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Pre-Requisites
Familiar with Builder.
Concepts of spatial interpolation and mapping.
Concepts of geostatistics (variogram, kriging).
Concepts of conditional simulation.
Suggested Geostatistical Text Books:
An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics, Isaaks and Srivastava, Oxford
Applied Geostatistics for Reservoir Characterization, Kelkar and Perez, SPE
Geostatistics and Petroleum Geology, Hohn, Kluwer
Geostatistical Reservoir Modeling, Deutsch, Oxford
Deterministic or Probabilistic?
Probability space
Physical domain
Z(u , ) {Z (u )}, u D
Space
u: ( x, y, z )
Coordinate
Z(u
Z(u)
z (u )
Mineral Deposit
Oil Reservoir
Gold
Porosity
Permeability
Z(u ,1)
Z(u) z1(u)
Z(u , 2)
Z(u)
z2(u)
Z(u ,3)
Z(u) z3(u)
Probability
Density
Function at
location u
f Z (u )
u
is defined
over multiple
realizations
Trivariate
Bivariate
D
D
N-variate
N = NX*NY*NZ
Z(u ,1)
z1(u)
z1(u)
u
Z(u , )
1, ,100
100 realizations
f Z (u )
f Z (u )
n=100
z(u)
1, ,100
m E{Z (u )} E{( Z (u ) m) }
2
n=100
m
3
(100 realizations)
=> No Trend
=> No Trend
n 2
(( z (u ) m)( z (u ) m))
i
Coefficient
of correlation
Z (u50 )
Z (u40 )
0.0
0.9
Pairing
locations
n=100
n=100
Z (u1 )
Z (u39 )
h=49
h=1
Z (u50 )
Z (u40 )
0.0
0.9
1.0
2
d
2
1
z
z
2
0.1
n=100
Z (u1 )
n=100
Z (u39 )
(0) 2 (h)
Correlation vanishes
f(h ) when moment of
inertia reach the
maximum value
f(h )
(0) 0
h
h=lag distance between any two random variables
not to scale
1
1
2
(h ) E{( Z (u ) Z (u h )) } E{( z (u ) z (u h )) 2 }
2
2
Example of a realization of Random Function in 1D
h
Lag size
z(u)
z(u)
D
u
random variables
100 variograms
(h ) , [1,100]
The averaged variogram
identifies the variogram
of the random function.
1
(h )
N
(h )
1
Ergodic fluctuations
not to scale
Data histogram
uu
r
ur 2
1 N ( hi )
ur [ z (u ) z (u hi )]k , u
2 N (hi ) k 1
h=1
(h 1) =>
N(h=1) = 19
( h 2) => N(h=2) = 18
h=2
( h 3) => N(h=3) = 17
h=3
h=19
regular sampling => regular lag distances
r
(hi )
Lag size
1
ur
2 N ( hi )
uu
r
N ( hi )
ur 2
[
z
(
u
)
z
(
u
i )]k , u
k 1
1
1
1
1
2
0
1
0
42
43 42
39 39 41 40 38
37 37 37 35
38 37 37 33 34
35 38
37 36 36 35
35
36 35 36 35
34 33 32 29 28
38 37 35
30
29 30 32
hi
hi = lag distance vector
er
an
ce
40 39 37 36
to
l
40 42
4 pairs
dth
wi
nd
Ba
44
k 1
L
ag
Attribute Z
ur 2
[ z (u ) z(u hi )]k , u
si
ze
1
ur
2 N (hi )
L
ag
2D sampling
uu
r
N ( hi )
hi
Angle
tolerance
Direction
angle
Fitting Variograms
Experimental
1
ur
2 N (hi )
ur 2
[ z(u ) z(u hi )]k , u
k 1
Variogram
(hi )
Semi-Variance
(h)
r
(hi )
uu
r
N ( hi )
(direction
Theoretical
hi
1
(h) E{( Z (u ) Z (u h)) 2 }
2
Anisotropy
Ellipse
Variogram Map
(h)
N
h
h
Sill at 10
Top View.
Vertical Cross-section
along x-axis.
(h)
Variogram is
symmetric in h
( h) ( h)
Would be a variogram
cube in 3D
N(0,1)
Nugget Model
1
0
-1 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
(h)
-2
-3
-4
.
Spherical Model
N(0,1)
2
1
(h)
0
-1 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-2
-3
Gaussian Model
.
