IRI Uganda Survey Public Presentation FINAL

Public Opinion Survey
of Ugandans
December 4-23, 2014
International Republican Institute
Detailed Methodology
The International Republican Institute (IRI) carried out a survey of Ugandan citizens aged 18 years and older.
The questionnaire was designed by Professor Robert Mattes of the University of Cape Town, in consultation
with IRI, Ugandas political parties and civil society stakeholders. Sample design, interview training and
fieldwork was carried out by Hatchile Consult, a social research firm, in consultation with IRI and Professor
Mattes.
Face-to-face interviews were carried out with 2,402 respondents between December 423, 2014.
The margin of error for the entire study is plus or minus two percentage points.
In Stage 1, IRI stratified all Enumerator Areas (EU) from the most recent Uganda census by sub-region and
rural-urban status. IRI then randomly selected 300 EUs with the probability proportionate to the population
size of each stratum.
In Stage 2, interviewers followed random walk patterns within the selected EU to identify eight households.
Within each household (Stage 3), all members of the household aged 18 years and older were listed and one
was randomly selected to participate in the survey. Interviews at each household alternated between men
and women. One respondent from each household was selected by creating a numbered list of adults in that
household and a number was randomly drawn.
All interviewers were conducted in the language of the respondents choice.
In total 3,039 houses were visited to obtain 2,402 interviews. Thus, the response rate for this survey was 79
percent.
The survey was funded by the United States Agency for International Development.
Charts and graphs may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
Country Headed in
Right Direction
Since the last national election in 2011, would you say that each of the
following have gotten better, stayed the same or become worse?
100%
2%
5%
1%
7%
80%
21%
6%
5%
25%
22%
60%
21%
21%
22%
46%
43%
40%
6%
5%
6%
2%
8%
31%
19%
40%
20%
0%
Much Better
Better
Same
Worse
Much Worse
37%
4%
Dont Know
4
Looking ahead, do you expect the following to be better or worse in

12 months time?
100%
90%
80%
10%
6%
14%
70%
60%
14%
12%
6%
7%
18%
19%
19%
19%
15%
8%
20%
21%
50%
18%
40%
30%
42%
20%
38%
38%
33%
6%
5%
6%
National Economy
Political Situation
10%
0%
7%
Own Living Conditions Uganda Overall

Much Better
Better
Same
Worse
Much Worse
Dont Know
5
What about the overall direction of the country? Do you feel Uganda is
going in the right direction or going in the wrong direction?
Right Direction
Don't know
Wrong Direction
0%
0.69
10%
20%
30%
Right Direction
40%
3%
50%
Dont Know
60%
70%
0.29
80%
90%
100%
Wrong Direction
6
In your opinion, who do you think is responsible for the overall direction
in which the country is going?
President Museveni
80%
Government
67%
People of Uganda
45%
National Resistance Movement
20%
Military
7%
Int'l Donors / Int'l Financial Institutions
6%
Churches
5%
Big Business
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
7
How well or badly would you say the national government has been
handling:
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5%
17%
5%
23%
26%
27%
44%
37%
7%
8%
Very Well
Well
Badly
3%
5%
32%
35%
33%
30%
29%
4%
26%
4%
Very Badly
Dont Know
8
handling:
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1%
15%
1%
21%
1%
22%
2%
15%
22%
20%
21%
24%
48%
42%
45%
47%
13%
17%
12%
11%
Dont Know
Very Badly
Badly
3%
31%
22%
Well
33%
11%
Very Well
9
handling:
100%
2%
90%
16%
5%
80%
70%
21%
49%
60%
50%
40%
43%
20%
30%
20%
10%
0%
20%
19%
5%
Reducing Crime
Very Well
Well
Fighting Corruption in Gov't

