Professional Documents
Culture Documents
World population
6.7 Billions
Food demand
Agro-ecosystem sensitivity to
climate now
General Constraints
Local Constraints
Heat stresses
Hails and storms
Floods
Agro-ecosystem sensitivity to
Climate Change in the future
Climate change is expected to affect the agricultural production
acting on the main processes that regulate the different
components of the agro-ecosystem:
Components
Factors
CO2
Plant
Animal
Water
Dry matter
accumulation
Water use
Forage yield
Soil moisture
storage
Soil
Pest, diseases
Weeds
Quality of host
biomass
Crop competition
Temperature
Rainfall/Wind
Duration of
growing season
Growth and
reproduction
Peak irrigation
demand
Soil salinisation
Decomposition of
SOM
Nutrient cycle
Proliferation of
insect pests
Health
Water tables
Wind and water erosion
Diffusion of bacteria and fungi
Effectiveness of herbicide
1. Plants (I)
Enhanced CO2
Yield quantity: Plants will be directly
stimulated by enhanced concentrations
of CO2 leading:
to larger and more vigorous plants
to higher yields of total dry matter
(roots, shoots, leaves) and
harvestable product
Plants (II)
Changes of climatic parameters
Temperature. Higher temperature will
lead:
yields reduction of determinate crops,
i.e. cereals (shorter growing season)
yield increase in indeterminate crops,
i.e. forage crops (longer growing
season)
2. Water availability
Demand for water for
irrigation will rise increasing the
competition between agriculture
and urban as well as industrial
users of water
Water tables will fall making the
practice of irrigation more
expensive
Peak irrigation demands will
rise due to more severe heat
waves
Risk of soils salinisation will
be increase for higher evaporation
Main drivers:
higher temperature may be more favourable for the proliferation of
insect pests (longer growing seasons, higher possibility to survive during
winter time)
enhanced CO2 may affect insect pests through amount and quality of the
host biomass (higher consumption rate of insect herbivores due to
reduced leaf N)
altered wind patterns may change the spread of both wind-borne pests
and of bacteria and fungi
increased frequency of floods may increase outbreaks of epizootic
diseases (i.e. African Horse Sickness)
5. Weeds
Prospected agro-ecosystem
response to CC
The response of agricultural production will be
extremely variegated and very crop and site dependent
Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high
latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1-3C
depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some
regions.
At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical
regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small
local temperature increases (1-2C), which would increase the
risk of hunger.
Prospected agro-ecosystem
response to CC
Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to
affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence
sectors at low latitudes.
Following climate change, crops are likely to shift their cultivation area to
meet their specific optimum climate conditions.
c. Pasture
Yield is strictly dependent on the
projected rainfall pattern
Primary production may increase in
temperate regions but decrease in
semiarid and tropical regions
Species distribution and litter
composition will change (high CO2
levels may favor C3 plants over C4;
the opposite is expected under
associated temperature increases)
Yields will differently affected by
weeds, pests, nutrient, competition for
resources.
Vulnerable areas
LATIN AMERICA (I)
Significant loss of biodiversity (through species extinctions in many
areas of tropical Latin America)
Reduction of tropical forest due to:
Replacement by savannah (eastern Amazonas, central and South
Mexico)
Increased susceptibility to fire occurrences
Land-use change (deforestation, agriculture expansion, financing
large scale project such as dams, roads, etc)
Agricultural lands are very likely to be subjected to desertification
and salinisation
Changes in precipitation patterns are projected to affect water
availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation
Vulnerable areas
LATIN AMERICA
Great variability of yield projections
(II)
(-30% Mexico to +5% in Argentina)
Rice yields is expected to decrease
after the year 2010
Soybean will increase yields when
CO2 effects are considered
A mean reduction of 10% in maize
yields could be expected by 2055
Land suitable for growing coffee in
Brazil and Mexico is expected to be
reduced
Heat stress and more dry soils may
reduce yields to 1/3 in the tropics
Tubiello, 2007
Mitigation
Mitigative effects
Measure
Examples
Cropland
management
Rice management
Grazing land
management/
pasture improvement
Net mitigation
(confidence)
Agree- Eviment
dence
CO2
CH4
N2O
+/-
+/-
**
**
Nutrient management
***
**
Tillage/residue management
+/-
**
**
+/-
Grazing intensity
+/-
+/-
*
**
**
***
***
Agronomic strategies
short-term adjustment
long-term adaptation
Reduced water
availability
Higher/Wider
production needed
Food
production
Main uncertainties
Those related to the possibility to include in the
assessments all the sources of uncertainties (e.g.
climate scenario, crop experiments, models and
spatialisation procedures)
Those linked with unpredictable directions of future
social, economic, political and technical changes
(e.g. questions regarding population and
technological change are particularly relevant and
should be explored with upper and lower bounds of
possible projections)
Recommendations (I)
Encourage flexible land use (Resource: land).
Encourage more prudent use of water (Resource: water)
Improve the efficiency in food production and exploring
new biological fuels and ways to store more carbon in
trees and soils (Resource: energy)
Assemble, preserve and characterise plant and animal
genes and research on alternative crops and animals
(Resource: genetic diversity)
Recommendations (II)
Encourage research on adaptation, developing new
farming systems and developing alternative foods
(Resource: research capacity)
Enhance national systems that disseminate information
on agricultural research and technology, and encourages
information exchange among farmers (Resource:
information systems)
Promote the development of agricultural weather
information systems including the use of long-term
weather forecasts (Resource: management).
Integrate environmental, agricultural and cultural
policies to preserve the heritage of rural environments
(Resource: culture).