Group 4 (1)
DEVA
1/27/15
HV LINE
Group 8 (4)
ARENA LUPENI-LUPENI SUD, PAROSENI-LUPENI SUD, BARU MARE-ARENA LUPENI, PAROSENI-URICANI, LUPENI SUD-URICANI;
SACALAZ-IMT, TIMISOARA-PADUREA VERDE, PADUREA VERDE-IMT;
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
RESITA-MOCIUR 1, RESITA-MOCIUR 2;
ANINOASA-PETROSANI CFR, VULCAN-LIVEZENI, LONEA-PETRILA, CAPRISOARA-PETROSANI SUD, PAROSENI-BARU MARE-ANINOASA CI, PAROSENI-CAPRISOARA,
BARU MARE-LONEA, PETROSANI CFR-PETRILA, PAROSENI-VULCAN, PETRILA-LIVEZENI, PETRILA-PETROSANI SUD.
1/27/15
22

BANAT: assets which may lead to Very long outages
Very Long Outages
(Customers*h/target)
Extra-ordinary Risk
1
2
3
4
5
1/27/15
TIMISOARA
HV LINES
Group 4-R (1)
DEVA
1/27/15
HV LINES
Group 3 (2)
ARAD
LV NETWORK
NADAB ZONA INDUSTRIALA
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
FRATELIA 110/20/10KV
DEVA
MV LINE
A6 PA 2 PETROSANI L2-PETROSANI SUD DV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
7
8
9
10
ARAD
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
POLTURA 110/20 KV
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
MUSICESCU 110/20 KV
TIMISOARA
LV NETWORK
TIMISOARA ZONA PLOPI
ARAD
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
MURESEL 110/20/6 KV
MV LINE
A20 SEMLAC-PECICA AR
ANINA-PONOR, ORAVITA-MOLDOVA NOUA 1, ORAVITA-MOLDOVA NOUA 2, PONOR-MOLDOVA NOUA, MOLDOVA NOUA-SFANTA

ELENA, TOPLET-COZLA, TOPLET-CRUSOVAT, ARMENIS-POARTA, CFR CARANSEBES-BALTA SARATA, RESITA-ANINA, BALTA
SARATA-ARMENIS, RESITA-CFR CARANSEBES, RESITA-CIUDANOVITA, RESITA-ORAVITA, CIUDANOVITA-ORAVITA, CRUSOVATPOARTA, IAZ-CFR CARANSEBES, COZLA-SFANTA ELENA.
2)
ORASTIE-SIBOT, DECEBAL-DEVA CFR, CALAN-IMO, SIMERIA-CALAN, MINTIA-DECEBAL, IMO-ORASTIE, HASDAT-CALAN, DEVA

CFR-PESTIS, DEVA CFR-SIMERIA..
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
ARAD
1)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
23

DOBROGEA 2015 VaR Contribution by Network Area
DOBROGEA 2015
Direct Costs (k)
1/27/15
DOBROGEA 2015
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
280,9
1/27/15
DOBROGEA 2015
1/27/15
292,8
6,4
6,6
6,0
253,8
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/
27
/1
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/
27
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/
27
1/27/15 1/27/15
24
1/27/15

DOBROGEA 2015 VaR Example of drill-down analysis
DOBROGEA 2015
1/27/15
CALARASI 2015
1/27/15 1/27/15
280,9
292,8
253,8
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
CALARASI 2015 MV Network

1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
25
1/27/15

DOBROGEA 2015 VaR Example of drill-down analysis
DOBROGEA 2015
1/27/15
CONSTANTA 2015
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
280,9
292,8
253,8
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
CONSTANTA 2015 Primary Sub.

1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
26
1/27/15

CALARASI Network Area: critical assets at EV (ordinary risk)
Direct Costs (k)
MV LINE
1/27/15
1/27/15
L 20 KV MANASTIREA CL
MV LINE
SAIFI
(num/customer)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
L 20 KV INTEROLTENITA CL
MV LINE
SAIDI
(min/customer)
L 20 KV OLTINA CL
MV LINE
L 20 KV DUNARICA 1 CL
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
The line is 68 km long, with problems of

ageing insulators and conductors. It is
difficult to access the line and the GSM
signal is very low (creating problems for
the remote control peripheral units). The
line supplies 6.454 LV customers and 9
MV customers (1,8 MW).
The line is 27 km long, equipped

conductors (especially on the main
feeder). The line supplies 2.087 LV
customers and 1 MV customer.
The line is 24 km long, equipped

with ageing and damaged
insulators and conductors. The
line supplies 2.574 LV customers.
The line is 76 km long, equipped with

ageing insulators and conductors. The
line crosses a river and 200 m of
conductor should be replaced by
underwater cable. There are frequent
thefts events. The line supplies 3.446 LV
customers and 4 MV customers (0,6 MW).
27