Badly
Very Badly
Dont Know
10
With regard to government hospitals and health clinics, please tell me

whether you think the following matters have gotten better, stayed the
same or become worse since the 2011 elections?
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2%
8%
21%
25%
4%
8%
21%
1%
11%
15%
24%
37%
2%
16%
2%
17%
29%
30%
18%
21%
27%
4%
41%
38%
32%
31%
4%
5%
6%
4%
Much Better
Better
Same
Worse
Much Worse
Dont Know
11
The National Resistance Movement made a series of campaign promises

before the 2011 elections. Do you think that it was able to deliver on
all, most, a few or none of these promises?
All
2%
Most
18%
Few
58%
None
Don't Know
0%
15%
6%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
12
Which of the following statements comes closest to how you feel about
the National Resistance Movements 2011 campaign promises?
Committed to Promises,
Delivered on Them
Committed to Promises,
but Failed to Deliver
Never was Committed,
No Intention to Deliver
Don't Know
12%
57%
24%
7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

13
Now lets speak about the performance of various parts of the

government of Uganda. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the
following people have performed their jobs over the past 12 months, or
havent you heard enough about them to say?
100%
90%
80%
4%
6%
7%
8%
12%
17%
14%
30%
26%
8%
70%
26%
60%
50%
47%
20%
40%
38%
44%
11%
8%
8%
Elected MP
Elected Councilor
Mayor
30%
20%
10%
0%
33%
30%
President Museveni
Strongly Approve
Strongly Disapprove
Approve
Dont Know / Haven't Heard
Disapprove
14
In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing the
country that government should address? (Open-Ended)
Unemployment
Infrastructure / Roads
Water Supply
Poverty / Destitution
Education
Availability of Health Care
Corruption
Health
Farming / Agriculture
Taxes
Electricity
Crime and Security
Transportation
Overall Wages, Incomes and Salaries
Food Shortage / Famine
Sickness / Disease
Democracy / Political Rights
Drought
Loans / Credit
Discrimination / Inequality
Land
Orphans / Street Children / Homeless Children
Services (Other)
Political Instability / Political Divisions / Ethnic Tensions
HIV/AIDS
Communications
Gender Issues / Womens Rights
Housing
Civil War
Political Violence
War
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0.3%
0%
8%
8%
8%
13%
11%
11%
10%
26%
26%
25%
24%
24%
21%
20%
29%
30%
40%
15
In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing the
country that government should address? (Open-Ended)
MACRO ECONOMICS
Unemployment
Taxes
Overall Wages, Incomes and Salaries
Loans / Credit
HEALTH
Health
Sickness / Disease
HIV/AIDS
SERVICES
Water Supply
Electricity
Services (Other)
TRANSPORTATION
Transportation
POVERTY
Food Shortage / Famine
Orphans / Street Children / Homeless Children
EDUCATION
Education
CORRUPTION
Corruption
AGRICULTURE
Drought
Land
CRIME
Crime and Security
0%
1%
11%
6%
3%
29%
24%
13%
4%
26%
8%
2%
26%
8%
2%
3%
3%
25%
5%
11%
21%
24%
8%
10%
20%
30%
40%
16
Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, how well or badly
would you say government has handled that issue since the 2011 elections?
Very Well
2%
Fairly Well
32%
Fairly Badly
34%
Very Badly
Don't Know
0%
29%
2%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
17
Thinking of the most important problem just identified, how well or badly
would you say government has handled that issue since the 2011 elections?
46%
Health
51%
42%
58%
39%
62%
Water Supply
38%
62%
1.1%
2%
Education
35%
65%
0.5%
34%
65%
0.4%
34%
64%
1%
Management of Economy
34%
64%
2%
Corruption
28%
72%
0.5%
Unemployment
27%
73%
0.3%
Rates / Taxes
21%
0%
Well / Very Well
78%
20%
40%
Badly / Very Badly
60%
1%
80%
100%
Dont Know
18
Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, could any
other political party have done a better job than the National Resistance
Movement in handling this issue?
Yes
17%
No
60%
Dont know
-10%
0%
21%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
19
Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, could any
other political party have done a better job than the National Resistance
Movement in handling this issue? IF YES: Which political party is that?
Forum for Democratic Change
12%
Uganda People's Congress
3%
Democratic Party
2%
Conservative Party 0.1%
Other 1%
0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
20
Committed to Multi-Party Elections

but Skeptical of Process
Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for choosing the country's leaders.
We should choose our leaders in Uganda through regular, open and honest elections.
It doesn't make any difference who is in power, things just go on the same way.
It makes a big diference who is in power. The right people can change things for the better.
No matter who people vote for, it won't make any difference to what happens in this country.
Who people vote for can make a big difference to what happens in this country.
15%
0.82
17%
0.79
22%
0.74
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2

