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Rainfall-Runoff Models
Excess Precipitation or
Runoff Volume Models
May be:
Physically Based
Empirical
Descriptive
Conceptual
Generally Lumped
Etc
May not only estimate excess precipitation
hence, we will refer to them as rainfall-runoff
models..
Necessary for a
single basin
Focus on
Excess
Precipitation
Excess Precip.
Model
Excess Precip.
Excess Precip.
Basin Routing
UHG Methods
Runoff
Hydrograph
Runoff
Hydrograph
Stream and/or
Reservoir
Routing
Downstream
Hydrograph
Goal of Rainfall-Runoff
Models
Interception...........
First, the falling precipitation may
be intercepted by the vegetation in an
area.
It is typically either distributed as
runoff or evaporated back to the
atmosphere.
The leafy matter may also be a form
of interception.
Very thick ground litter layers can hold as much as 0.5 inches!
Interceptionthe point
Infiltration...........
Precipitation reaching the ground may
infiltrate.
This is the process of moving from the
atmosphere into the soil.
Infiltration may be regarded as either a
rate or a total. For example: the soil can
infiltrate 1.2 inches/hour. Alternatively, we
could say the soil has a total infiltration
capacity of 3 inches.
Note that in both cases the units are
Length or length per time!
Infiltration, cont...........
Infiltration is nearly impossible to measure
directly - as we would disturb the sample in
doing so.
We can infer infiltration in a variety of
ways (to be discussed at a later point).
The exact point at which the atmosphere
ends and the soil beings is very difficult to
define and generally we are not concerned
with this fine detail!
In other words, we mostly want to know
how much of the precipitation actually
enters the soil.
Percolation.....
Once the water infiltrates into the ground, the
downward movement of water through the soil
profile may begin.
Percolation.....
The percolating water may move as
a saturated front - under the
influence of gravity
Percolation.....
Or, it may move as unsaturated
flow mostly due to capillary
forces.
Percolation.the point
The vertical percolation of the water into
various levels or zones allows for storage
in the subsurface these zones will be
very important in the SAC-SMA model.
This stored subsurface water is held and
released as either evaporation,
transpiration, or as streamflow eventually
reaching the watershed outlet.
Evaporation....
Is the movement of water from the liquid state
to the vapor state - allowing transport to the
atmosphere.
Occurs from any wet surface or open body of
water.
Soil can have water evaporate from within, as
can leafy matter, living leaves and plants, etc..
The water evaporates from a storage location....
Transpiration....
The process of water moving from the soil via
the plants internal moisture supply system.
This is a type of evaporative process.
The water moves through the stomates, tiny
openings in the leaves (mostly on the
underside), that allow the passage of oxygen,
carbon dioxide, water vapor, and other gases.
Evapotranspiration....
The terms transpiration and evaporation are
often combined in the form :
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
Storage....
Storage occurs at several locations in the
hydrologic cycle and varies in both space and
time - spatially and temporally.
Water can be stored in:
The unsaturated portion of the soil
The saturated portion (below the water table)
On the soil or surface - snow/snowpack,
puddles, ponds, lakes, wetlands.
Rivers and stream channels - even though
they are generally in motion!
Storage....
Water in storage can still be involved in a
process.
i.e. :
Water in a puddle may be evaporating.....
Storm Flow
Base Flow
RO
=
Surface
runoff
yes
Depression
Storage
Is I > f?
Channel
Storage
no
Channel
runoff
Surface
runoff
Is
retention
full?
no
yes
Detention
Storage
Ground Water
Storage
Retention
Storage
Vegetation
Storage
Storage....
Storm Flow
Base Flow
RO
=
Surface
runoff
yes
Depression
Storage
Is I > f?
Channel
Storage
no
Channel
runoff
Surface
runoff
Is
retention
full?
no
yes
Detention
Storage
Ground Water
Storage
Retention
Storage
Vegetation
Storage
Storage....
Things to consider:
We looked at these as independent processes!
We looked at the processes as discrete time
steps!
What were the initial conditions before the
storm? What effects would initial conditions
have?
