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Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in oil and
natural gas production
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil
production from shale and other tight resources
Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through December 2013 and
represent EIAs official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).
Argus Americas Crude Summit
January 22,
U.S. natural gas prices remain well below crude oil prices
energy spot prices
2012 dollars per million Btu
History
Projections
2012
2018
2040
Ratio:
3.2
Oil to gas
price ratio:
3.4
History
Projections
Shale gas
Non-associated onshore
Tight gas
Non-associated offshore
Associated with oil
Coalbed methane
Alaska
Projections
11.0
Electric
power
8.5
11.2
Industrial*
9.1
0.7
2.9
4.2
1.7
Transportation**
3.6
Commercial
4.1
Residential
U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low
natural gas prices, particularly in the near term
manufacturing natural gas consumption
quadrillion Btu
Refining and
related
Bulk chemicals
Food
Iron and steel
Metal based
durables
Paper
Other
manufacturing
Glass
Aluminum
U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with
the largest share in freight trucks
natural gas use by mode
trillion Btu
Freight trucks
22%
Light-duty vehicles
10
History
Projections
2025
2012
25
20
Pipeline exports to Mexico
Pipeline exports to Canada
Lower 48 states LNG exports
Alaska LNG exports
15
10
5
0
-5
LNG imports
-10
-15
11
History
Projections
100
75
Consumption
50
Domestic supply
Net exports
25
-25
12
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S.
output close to historical high
U.S. crude oil production
million barrels per day
History
Projections
2012
Lower 48 offshore
Alaska
Other lower 48 onshore
13
History
Projections
2012
2040
2030
59%
4%
22%
Motor gasoline
44%
47%
5%
5%
Ethanol
30%
Diesel
31%
CNG/LNG
1%
12%
Other*
3%
Jet fuel
3%
13%
13%
3%
4%
14
History
2012
Projections
Distillate exports
Total petroleum product
net exports
Other petroleum
product exports
Other petroleum
product imports
Motor gasoline imports
Distillate imports
15
History
Projections
2012
2005
2016
2040
Consumption
25%
Net imports
60%
40%
32%
Domestic supply
16
History
2012
Projections
2005
17
Shale oil
rank
country
75
China
United States
58
Argentina
802
China
32
Algeria
707
Argentina
27
United States
665
Libya
26
Canada
573
Venezuela
13
Mexico
545
Mexico
13
Australia
437
Pakistan
South Africa
390
Canada
Russia
285
10
Indonesia
10
Brazil
245
rank
country
billion barrels
Russia
World total
345
World total
7,299
Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet.
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI.
Argus Americas Crude Summit
January 22,
18
19
20
NonOPEC
OPEC
21
History
Jan-14
Forecast
Note: Net oil imports are defined as total liquid fuels consumption less domestic production.
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2014
22
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Crude oil
8.5
10.0
10.3
NGLs
2.5
1.8
0.8
Biofuels +
1.0
Refinery gain
1.1
0.1
0.1
Total (mmbl/d)
13.1
11.9
11.2
23
24
25