22
Lets talk for a moment about the kind of political system you would like
to have in this country.
I vote on the basis of the individual merits of a man or woman. The party they belong to is of secondary interest.
I vote for a candidate who belongs to the political party that advances ideas I support.
Opposition parties should concentrate on cooperating with government and helping it develop the country.
Oppositon parties should regularly examine and criticize government policies and actions.
The country's opposition parties are personal platforms for disgruntled politicians who have left the NRM.
The country's opposition parties represent real causes and interests.
33%
38%
Political parties create division and confusion. It is therefore necessary to have many political parties in Uganda.
35%
Many political parties are needed to make sure that Ugandans have a real choice in who governs them.
35%
0%
65%
56%
53%
63%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

23
On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last
national elections, held in 2011?
Completely Free and Fair
41%
Free and Fair, with Minor Problems
Free and Fair, but with Major Problems
Not Free or Fair
Don't Know
25%
11%
10%
12%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
24
During the 2011 election, did you / were you:

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
96%
88%
98%
96%
61%
39%
12%
Yes
4%
4%
2%
No / Dont Know
25
Do you expect the upcoming 2016 elections to be:
Completely Free and Fair?
34%
Free and Fair, with Minor Problems?
Free and Fair, but with Major Problems?
Not Free or Fair?
Don't Know
16%
13%
9%
26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
26
How free will you be to choose who to vote for without feeling
pressured?
Not at All Free
4%
Not Very Free
5%
Somewhat Free
21%
Completely Free
Don't Know
0%
62%
7%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
27
Thinking about politics today in Uganda, how often do people have to be

careful of what they say about politics?
Always
36%
Often
18%
Rarely
18%
Never
Don't Know
0%
20%
6%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
28
How much do you personally fear becoming a victim of political

intimidation or violence?
A Lot
32%
Somewhat
17%
A Little Bit
14%
Not at all
Don't Know
0%
32%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
29
How likely do you think it is that:

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
61%
56%
50%
46%
40%
30%
20%
32%
22%
26%
17%
18%
22%
10%
0%
Powerful people can find out how you voted, even though there is supposed to be a secret ballot in this country?
Very/Somewhat
Not Very/Not At All
Dont Know
30
Do you think each of the following groups of people support the same
political party as you, support another political party, or is their support
divided among several different parties, or dont you know enough
about their views to say?
100%
90%
11%
9%
37%
43%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
22%
17%
Neighbors
Co-Workers
Same Party
Divided
Dont Know
Different Party
31
To what extent do you think people in your area will suffer negative
consequences if they vote for the party of their choice?
A Great Deal
11%
Somewhat
15%
A Little
17%
Not at All
34%
Don't Know
0%
24%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
32
Would the presence of armed security personnel (army or police) at

polling places make you feel more secure, make no difference or make
you feel less secure?
Much More Secure
44%
More Secure
24%
Make No Difference
9%
Less Secure
10%
Much Less Secure
10%
Don't Know
0%
2%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
33
Would the presence of observers from other countries make things

better, make no difference or make things worse?
Much Better
30%
Better
33%
Make No Difference
Worse
Much Worse
Don't Know
0%
22%
4%
3%
9%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
34
Support Term Limits and

Election Commission Overhaul
to have in this country. Which of the following statements is closest to
your view?
No one should be allowed to stand for president if they are older than 75 years of age.
There should be no constitutional limits on the age of the president.
The Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum two terms in office.
There should be no constitutional limits on how long the president can service.
66%
30%
65%
30%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


36
How much do you trust each of the following, or havent you heard
enough about them to say?
100%
1%
3%
90%
7%
80%
20%
70%
60%
9%
5%
11%
3%
8%
2%
7%
4%
8%
15%
14%
25%
19%
18%
23%
28%
23%
30%
20%
26%
70%
57%
51%
28%
49%
23%
10%
14%
25%
23%
21%
24%
25%
50%
40%
12%
20%
21%
20%
24%
15%
0%
A Lot
Not At All
Somewhat
Dont Know / Haven't Heard
Just A Little
37
Which of these statements is closest to your opinion?

