Load forecasting

Objective
Electric power generation,
transmission, distribution,
security
Increase or decrease output
of generators
Interchange power with
neighboring systems
Prevent overloading and
reduce occurrences of
equipment failures
Electric power market
Price settings
Schedule spinning reserve
allocation properly

 Load forecasts form the basis for

development of strategic system plans.
Accurate load forecasting is critical since the
future load characteristics determine the
location, size, and timing of future facilities.
Load forecasting is one of the central
functions in power system operation
Need for accurate Power Demand Forecast
began during the Industrial revolution
Power Demand forecasting came into
prominence during the Energy Crisis in the
1970s

IMPORTANCE OF LOAD FORECASTING

Unit commitment
Maintenance scheduling
Economic operation of power plants
Fuel purchase
Allocation of spinning reserve

 Load Forecasting Categories

Short-term load forecasting
One hour ~ One week
Control and schedule power system in everyday
operations

Medium-term and Long-term load forecasting

One week ~ longer than one year
Determine capacity of generation, transmission,
distribution systems, type of facilities required in
transmission expansion planning, development of
power system infrastructure, etc.

FACTORS AFFECTING LOAD

Meteorological conditions
Economic and Demographic
factors
Time factors
Random factors

 Load Forecasting Methods

Parametric methods
Regression method
Time series
Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)
Spectral expansion technique (Fourier Series)
State equations

Artificial intelligence methods

Artificial neural networks
Feedforward network
Recurrent network

Fuzzy logic
Expert systems

Types of Forecasting
Loa d F oreca sts

S h o rt te rm fo re c a s ts
(o n e h o u r to a w e e k )

M e d iu m fo re c a s ts
(a m o n th u p to a y e a r)

L o n g te rm fo re c a s ts
(o ve r o n e y e a r)

Factors for accurate

forecasts

Weather influence

Time factors

Customer classes

Weather Influence
Electric load has an obvious correlation to
weather. The most important variables
responsible in load changes are:
Dry and wet bulb temperature
Dew point
Humidity
Wind Speed / Wind Direction
Sky Cover
Sunshine

Customer Class
Electric utilities usually serve
different
types of customers such as
residential,
commercial, and industrial. The
following
graphs show the load behavior in the
above classes by showing the
amount of

 Forecasting Procedure
Data Source
T.N.E.B
Historical Data
Load load for the year 2002
Temperature weighted average hourly temperature of 8
stations in the GRID area

Pattern
Weekday pattern (Mon ~ Fri) and Weekend pattern (Sat,
Sun)

Next Day Forecasting

Previous loads and temperatures in the length of four weeks

 For short-term load forecasting several factors

should be considered,such as time factors,
weather data, and possible customers classes.
The medium- and long-term forecasts take into
account the historical load and weather data,
the number of customers in different categories,
the
appliances in the area and their characteristics
including age, the economicand demographic
data and their forecasts, the appliance sales
data, and other factors

The time factors include the time of the year, the day of the week,and the
hour of the day.
There are important differences in load between
weekdays and weekends. The load on different weekdays also can behave
differently. For example, Mondays and Fridays being adjacent to weekends,
may have structurally different loads than Tuesday through
Thursday. This is particularly true during the summer time. Holidays are more
difficult to forecast than non-holidays because of tSheir relative infrequent
occurrence

 Weather conditions influence the

load. In fact, forecasted weather
parameters are the most important
factors in short-term load forecasts.
Various weather variables could be
considered for load forecasting.
Temperature and humidity are the
most commonly used load predictors