These are the issues that a continuous
rainfall-runoff model must consider
The Units
The
The Rainfall-Runoff
Modeling Process
Initial Abstractions
Initial Abstraction - It is generally
assumed that the initial abstractions must
be satisfied before any direct storm
runoff may begin. The initial abstraction
is often thought of as a lumped sum
(depth). Viessman (1968) found that 0.1
inches was reasonable for small urban
watersheds.
Equation
SCS Curve
Number
SAC-SMA
Hydrograph Breakdown
700.0000
600.0000
500.0000
Surface
Response
400.0000
300.0000
200.0000
100.0000
0.0000
Baseflow
Hydrograph Breakdown
700.0000
Total
Hydrograph
600.0000
500.0000
Surface
Response
400.0000
300.0000
Baseflow
200.0000
100.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.5000
1.0000
1.5000
2.0000
2.5000
3.0000
3.5000
4.0000
Derive phi-index
sample watershed = 450 mi2
25000
0.8
0.7
20000
0.5
Flow (cfs)
15000
0.4
10000
0.3
0.2
5000
0.1
Time (hrs.)
Precipitation (inches)
0.6
Separation of Baseflow
... generally accepted that the inflection point on the
recession limb of a hydrograph is the result of a
change in the controlling physical processes of the
excess precipitation flowing to the basin outlet.
In this example, baseflow is considered to be a
straight line connecting that point at which the
hydrograph begins to rise rapidly and the inflection
point on the recession side of the hydrograph.
the inflection point may be found by plotting the
hydrograph in semi-log fashion with flow being plotted
on the log scale and noting the time at which the
recession side fits a straight line.
Semi-log Plot
100000
10000
Flow (cfs)
1000
100
10
Time (hrs.)
20000
Flow (cfs)
15000
10000
5000
Time (hrs.)
133
126
119
112
105
98
91
84
77
70
63
56
49
42
35
28
21
14
Separate Baseflow
25000
20000
Flow (cfs)
15000
10000
5000
Time (hrs.)
Sample Calculations
Summing Flows
Continuous process
represented with
discrete time steps
1.65 inches of
excess
precipitation
0.7
Precipitation (inches)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Time (hrs.)
Phi-Index Summary
The phi-index for this storm was 0.2
inches per hour.
This is a uniform loss rate.
If the precipitation stops for a time period,
the infiltration will still be 0.2 inches per
hour when the precipitation starts again.
Regardless of this weakness, this is still
very powerful information to have
regarding the response of a watershed.
f f (f f )e kt
i c
o c
fo
fi = infiltration capacity at time, t
fc = final infiltration capacity
fo = initial infiltration capacity
fc
Horton
Effect of fo or fc
Horton
Effect of K
Horton
Assumes that precipitation supply is
greater than infiltration rate.
2
1
0
Horton
There are now 2 parameters to
estimate or calibrate for a watershed!!
fo & k
Again,
SCS (NRCS)
Runoff Curve Number
S P
Modifications
Pe = P - I a
More Modifications
Estimating S
S=
1000
- 10
CN
Determine CN
Fallow
Straight row
Row Crops
Straight row
Straight row
Contoured
----
77
86
91
94
Poor
Good
Poor
72
67
70
81
78
79
88
85
84
91
89
88
Initial Conditions
5-day antecedent rainfall, inches
Antecedent moisture
Dormant Season
Growing Season
II
0.5 to 1.1
1.4 to 2.1
III
Over 1.1
Over 2.1
Adjust CNs
CN for AMC II
Corresponding CNs
AMC I
AMC III
100
100
100
95
87
98
90
78
96
85
70
94
80
63
91
75
57
88
70
51
85
65
45
82
60
40
78
55
35
74
50
31
70
Sample Application
The curve number is assumed to be 70.
The cumulative runoff (c) is calculated from the
cumulative precipitation (b), using equation (4).
The potential maximum storage, S, is calculated to be S =
(1000/70) - 10 = 4.286 inches.
