00

400
300
50
10 10% 1000 /
400 / 100 /
100 /

450 400
100 5% 12%

50 300
25% 12%

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

40
8
4
30

10

40

10

40 20
10
20 10

18

19

1 1
1

20

FV =
PV =
r

10% ,

100

10

n 100

110

FV= PV * (1+r)

10%

n 110

110
100

10

110

FV
PV =

FVu= PV * (1+r)n

(1+r)

PVu=

FVu
(1+r)n

21

FCF

1.00 0.90 0.81 0.73 0.65 0.59 0.53 0.31 0.18

0.12

DCF

(N P V)= D C
Ft

10

22

,
,
,

.
,
,
.

23

24


= +

( 1-

= 9.9% + 0.975% = 14.75%

= (1-33%)10.19% = 6.83%
=14.75% 66.7% + 6.83% 33.33% = 12.11%

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

= - -

= -
37

= /
= + /

=( - )/(1+ )k
( - )/(1+ )k=0
38

39

40

41

42

43


= km x

= km2 x

= x x
= + +

44

= x
= x 1-

45

46


= x x
= x
x
= x
= + +

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

45% 55%

56

57

 15
1

2
3
4

5 14%

58

 15
9

10

11

12

13

14

15

59

60

61

62

13

25%
63

64

1 -

65


=
=

+
x

66

25%

67

= x x
= +

=

/ /

x
14.5 16.5
62
0
124 0.01 0.2067

14.25 16.25
41
0
82
0.01 0.1367

16.28 18.28 -136 -201

-71
0.01 0.2167

14.5 16.5 -167 -167

-43
0.01 0.2067

68


1998 6

= +
+

69

=
=
=
70


=
= + +

=
=

71

72


= -

73

74

75

76


IRR

NPV

77

> 12%

(i=12%)>0

78

79

80

81

IRR

82

=12%

83

84

85

( NPV )

( NPV E( NPV))
i 1

NPV
-13.66

-3.98

5.70

15.37

E ( NPV )

25.05

NPV

i 1

86

NPV

87

88

89

90

91

35

30
25
20
15
10
5

0
70 71

72

73 74

75

76 77

78

79 80

81

82 83

84

85 86

87

88 89

90

91 92

93

94 95

96

97 98

92

93

100~1500

94

( NPV ) ( NPVi E( NPV ))2

i 1

1,000
.064

64

.048

48

.032

32

.016

16

.000

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

E ( NPV )

12,000.00

NPV

14,000.00

NPV

i 1

95

96

1
2
3
4

A>B
A<B
A>B
A<B

A<B
A>B
A>B
A<B

AB
AB

97

98


x1

x2

E r

F2
E r2
r2

F1
E r1
r1

xn

Fn
E rn
rn

99

100

25
20

15

MVP

10

10

12

14

16

18

20

( )

101

102

2.5

x 10

1.5

0.5

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

103

104