CONSTANTA Network Area: critical assets at VaR99% (extraordinary risk)
Direct Costs (k)
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
TULCEA ORAS 110/20/6 KV
1/27/15
1/27/15
SAIDI
(min/customer)
1/27/15
1/27/15
This line (102 km) crosses the Danube

Delta, and is a feeder of the PS Crisan. The
line is only accessible by boat and crosses
an area with high density of vegetation, it
also has problems with birds that cause
interruptions. The line supplies 1074 LV
customers and 2 MV customer (0,5 MW).
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
The line is 9 km long, with problems of

obsolete underground cable, multiple
joints and a lot of interruptions caused
by the interventions of third parties.
The line supplies 2.884 LV customers
and 1 MV customer (0,4 MW).
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
LES 20 KV 2725 PT 529 CT
CENTRU I 110/20/10 KV

equipped with ageing HV section and MV
section, obsolete protection system and
has an old transformer (TR 1 undersized). The PS supplies a quarter of
total customers of Tulcea area -20.876 LV
customers and 30 MV customers (15 MW).
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
MV LINE
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
L 20 KV 10202 TL
MV LINE
SAIFI
(num/customer)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15

equipped with obsolete HV section
and old transformers. The PS supplies
26.715 LV customers and 11 MV
customers (with a capacity of 10 MW).
This PS is the only supply source for
PS Tabacarie.
28

DOBROGEA: critical assets for HV-MV Customers
HV-MV Customers
(interrupted kW)
Extra-ordinary Risk
HV-MV Customers
(interrupted kW)
Critical asset at EV
Ordinary Risk
1
2
3
4
5
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
HV LINES
Group 30-CT (1)
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
HV LINES
Group 8-CT
(2)
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
MV LINE
L 20 KV 9903 TL
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
MV LINE
LES 20 KV 0133 CARAGEA CT
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
SARINASUF 110/20 KV
1)
MEDGIDIA SUD-FCM 2 (C1), MEDGIDIA SUD-FCM 2 (C2);
2)
MIRCEA VODA-TORTOMANU-CERNAVODA 1, MIRCEA VODA-TORTOMANU-CERNAVODA 2;
3)
4)
BASARABI-MEDGIDIA SUD C1, BASARABI-MEDGIDIA SUD C2;

SILISTEA-MEDGIDIA NORD, TOPALU-MEDGIDIA NORD, HARSOVA-SILISTEA, HARSOVA-TOPALU.
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
1/27/15
HV LINES
Group 8-CT
(2)
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
1/27/15
HV LINES
Group 30-CT (1)
1/27/15
CONSTANTA
HV LINES
Group 19-CT (3)
1/27/15
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
HV LINES
Group 13-CT (4)
CALARASI
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
OLTENITA SUD 110/20 KV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
29

DOBROGEA: assets which may lead to Very long outages
Very Long Outages
(Customers*h/target)
Extra-ordinary Risk
1
2
3
4
5
1)
1/27/15
CALARASI
HV LINES
Group 2-C (1)
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
1/27/15
1/27/15
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
1/27/15
1/27/15
ABATOR 110/20/10 KV
CALARASI
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
1/27/15
1/27/15
URZICENI 110/20 KV
CONSTANTA
1/27/15 1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
DRAGALINA-CALARASI, PIETROIU-FETESTI, CALARASI-PIETROIU, SLOBOZIA SUD-DRAGALINA.
7
8
9
10
1/27/15
CONSTANTA
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
MEDGIDIA NORD 110/6 KV
CALARASI
MV LINE
L 20 KV COCORA SL
1/27/15
1/27/15
CALARASI
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
1/27/15
1/27/15
BUDESTI 110/20 KV
1/27/15
CALARASI
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
SLOBOZIA SUD 110/20 KV
CALARASI
1/27/15
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
1/27/15
OLTENITA SUD 110/20 KV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
30

DOBROGEA: specific risk in Constanta
Thickness of steel was reduced from

12 mm to 1 mm because of corrosion
CIH-COR Towers (low grade steel) were

designed by the Institute for Studies and
Power Engineering (Romania) in 1978, after
1982 construction of this type of towers was
abandoned.
Presently there are 588 CIH-COR Towers in
Constanta and 406 in Tulcea.
Medgidia Sud - Basarabi HV line