Using 20% as the initial abstraction percentage yields 0.2 x
4.286 = 0.8572 inches and will require that at least 0.8572
inches of precipitation must accrue before runoff may
begin.
Computations
Problems
SAC-SMA
Precipitation Input
Px
Impervious
Area
ET
PCTIM
Pervious Area
Upper Zone
EXCESS
ET
Direct Runoff
ADIMP
Impervious Area
Tension Water
Surface
Runoff
Free Water
UZTW
UZFW
UZK
ET
Interflow
Percolation
Zperc. Rexp
Total Channel
Inflow
RIVA
ET
1-PFREE
Distribution
Function
Streamflow
PFREE
Lower Zone
ET
Tension Water
LZTW
Free
P
Water
S
LZFP
LZFS
LZSK
Supplemental
Base flow
RSERV
LZPK
Primary
Baseflow
Total
Baseflow
Side
Subsurface
Discharge
Hydrograph Decomposition
Impervious and
Direct Runoff
Surface Runoff
Discharge
Interflow
Supplemental Baseflow
Primary Baseflow
Time
Impervious
Surface Runoff
Evaporation
Upper
Zone
Lower
Interflow
Supplemental Baseflow
Zone
Primary Baseflow
2
recession rate Kr = Q
Q1
1/ t
LZPK = 1.0 - Kr
Things to consider
LZPK)
months
1/ t
recession rate Kr = Q 2
Q1
LZSK = 1.0 - Kr
Things to consider
(continued)
Use a number of events, take average of ones with the smallest PCTIM
Be aware of approximate magnitude of ET-demand
Derive in conjunction with UZTWM
Methods
Extension of recession
Examination of semi-log plot (Search through semi-log plot and try to approximate
the highest level of primary baseflow runoff that occurs. This is Qx.)
LZFPM = Qx/LZPK
Things to consider
This is a minimal estimate because LZFPC probably never equals LZFPM. Fills to 60 to 90+
percent capacity. Lowest percentage usually associated with most permeable soils.
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
YEAR AVG
Daily rms error
(cmsd)
Simulated
mean (cmsd)
2.058
1.521
4.763
1.501
5.416
4.021
0.485
0.411
1.184
11.926
12.941
5.769
4.32
2.883
1.853
3.906
0.78
3.672
2.856
0.57
0.445
0.804
10.463
18.146
5.371
4.307
Percent
bias
-28.61
-17.92
21.95
92.34
47.51
40.8
-14.95
-7.64
47.27
13.98
-28.68
7.41
0.29
Monthly bias
(SIM-OBS)
(mm)
-0.782
-0.305
0.812
0.683
1.493
1.104
-0.078
-0.032
0.349
1.386
-4.932
0.365
0.063
Daily average
abs error (cmsd)
2.626
1.494
7.962
Flow interval
.00 - 1.05
1.05 - 3.27
3.27 - 10.47
10.47 - 32.71
32.71 - 104.68
104.68 - 327.14
327.14 and above
Maximum error
(SIM-OBS)
(cmsd)
-86.957
-30.655
-122.272
26.376
85.814
55.495
2.349
1.431
-25.129
88.298
-59.106
-72.167
-122.272
Monthly volume
rms error (mm)
2.757
Number
of cases
Simulated
mean (cmsd)
Observed
mean (cmsd)
Percent bias
1769
306
281
182
75
4
No Cases
0.715
3.989
7.971
17.549
39.368
108.221
0.541
1.889
5.953
18.621
52.609
182.5
32.23
111.12
33.91
-5.76
-25.17
-40.7
Percent
average
absolute error
44.09
45.6
69.81
118.49
75.87
51.71
28.32
31.11
101.07
69.64
48.29
82.52
60.97
Correlation
Coefficient
daily flows
0.7801
Max monthly
volume error
(mm)
-4.315
-1.564