The composition of the Electoral Commission:
Needs to Be Changed so That It Is Independent of All Political Parties
45%
Needs to Be Changed so It Has a Broader Representation of All the Country's Political Parties
25%
Is Fine as It Currently Is
23%
Don't Know
7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

38
Which of the following statements about our

political system is closest to your view?
64%
Since the president is also a political contestant, he should not appoint members to the Electoral Commission who is the referee of the electoral process and the Constitution should be changed accordingly.
Don't Know / Agree With Neither 7%
As head of state, the president should continue to appoint members to the Election Commission as provided for in the Constitution.
23%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Agree / Strongly Agree
39
Likely Voter Participation

2016 Elections
In the next elections, in 2016, will people be able to register using the
same documents as before, or do they need to get the new National ID
card in order to register, or havent you had a chance to hear about this
yet?
Need New National ID Card
65%
Can Register with Old Documentation
16%
Don't Know / Haven't Had a Chance to Hear
19%
10%
0%
30%
20%
50%
40%
70%
60%
90%
80%
100%
41
I know its a long way off, but what are the chances of your voting in the
national elections for president and parliament in 2016? How likely, if at
all are you to vote in the next elections?
Very Likely
60%
Somewhat Likely
20%
Somewhat Unlikely
4%
Very Unlikely
4%
Refused to Answer 1%
Dont Know
0%
4%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
42
Free and Fair Elections Campaign
Have you heard of the Free and Fair Elections campaign, or havent you
had a chance to find out about this yet?
Yes
54%
No
Don't Know / Haven't Had Chance
36%
11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
44
Do you think that the Free and Fair Elections Campaign represents the
interests of government, of opposition parties, or of ordinary citizens, or
havent you heard enough about it to say?
Ordinary Citizens
Oppositon Parties
Government
Don't Know / Haven't Had Chance
42%
9%
24%
26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
45
Electoral Reform
your view?
Municipal mayors should be directly elected by the voters in that town/village/city.
Mayors should be appointed by the national government.
The vice president should be directly elected by the voters and serve for the same term of office as the president.
The vice president should be appointed by the president and serve as long as the president has confidence in him/her.
74%
16%
45%
52%
There should be no parliamentary seats reserved for specific sectors or special interest groups.
Since some groups are so important, like the Army, women, youth and people with disabilities, we should set aside a certain number of seats for representatives of those groups.
19%
75%
10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2 Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1
47
your view?
I would rather have an electoral system where political parties received seats in the national parliament in direct proportion to the number of votes it wins.
I prefer to keep the present system where we vote for a candidate.
I would rather have an electoral system where we vote for a political party for parliament, rather than for individual candidates.
I prefer to keep the present system where we vote for individual candidates for parliament.
23%
67%
29%
64%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

48
Money and Politics
It takes a great deal of money and skilled people to run an effective

political party organization and conduct election campaigns. Who
should be primarily responsible to provide the funds for parties to carry
out these activities?
Government, Out of Taxpayer Funds
35%
Party Members
37%
Foreign Organizations
9%
Foreign Governments
Refused to Answer
Don't Know
7%
2%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
50
Which of the following statements about our

political system is closest to your view?
There should be legal limits on how much money any individual or business can donate to a candidate or a political party.
34%
Since people are free to decide what to do with their money, people should be able to give as much money as they want to a political party or candidate.
0.53
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

51
For each of the following please indicate whether you think the act is
not wrong at all, wrong but understandable or wrong and punishable?
100%
90%
80%
70%
2%
11%
7%
17%
23%
60%
50%
40%
30%
73%
63%
20%
10%
0%
A candidate gives money or goods to a vote in exchange for his or her vote.
Wrong and Punishable
Wrong But Understandable
Not Wrong At All
Dont Know
52
Roles and Expectations of Elected Representatives
Members of Parliament have different responsibilities. Which of the

following do you think is the most important responsibility of your
Member of Parliament?
Listen to Constituents and Represent their Needs
64%
Deliver Jobs or Development to the Constituency
11%
Help Constituents with their Personal Problems
7%
Make Laws for the Good of the Country