Medgidia Sud - FCM II HV line
11 September 2013
31

Mitigation Plans Analysis
When the industrial risk measurement is completed, it is possible to identify the most critical assets in the
Network Area and identify potential technical mitigation plans.
The extent of their efficiency/efficacy can be measured in terms of costs/risk reduction and in terms of
impact on Company EBITDA.
Economic performances
of the Assets
Direct Costs
EBITDA@Risk
Technical KPIs
Regulatory
Framework
Mitigation Actions
In carrying out the mitigation plans analysis for Banat and Dobrogea, the most critical assets have been
taken into account.
For each of them a potential technical solution has been provided and its efficiency in terms of risk
reduction has been calculated.
Each mitigation action is provided with a priority order within the relevant Company and defined as critical,
very high, high priority.
32

Mitigation Plans Analysis - BANAT
Mitigation Plan costs:
Positive effect of mitigation plans on Reward/Penalties (M)
BANAT 30.361.000
BANAT HV Network 21.375.000
ARAD MV/LV Network 215.000
DEVA MV/LV Network 4.467.000
TIMISOARA MV/LV Network 4.304.000
1/27/15 M
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
Positive effect of mitigation plans on Banat EBITDA (M)
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
Positive 5effect
1/27/15
1/27/15
61,9 62,7 67,0 67,9
of mitigation plans on
SAIDI (min/cust) and SAIFI (num/cust)
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
Penalty Cap -4,7 M
1/27/15 M
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
Positive effect of mitigation plans on

Direct Costs (M)
1/27/15 M
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
65,2 67,9 70,4
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15

1) ANRE targets are set considering a 5% improvement in SAIDI and 4% improvement in SAIFI with respect to 2014 forecast values (SAIDI 243 min/cust, SAIFI 5,6 int/cust);
33
3) Reward/Penalties are calculated at Network Area level depending upon the SAIDI and SAIFI recovery and the total amount of Energy distributed in the relevant Network Area
4) Increase of Network Tariff due to higher RAB is not considered.

Mitigation Plans Analysis - DOBROGEA
Mitigation Plan costs:
Positive effect of mitigation plans on Reward/Penalties (M)

1/27/15 M
DOBROGEA 19.403.000
DOBROGEA HV Network 13.684.000
CALARASI MV/LV Network 4.282.000
CONSTANTA MV/LV Network 1.437.000
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
Positive effect of mitigation plans on Dobrogea EBITDA (M)
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
Positive 5effect
1/27/15
1/27/15
58,3 59,3 61,8 62,3
of mitigation plans on
SAIDI (min/cust) and SAIFI (num/cust)
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
Penalty Cap -4,1 M
1/27/15 M
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
Positive effect of mitigation plans on

Direct Costs (M)
1/27/15 M
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
62,0 62,3 62,7 64,1
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15 1/27/15
1/27/15
1/2
7/1
5
1/27/15
1/27/15

1) ANRE targets are set considering a 5% improvement in SAIDI and 4% improvement in SAIFI with respect to 2014 forecast values (SAIDI 250 min/cust, SAIFI 5,9 int/cust);
34
3) Reward/Penalties are calculated at Network Area level depending upon the SAIDI and SAIFI recovery and the total amount of Energy distributed in the relevant Network Area
4) Increase of Network Tariff due to higher RAB is not considered.

Mitigation Plans Analysis BANAT, HV Center
Priority order Network Area
Asset Type
Asset Name
Mitigation Description
Group 4-R
Repair of damaged foundations of towers, paint and repair of metallic towers structures,
deforestation works in the corridor line, installation of longitudinal differential protection on the line,
substitution of damaged /ageing insulators
Critical
1/43
TIMISOARA
HV LINES
Critical
2/43
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY
I.U.R.T. LUGOJ
SUBSTATIONS
HV section and protection system complete renewal, replacement of MV (20 kV / 6 kV)

switchgears, replacement of OLTC of transformers
Critical
3/43
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY
FRATELIA 110/20/10 KV
SUBSTATIONS
Restoration of civil works (supports of 110 kV equipments, MV switchgear building particularly the
roof); replacement of support insulators of HV disconnectors and busbars, replacement of OLTC
mechanisms of 4 transformers, restoration of water evacuation system
Critical
4/43
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY
VICTORIA 110/20/10 KV
SUBSTATIONS
HV section and protection system complete renewal, replacement of MV (20 kV / 10 kV)

switchgears, replacement of OLTC of transformers; restoration of the MV switchgear building
(particularly the roof)
Critical
10/43
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY
BALTA SARATA
SUBSTATIONS 110/20/6KV
HV section complete renewal, replacement of MV switchgears, replacement of OLTC of