7.349
3.162
4.519
6.953
-0.238
-0.228
2.303
7.116
-10.723
-6.814
-10.723
Percent avg
abs monthly
vol error
34.72
19.33
49.21
99.92
48.36
42.72
18.76
21.25
70.03
29.62
28.68
59.86
37.28
Bias
(sim-obs) (mm)
0.0053
0.0642
0.0617
-0.0328
-0.4048
-2.2705
Percent
daily
rms error
238.04
138.3
254.32
433.66
271.45
210.83
59.54
44.53
349.7
128.66
73.02
184.48
184.85
Maximum
error (cmsd)
18.388
48.455
85.814
88.298
-72.167
-122.272
Percent
avg abs error
61.3
152.89
85.97
58.77
42.46
40.7
Percent
rms error
169.65
356.34
164.95
80.97
51.8
44.5
Percent monthly
vol rms vol
RMS error
64.47
34.1
80.93
183.88
76.41
97.84
23.87
28.06
123.04
39.7
33.49
79.77
68.78
December
July
October
February
September
August
July
March
August
December
July
September
July
February
February
August
July
September
August
August
September
February
December
July
July
Day
Year
Observed
Simulated
Error
(sim-obs)
Percent error
Percent total
sq deviation
16
9
29
13
3
2
10
3
18
31
29
12
28
11
15
4
19
6
24
12
13
14
15
16
22
1967
1968
1971
1968
1965
1968
1968
1968
1966
1965
1971
1969
1971
1968
1968
1967
1968
1970
1967
1966
1969
1968
1967
1968
1971
235
31.2
212
7.15
89.4
100
36.9
48.5
75.2
2.4
57.9
7.5
54.4
1.92
148
13
58.6
8.65
45.7
43.2
10.2
135
21.9
50.7
58.8
112.728
119.498
125.043
92.964
17.233
40.894
94.346
103.995
23.887
50.855
9.707
55.563
6.91
49.141
101.437
57.378
14.454
51.856
2.933
85.601
51.597
93.678
62.726
10.025
19.387
-122.272
88.298
-86.957
85.814
-72.167
-59.106
57.446
55.495
-51.313
48.455
-48.193
48.063
-47.49
47.221
-46.563
44.378
-44.146
43.206
-42.767
42.401
41.397
-41.322
40.826
-40.675
-39.413
-52.03
283.01
-41.02
1200.2
-80.72
-59.11
155.68
114.42
-68.24
2018.95
-83.23
640.83
-87.3
2459.42
-31.46
341.37
-75.33
499.49
-93.58
98.15
405.85
-30.61
186.42
-80.23
-67.03
9.01
4.7
4.56
4.44
3.14
2.11
1.99
1.86
1.59
1.42
1.4
1.39
1.36
1.34
1.31
1.19
1.17
1.13
1.1
1.08
1.03
1.03
1
1
0.94
Percent
reduction of
daily rms if
error equal
zero
4.61
2.38
2.31
2.24
1.58
1.06
1
0.93
0.8
0.71
0.7
0.7
0.68
0.67
0.66
0.6
0.59
0.56
0.55
0.54
0.52
0.52
0.5
0.5
0.47
Year
Observed
Simulated
Error
(sim-obs)
August
August
December
July
March
September
September
July
August
July
February
October
1966
1971
1965
1969
1968
1965
1970
1971
1970
1967
1968
1971
33.065
19.947
6.42
2.814
16.044
10.579
5.504
10.31
14.02
10.182
15.468
13.153
22.342
12.537
13.769
9.93
22.997
3.764
11.959
4.882
8.596
15.148
19.987
8.838
-10.723
-7.41
7.349
7.116
6.953
-6.814
6.455
-5.427
-5.424
4.966
4.519
-4.315
Percent error
-32.43
-37.15
114.48
252.9
43.34
-64.42
117.29
-52.64
-38.69
48.78
29.21
-32.81
Percent total sq
deviation
17.6
8.4
8.27
7.75
7.4
7.11
6.38
4.51
4.5
3.78
3.13
2.85
Percent reduction of
monthly rms if error
equal zero
9.23
4.29
4.22
3.95
3.77
3.62
3.24
2.28
2.28
1.91
1.57
1.44
END
Rainfall-Runoff Models