Monitor the President and his Government
11%
3%
None of These 0%
Don't Know
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

54
Elected local government councilors have different responsibilities.

Which of the following do you think is the most important responsibility
of your elected local government councilor?
Listen to Constituents and Represent their Needs
54%
Deliver Jobs or Development to the Sub-County
18%
Help Constituents with their Personal Problems

Make Laws for the Good of the Sub-County
15%
4%
Monitor the Mayor and his Sub-County Government
2%
None of These
2%
Don't Know
0%
5%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

55
Gender, Youth and Politics
your view?
Women should have the same chance of being elected to political office as men.
71%
Men make better political leaders than women, and should be elected rather than women.
25%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Strongly Agree / Agree with Statement 2
Strongly Agree / Agree with Statement 1

57
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?: Women are

equally represented in the political decision-making positions in Uganda.
37%
Strongly Agree
34%
Agree
13%
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
9%
7%
Dont Know
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
58
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections for a woman
candidate?
8%
Very Likely
Somwhat Likely
5%
25%
Somewhat Unlikely
58%
Very Unlikely
4%
Dont Know
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
59
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections for a candidate
younger than 30?
26%
Very Likely
16%
Somwhat Likely
24%
Somewhat Unlikely
28%
Very Unlikely
5%
Dont Know
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
60
Demographics
How interested would you say you are in public affairs?
Very Interested
37%
Somewhat Interested
31%
Not Very Interested
19%
Not at All Interested
Don't Know
0%
11%
2%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
62
When you get together with your friends or family, would you say that
you discuss political matters:
Frequently
16%
Occasionally
51%
Never
Don't Know
0%
32%
1%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
63
How often do you:

100%
90%
80%
70%
21%
60%
50%
40%
30%
59%
20%
8%
10%
16%
0%
Every Day
11%
5%
Few Times A Week
3%
7%
3%
3%
64
Respondents Gender
Male
50%
Female
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
65
Respondents Age
18 to 29
35%
30 to 39
26%
40 to 49
19%
50 to 59
11%
60 and older
0%
8%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
66
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Some University
4%
Post Secondary Qualification
8%
Secondary Completed
9%
Some Secondary
22%
Primary Completed
14%
Some Primary
30%
No Formal Schooling
0%
13%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
67

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IRI Uganda Survey Public Presentation FINAL

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Public Opinion Survey

International Republican Institute

International Republican Institute

Looking ahead, do you expect the following to be better or worse in

Own Living Conditions Uganda Overall

National Resistance Movement

Int'l Donors / Int'l Financial Institutions

Fighting Corruption in Gov't

With regard to government hospitals and health clinics, please tell me

The National Resistance Movement made a series of campaign promises

but Failed to Deliver

Never was Committed,

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Now lets speak about the performance of various parts of the

Availability of Health Care

Badly / Very Badly

Forum for Democratic Change

Uganda People's Congress

Conservative Party 0.1%

Committed to Multi-Party Elections

International Republican Institute

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1

Completely Free and Fair

Free and Fair, with Minor Problems

Free and Fair, but with Major Problems

Not Free or Fair

During the 2011 election, did you / were you:

Do you expect the upcoming 2016 elections to be:

Completely Free and Fair?

Free and Fair, with Minor Problems?

Free and Fair, but with Major Problems?

Not Free or Fair?

Not at All Free

Not Very Free

Thinking about politics today in Uganda, how often do people have to be

How much do you personally fear becoming a victim of political

How likely do you think it is that:

Not Very/Not At All

Would the presence of armed security personnel (army or police) at

Much Less Secure

Would the presence of observers from other countries make things

Support Term Limits and

International Republican Institute

There should be no constitutional limits on the age of the president.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1

Which of these statements is closest to your opinion?

Needs to Be Changed so That It Is Independent of All Political Parties

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Which of the following statements about our

Don't Know / Agree With Neither 7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Likely Voter Participation

International Republican Institute

Need New National ID Card

Can Register with Old Documentation

Don't Know / Haven't Had a Chance to Hear

Free and Fair Elections Campaign

International Republican Institute