Transformer 2
Critical
12/43
ARAD
PRIMARY
POLTURA 110/20KV
SUBSTATIONS
HV circuit breakers replacement and TR2 OLTC reparation
Critical
14/43
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY
BOCSA 110/20/6KV
SUBSTATIONS
HV section and protection complete renewal, replacement of MV (20 kV / 6 kV) switchgears,

replacement of OLTC of transformers
Critical
15/43
DEVA
HV LINES
Substitution of damaged /ageing insulators and conductor
Very High
21/43
ARAD
PRIMARY
MURESEL 110/20/6KV
SUBSTATIONS
Gruppo 3
(1)
(2)
HV section complete renewal (SF6 AIS components)
1)
ANINA-PONOR, ORAVITA-MOLDOVA NOUA 1, ORAVITA-MOLDOVA NOUA 2, PONOR-MOLDOVA NOUA, MOLDOVA NOUA-SFANTA ELENA, TOPLET-COZLA, TOPLETCRUSOVAT, ARMENIS-POARTA, CFR CARANSEBES-BALTA SARATA, RESITA-ANINA, BALTA SARATA-ARMENIS, RESITA-CFR CARANSEBES, RESITA-CIUDANOVITA,
RESITA-ORAVITA, CIUDANOVITA-ORAVITA, CRUSOVAT-POARTA, IAZ-CFR CARANSEBES, COZLA-SFANTA ELENA.
2)
ORASTIE-SIBOT, DECEBAL-DEVA CFR, CALAN-IMO, SIMERIA-CALAN, MINTIA-DECEBAL, IMO-ORASTIE, HASDAT-CALAN, DEVA CFR-PESTIS, DEVA CFR-SIMERIA..
35

Mitigation Plans Analysis BANAT, HV Center
1)
2)
3)
4)
Asset Type
Asset Name
Very High
22/43
ARAD
PRIMARY
TEBA 110/20/6KV
SUBSTATIONS
HV section complete renewal, replacement of MV switchgears and protection system, installation of

a second transformer (TR2, 25 MVA)
Very High
23/43
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY
MUSICESCU 110/20 KV
SUBSTATIONS
HV section complete renewal, replacement of MV switchgears and protection system, installation of

a second transformer (TR2, 25 MVA)
High
32/43
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY
PADUREA VERDE 110/20
SUBSTATIONS KV
HV section and protection system complete renewal
High
36/43
TIMISOARA
HV LINES
Group 3-R
Repair of damaged foundations of towers, paint and repair of metallic towers structures; substitution
of damaged /ageing insulators
High
37/43
ARAD
HV LINES
Group 6 and 7
High
39/43
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY
BARZAVA 110/6 KV
SUBSTATIONS
Replacement of MV switchgears
High
42/43
TIMISOARA
HV LINES
Group 10-T
Replacement of 2 damaged towers
High
43/43
DEVA
HV LINES
Group 8
(4)
(1)
(3)
(2)
HV grid meshing between Pincota and Sebis (35 km)
Substitution of damaged /ageing insulators and overhead earth wire in PAROSENI-BARU MAREANINOASA CI, ANINOASA-PETROSANI CFR and BARU MARE-LONEA HV lines; Replacement
of 3 towers in CAPRISOARA-PETROSANI SUD and , VULCAN-LIVEZENI HV lines
IAZ-OTELU ROSU, BARU MARE-OTELUL ROSU, OTELU ROSU-RUSCHITA-RETEZAT

ARAD-PINCOTA (Group 6); VIRFURI-SEBIS (Group 7)
LUGOJ-FAGET
ANINOASA-PETROSANI CFR, VULCAN-LIVEZENI, LONEA-PETRILA, CAPRISOARA-PETROSANI SUD, PAROSENI-BARU MARE-ANINOASA CI, PAROSENI-CAPRISOARA,
BARU MARE-LONEA, PETROSANI CFR-PETRILA, PAROSENI-VULCAN, PETRILA-LIVEZENI, PETRILA-PETROSANI SUD.
36

Mitigation Plans Analysis BANAT, MV and LV Network
Asset Type
Asset Name
Replacement of damaged insulators, conductors, several poles and brackets on 10 km of the MV
line, replacement of existing surge arresters with metal-oxide surge arresters
Critical
5/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 TOPOLOVAT-BUZIAS
TM
Critical
6/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
of the non-enclosed MV switchgears (without mechanical interlocking system) in the

