Canadian Dollar (Daily)

.9780
.9798

Someday I’ll have to do another wave count on the Can$. As it

stands, it’s the most loved foreign currency among speculators and it’s
now getting repelled into a potential double top.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 (90 minute) 5

1
1130
4?

“a”
1113
2

“b”

This market could not take out key support at 1,130. Instead it ricocheted higher from key support.
Until this market can decisively take out 1,130, we’ll have to assume higher prices. This is getting
very difficult because we continue to deal with very “odd shapes.” The waves 1&3 are “corrective”
patterns, thus the continued belief in some sort of “terminal/diagonal” conclusion. The issue for the
bears is that waves 1&3 were very similar in size, so an extended wave-5 is a distinct possibility. I’ll
readily admit, though, that all of the price action is puzzling. If you’ve been a bear, the best strategy
has clearly been to “wait” for a true reversal pattern, something we haven’t seen in several months.
How can you be bearish when we can’t even take out a previous low?
(X)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (Z)
“c”
S&P 500 (180 min.) ~ A “c” Wave Ends? 5
1150
3

Reprinted from 1/16/2010

1
1130
4 ( 1 )?
“a” b alt: 4 of “c”
d
5
1113

2
3

1094
e
1086 “b”
4 a c

1
On the 1/2/10 report we were looking for a completed Elliott Wave up from the 1033. There is now some
good evidence that we have completed a move. This final “c” wave definitely has the look of a “terminal”
pattern in that the various legs higher are “corrective” in nature, not impulsive. The move down from 1150
was the sharpest break we’ve seen since in a few weeks. 1130 and 1113 are clear technical support
points for bulls. If these levels start giving way in a convincing way, then we’ll have to conclude that
2 we’re in the beginning stages of a major market turn.

1033
(X)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 a or w Dollar Index (60 minute)
-c-
(5)
78.45
Yesterday it was suggested that 78.14 was a more likely target given the pace of the bounce. The DXY
is already “knocking on that door.” I can see a case where the Dollar gets some short term resistance
today into this zone.
-b- (c)
-d-
[5]?

[3]?

[4]
[1]

(a)
[2]

-a-

-c-

(b)

76.67
-e-
x

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 a or w Dollar Index (60 minute)
-c-
(5) This morning’s powerful burst suggests even more upside for the DXY. The
78.45
(a)=(c) target is 77.68. The 161.8% of (a)=(c) is 78.14, a more likely target
given the pace of the recent bounce.

-b- -d-

(c)/(3)

(a)/(1)

-a-

-c-

(b)/(2)
Reprinted from 1/19/2010

76.67
-e-
x

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Ten Year Note Futures (Daily)

Sometimes, it’s just easier to do analysis without a count. It’s pretty easy to see that this is
an uptrend channel that has not been broken. So, why bet against it? Key support remains
at 116’27 while the market looks headed for 118’05.

118’05

116’27

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Ten Year Note Futures (Daily)

The 10 Yr. Note took out a nice resistance level last week, which now becomes important
short term support. Despite the fact the longer term picture is bearish, this market is clearly
in an uptrend for now. Bulls seem to be OK as long as they can keep it above 116’27. The
next test for bulls would come at the 118’05 level.

118’05

116’27

Reprinted from 1/19/2010

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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