A20 SACU-BALTA SARATA Replacement
secondary substations; replacement of damaged insulators, brackets, conductors, several poles of
RE
the MV line
Critical
7/43
ARAD
MV NETWORK A20 MONEASA-SEBIS AR
Critical
8/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 ROMANESTI-FAGET
TM
Replacement of damaged insulators, conductors, several poles on 7 km of the MV line,

replacement of existing surge arresters with metal-oxide surge; substitution of damaged LV power
distribution boxes, relocation of the MV line on the roadsides (20 km)
Critical
9/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 DEZESTI-LUGOJ
TM+RE

line, replacement of existing surge arresters with metal-oxide surge arresters
Critical
11/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK
A20 HATEG-CALAN
STREI DV
MV grid meshing between A20 HATEG-CALAN STREI DV and A20 CASTAU-ORASTIE DV (5 km)
- refurbishment of the main feeder (replacement of damaged insulators, conductors, several poles
and brackets on 30 km of the MV line)
Critical
13/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 MANASTIUR-FAGET
TM

line and replacement of existing surge arresters with metal-oxide surge arresters
Very High
16/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 LABASINT-LUGOJ
TM+AR
Replacement of damaged insulators (for 200 poles of the main feeder) and replacement of existing
surge arresters with metal-oxide surge arresters (15 pieces)
Very High
17/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK
A20 CASTAU-ORASTIE
DV

line
Very High
18/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK
A20 BALOMIR-ORASTIE
DV

line, replacement of existing surge arresters and grounding installation of 10 pole mounted
substations; substitution of 3 pole mounted transformers
Very High
19/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK A20 ZAM-ILIA DV
Very High
20/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
Very High
24/43
ARAD
LV NETWORK SANTANA
A20 MASLOCORTISOARA TM+AR
Replacement of 1 pole, bracket, conductor of the MV line
Replacement of 3 pole mounted transformers, replacement of 2 disconnectors (for secondary

branches)
line, replacement of existing surge arresters with metal-oxide surge arresters (including surge
arresters for secondary substations)
Substitution of 7 km of overhead bare conductors with aerial cables
37

Mitigation Plans Analysis BANAT, MV and LV Network
Asset Type
Asset Name
Very High
25/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK
A20 MINA BOITA-HATEG

DV
Refurbishment of 5 km of the MV line: replacement of damaged insulators, conductors, several

poles and brackets of the line; modernizing of 3 pole mounted substations; replacement of existing
surge arresters and existing grounding installation for 10 pole mounted substations
Very High
26/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 MOLDOVA NOUACOZLA RE
New MV line (40 km) starting CP Cozla in order to supply customers of Bigar and Berzeasca
localities
Very High
27/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 GARNIC-MOLDOVA
NOUA RE
MV grid meshing between the MV line and A20 REPOMPARE-MOLDOVA NOUA RE (3km of
underground cable)
Very High
28/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK A20 LOVRIN-LOVRIN TM
Very High
29/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
High
30/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK A20 CERBU-PONOR RE

line; substitution of 1,5 km of overhead bare conductors with overhead cable
High
31/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK A20 TEBEA-BRAD DV

line (finalizing of the main feeder (45%) and other secondary branches Birtin, Obarsa, Cazanesti),
replacement of existing surge arresters and existing grounding installation for 20 secondary
substations (pole mounted transformers)
High
33/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 URSENI-FRATELIA
TM
Replacement of damaged insulators, conductors, several poles on 5 km of the MV line,

replacement of existing surge arresters
High
34/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK
A20 ZAVOI-I M ORASTIE

DV

line, replacement of existing surge arresters and grounding installation of 12 pole mounted
substations; modernizing of 3 pole mounted substations
High
35/43
DEVA
LV NETWORK LUPENI
High
38/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK
High
40/43
DEVA
MV NETWORK A20 PT 15-LUPENI DV
High
41/43
TIMISOARA
MV NETWORK
A20 CORNEREVACRUSOVAT RE
A20 BUCES-CRISCIOR
DV
A20 BOZOVICICRUSOVAT RE
Replacement of damaged insulators (for 200 poles of the main feeder) and replacement of existing
surge arresters with metal-oxide surge arresters (15 pieces)
line
LV distribution cabinets replacement, relocating the metering units outside customers buildings (for
an easy access) and renewal of 10 km overhead network
Refurbishment of the main feeder (25 km), replacement of existing surge arresters for 15 secondary
substations (pole mounted transformers)
Substitution of 1 km of underground cable
Replacement of damaged insulators, brackets, conductors, several poles of the MV line
38

Banat HV Center Examples of mitigation effects at asset level
SAIDI
(min/customer)
Direct Costs (k)
SAIFI
(num/customer)
TIMISOARA
HV LINES
GROUP 4-R (1)
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
I.U.R.T. LUGOJ
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
FRATELIA 110/20/10 KV
TIMISOARA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
VICTORIA 110/20/10 KV
EV
1)
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
1/27/15
ANINA-PONOR, ORAVITA-MOLDOVA NOUA 1, ORAVITA-MOLDOVA NOUA 2, PONOR-MOLDOVA NOUA, MOLDOVA NOUA-SFANTA ELENA,
COZLA, TOPLET-CRUSOVAT, ARMENIS-POARTA, CFR CARANSEBES-BALTA SARATA, RESITA-ANINA, BALTA SARATA-ARMENIS,
CARANSEBES, RESITA-CIUDANOVITA, RESITA-ORAVITA, CIUDANOVITA-ORAVITA, CRUSOVAT-POARTA, IAZ-CFR CARANSEBES, COZLA-SFANTA ELENA.
VaR 95 VaR 99
1/27/15
39
TOPLETRESITA-CFR

Banat MV and LV Network Examples of mitigation effects at asset level
SAIDI
(min/customer)
Direct Costs (k)
SAIFI
(num/customer)
TIMISOARA
MV LINE
A20 TOPOLOVAT-BUZIAS TM
TIMISOARA
MV LINE
A20 SACU-BALTA SARATA RE
ARAD
MV LINE
A20 MONEASA-SEBIS AR
TIMISOARA
MV LINE
A20 ROMANESTI-FAGET TM
EV
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
1/27/15
VaR 95 VaR 99
1/27/1540

Banat Examples of mitigation effects at Network Area level
SAIDI
(min/customer)
Direct Costs (k)

1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
ARAD
SAIFI
(num/customer)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
DEVA
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
TIMISOARA
EV
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
1/27/15
VaR 95 VaR 99
1/27/1541

Mitigation Plans Analysis DOBROGEA, HV Center
1)
Asset Type
Asset Name
Critical
1/36
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY
TULCEA ORAS 110/20/6
SUBSTATIONS KV
HV section complete renewal, replacement of MV switchgears and protection system, replacement

of TR1 (10 MVA) with a 25 MVA TR, repairs of the MV building
Critical
4/36
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY
ABATOR 110/20/10 KV
SUBSTATIONS
Replacement of HV equipments, replacement of a transformer (TR2), replacement of MV

switchgears and protection system, repairs of the MV switchgears building
Critical
6/36
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY
SUBSTATIONS
HV section and protection system complete renewal
Critical
7/36
CALARASI
PRIMARY
URZICENI 110/20 KV
SUBSTATIONS
Replacement of HV circuit breakers, MV switchgear and HV protection systems
Critical
11/36
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY
HARSOVA 110/20 KV
SUBSTATIONS
HV section complete renewal, replacement of MV switchgears and protection system
Critical
12/36
CALARASI
PRIMARY
OLTENITA SUD 110/20
SUBSTATIONS KV
Installation of HV circuit breakers and current transformers on the Line bays, replacement of MV
switchgears and protections
Very High
13/36
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY
MEDGIDIA-1 110/20/6KV
SUBSTATIONS
HV section complete renewal, replacement of MV switchgears and protection system
Very High
20/36
CALARASI
HV LINES
Repair/ paint of damaged poles, substitution of damaged insulators and conductors, replacement of
the damaged shield wire in PIETROIU-FETESTI and DRAGALINA-CALARASI HV lines
Very High
23/36
CALARASI
PRIMARY
SLOBOZIA NORD 110/20
SUBSTATIONS KV
Group 2-C
(1)
DRAGALINA-CALARASI, PIETROIU-FETESTI, CALARASI-PIETROIU, SLOBOZIA SUD-DRAGALINA
Replacement of MV switchgears and protections, urgent repairs of the MV building (brickwork

displaced, degraded carpentry, water infiltrations)
42

Mitigation Plans Analysis DOBROGEA, HV Center
Asset Type
Asset Name
Very High
24/36
CALARASI
HV LINES
Group 1-S
(1)
Replacement of the stolen overhead earth wire (2 km) and of the stolen components from the poles
in Tamadau Hagiesti
High
25/36
CALARASI
HV LINES
Group 7-C
(2)
Refurbishment of the line: paint of metallic towers, replacement of damaged insulators (80 %) and
conductor, refurbishment of metallic towers grounding, installation of the missing bird diverters
High
26/36
CONSTANTA
HV LINES
Group 7-CT
High
28/36
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY
BAIA 110/20 KV
SUBSTATIONS
Replacement of Voltage Transformers (145 kV) and replacement of MV switchgears
High
31/36
CONSTANTA
HV LINES
Group 10-T
HV line Tulcea Vest Sarinasuf - Revamp of 4 km of the line (10 %): repair of foundations of towers
structures, paint and repair of metallic towers, reestablish conductor sag, replacement 20 damaged
towers and replacement of insulators and damaged conductors
High
32/36
CONSTANTA
HV LINES
Group 24-CT
(5)
Painting of metallic towers structures, repair of concrete poles, mounting of non-conducting

spacers on conductors, repair of damaged foundations of 7 poles (from the crossing of the
Danube - Black Sea Channel) for HV line CET Palas-Eforie Nord
High
33/36
CONSTANTA
HV LINES
Group 12-CT
(6)
Refurbishment of the line: repair of damaged foundations of towers structures, painting of metallic
towers, mounting brackets on towers structures, replacement of damaged insulators and conductor,
mounting of non-conducting spacers on the conductors lines
High
35/36
CONSTANTA
HV LINES
Group 5-CT
1)
2)
3)
TAMADAU HAGIESTI, TAMADAU - HAGIESTI-MOVILITA
4)
5)
SARINASUF-CRISAN, TULCEA VEST-SARINASUF
6)
7)
NICOLAE BALCESCU-GALBIORI, MEDGIDIA NORD-BALCESCU-CUZA VODA
(3)
(4)
(7)
Refurbishment of the line: repair of damaged foundations of towers structures, paint and repair of
metallic towers, replacement of damaged insulators and conductor (40 CIH-COR towers)
Replacement of 3 km of the HV overhead line with underground distribution cable XLPE

insulation (disposing 18 poles), installing fiber- optic communication
OLTENITA NORD-CIORNULEASA, CIORNULEASA-BUDESTI, MOSTISTEA-CIORNULEASA, MOSTISTEA-OLTENITA NORD-BUDESTI

SACELE - MIHAI VITEAZU, ECLUZA OVIDIU-NAVODARI, LUMINA-SITORMAN, CONSTANTA NORD-LUMINA, CONSTANTA NORD- ECLUZA OVIDIU, MEDGIDIA SUD-FACLIAMIRCEA VODA, SITORMAN - MIHAI VITEAZU, SITORMAN-SACELE, NAVODARI ORAS SITORMAN, NAZARCEA-MEDGIDIA 1
MANGALIA NORD - S N MANGALIA, EFORIE NORD COSTINESTI, CET PALAS-EFORIE NORD, COSTINESTI NEPTUN, BASARABI-TATARU, NEPTUN - MANGALIA NORD,
TATARU-PELINU-NEPTUN, NEPTUN - S N MANGALIA
PORT 2-SN CONSTANTA, ABATOR-SNC, CET PALAS-ABATOR, CET PALAS -PETROL SUD, PALAS - PORT 2, PETROL SUD-PORT 2
43

Mitigation Plans Analysis DOBROGEA, MV and LV Network
Asset Type
Asset Name
Critical
2/36
CONSTANTA
MV NETWORK L 20 KV 10202 TL
Substitution of 10 km of overhead bare conductors with pre-insulated cable
Critical
3/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK L 20 KV OLTINA CL
Replacement of damaged poles, insulators, conductors on 10 km of the MV line
Critical
5/36
CONSTANTA
MV NETWORK
LES 20 KV 2725 PT 529

CT
Substitution of 4 km of underground cables
Critical
8/36
CONSTANTA
MV NETWORK
LEA 20 KV 6505 SARAIU

CT
Replacement of damaged insulators, brackets, conductors, poles on 6 km of the MV line
Critical
9/36
CONSTANTA
Replacement of damaged insulators, conductors, poles on 10 km of the MV line
Critical
10/36
CONSTANTA
Substitution of 10 km of overhead bare conductors with pre-insulated cable
Very High
14/36
CONSTANTA
Replacement of damaged insulators, conductors, poles on 15 km of the MV line
Very High
15/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK
Very High
16/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK L 20 KV BUCURESTI CL
Very High
17/36
CONSTANTA
MV grid meshing between L 20 KV 10000 TL and L 20 KV 9305 TL (5 km)
L 20 KV INTEROLTENITA
CL
Replacement of insulators and conductors on 15 km of the MV line
44

Mitigation Plans Analysis DOBROGEA, MV and LV Network
Asset Type
Asset Name
LEA 20 KV 4400 SACELE

CT
Replacement of damaged insulators, brackets, conductors, poles on 5 km of the MV line
Very High
18/36
CONSTANTA
MV NETWORK
Very High
19/36
CONSTANTA
Replacement of damaged insulators, conductors, several poles on 15 km of the MV line
Very High
21/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK L 20 KV CURCANI CL
Very High
22/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK L 20 KV MANASTIREA CL
High
27/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK L 20 KV DUNARICA 1 CL
Substitution/rebuilding of 5 km of overhead bare conductors line with overhead cables (4,8 km) and
underground cables (0,2 km)
High
29/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK L 20 KV MITRENI CL
High
30/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK L 20 KV PIETROIU CL
High
34/36
CALARASI
MV NETWORK
High
36/36
CALARASI
LV NETWORK DRAGALINA
L 20 KV MIHAI VITEAZU
CL
Replacement of damaged conductors, insulators, poles on 10 km of the MV line

Substitution of bare conductors with overhead cables 16 km and installation of 2 pole mounted
substations
45

Dobrogea HV Center Examples of mitigation effects at asset level
SAIDI
(min/customer)
Direct Costs (k)
SAIFI
(num/customer)
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
ABATOR 110/20/10 KV
CONSTANTA
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
CALARASI
PRIMARY SUBSTATION
URZICENI 110/20 KV
EV
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
1/27/15
VaR 95 VaR 99
1/27/1546

Dobrogea MV and LV Network Examples of mitigation effects at asset level
SAIDI
(min/customer)
Direct Costs (k)
SAIFI
(num/customer)
CONSTANTA
MV LINE
L 20 KV 10202 TL
CALARASI
MV LINE
L 20 KV OLTINA CL
CONSTANTA
MV LINE
LES 20 KV 2725 PT 529 CT
CONSTANTA
MV LINE
LEA 20 KV 6505 SARAIU CT
EV
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
1/27/15
VaR 95 VaR 99
1/27/1547

Dobrogea Examples of mitigation effects at Network Area level
SAIDI
(min/customer)
Direct Costs (k)

1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
CALARASI
SAIFI
(num/customer)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/151/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
CONSTANTA
1/27/151/27/15
EV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
VaR 95 VaR 99
EV
1/27/15
VaR 95 VaR 99
1/27/1548
Summary
49

Natural Risk Analysis
CONSIDERED RISK FACTORS
HV LINES, MV LINES, PRIMARY SUBSTATIONS
WEATHER
Wind
Snow
Ice
Hydrogeological
Geotechnical collapse
Landslides
Floods
SEISMIC
TIPICAL IMPACTS FROM H.I.L.P. NATURAL EVENTS
50

Natural Risk Analysis High Voltage Network comparative results
Cumulative restoration time
(days/km)
Direct Costs (k/km)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
(*) 70% of Costa Verde HV Network is actually made of MV structured lines
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
51
1/27/15

Natural Risk Analysis Primary Substations comparative results
(days/MVA)
Direct Costs (k/MVA)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
52
1/27/15

Natural Risk Analysis Medium Voltage Network comparative results
(days/km)
Direct Costs (k/km)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
53
1/27/15

Natural Risk Analysis High Voltage Network results
Direct Costs (M)
Cumulative restoration time (days)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
54

Natural Risk Analysis Primary Substations results
Direct Costs (M)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
55

Natural Risk Analysis Medium Voltage Network results
Direct Costs (M)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
56

Natural Risk Analysis Most vulnerable assets in BANAT
1/27/15
1/27/15
Most vulnerable HV lines

Direct Costs (M)
1/27/15
1/27/15
Most vulnerable Primary Substations

Direct Costs (k)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
57
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15

Natural Risk Analysis Most vulnerable assets in DOBROGEA
1/27/15
1/27/15
Most vulnerable HV lines

Direct Costs (M)
1/27/15
1/27/15
Most vulnerable Primary Substations

Direct Costs (k)
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
58
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
1/27/15
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1/27/15
1/27/15

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Industrial Risk Management

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Industrial Risk

Rome | September 11th, 2014

Industrial Risk Methodological framework

Industrial Risk Assessment BANAT and DOBROGEA

Meteorological, Seismic and Flooding Risk Assessment