3
2
N(0,1)
(h)
0
-1 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-2
-3
Isotropic-Anisotropic
(h)
All Directions
(h)
N(0,1)
N(0,1)
Isotropic
Anisotropic
Northing
East-West Direction
Easting
f Z (u39 ) f Z (u40 ) f Z
Z (u40 )
0.9
u39
u40
Stationary
Conditional
Stationary
f Z (u40 | Z (u39 ) z )
Considering only realizations with z(u39) = 1
Stationary
Z (u39 )
(1)
z(u39) = 1
Z (u40 )
(1)
Z (u39 )
f Z (u40 ) f Z
f Z (u40 | Z (u39 ) z )
m 0.0
1.0
2
m 0.9
0.3
2
(1)
Conditional
Stationary
Z (u40 )
Stationary or Unconditional
Z (u40 )
Conditional
Local pdf at u40 is a conditional pdf
f Z (u ) f Z (u ) f Z
3
m
E{Z (u )} m
f Z (u | (n)) f Z (u | (n))
3
m
E{Z (u ) | (n )} m(u )
3
Away from the data, Stationarity remains
Z(u , ) {z (u )}
m
3
Conditional Stationary Random Function
3
m
3
Z(u, ) {Z (u )}
Unconditional
Random Variables
(n )
(n)
Conditional
Random Variables
Conditioned by
(n) Data
Uncertainty is reduced in the vicinity of the data
Kriging in a nutshell
Kriging is a linear estimator
searching neighborhood
Z (u )
n(u)
z(u ) z (u )
?
u
Z (u ) Z (u )
None-bias condition E{ (u )} 0
Kriging in a nutshell
Computing variance of estimation error
Linear estimator
Z (uo )
n ( uo )
Z (u )
n ( uo )
Constraint
Estimation error
Var { (u0 )} 2 (h 0 )
(h )
n
under constraint
G ( , )
0 ,
n equations
G ( , )
0
1 equation
r
r
(h ) (h 0 )
n
Lagrange Multiplier
n+1 equations
n+1 unknowns
Ordinary Kriging
n
Minimum Variance
Var { (u0 )} (h 0 )
Estimator
Var { (u0 )}
1 2 1
Error Variance at u
searching neighborhood
Z (u )
?
u
(h)
Variogram
Semi-Variance
Kriging in a nutshell
(h)
1
E{( Z (u ) Z (u h)) 2 }
2
Lag distance h
Z (u ) Z (u )
n(u )
Kriged Map
Kriging in a nutshell
Z (u )
Kriged Map
Azimuth 90
Inverse distance
Azimuth 0
Kriging
Inverse distance
Azimuth 90
Kriging Anisotropy 90 Degree
Azimuth 0
Kriging Anisotropy 0 Degree
Kriging Variance
2 1
range = 10
K2 0.151
0.5
0
0.5
u
-4
0.01
1
0.332
u
0
Not to scale
0.668
?
1
K2 0.875
0.5
K2 0.203
Screening effect
0.99
0.5
K2 0.299
?
Variance = 1
Kriging Variance
1
2
Not to scale
0.5
0
0.5
-4
range = 10
K2 0.151
K2 0.0003
K2 0.875
K2 0.126
0.5
10
Gaussian
0.5
0.5
-9
1
2
range = 10
0.5
Spherical
10
11
K2 1.5 2 1.0
K2 0.77
Estimation-Simulation
Use the minimized error variance to characterize
uncertainty around kriged value
This uncertainty is often assumed to follow
Linear combination of
a Gaussian distribution=>Multi-Gaussian Dataset Gaussian distributions
69
is also Gaussian
+ Z (u) Z (u )
79
n (u )
n (u )
n (u )
47
Z (u ) Z (u )
u_0
[ Z (u ) 3 K , Z (u ) 3 K ]
60
27
+
64
Z (u )
n (u )
78
(h )
2
K
Simulation =>
Draw a Z(u) value
at random
K2
Z (u )
Lagrange Multiplier
Multi-Gaussian Distributions
Univariate Gaussian
(bell shape)
Bivariate Gaussian
(ellipse)
Trivariate Gaussian
(ellipsoid)
N-variate Gaussian
N = NX*NY*NZ
(hyper-ellipsoid in N dimensions)
Gaussian Random Function on a Grid => N-variate Gaussian Distribution
=> Gaussian Stationary Histogram
F=>Datacdf
G=>StandardGaussiancdf
1
cumulative histogram
cdf
Probability
G ( y1)
FZ (z1)
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
2.5
0
1.5
NormalScoresY
Transform
0.5
0.5
y1
1.5
2.5
p G ( y1) FZ ( z1)
y1 G 1 ( FZ ( z1))
3.5
z1
4.5
DataZ
Back-Transform
z1 FZ1 (G ( y1))
( p )
0
StandardGaussiancdf:p=G(y)
Probability
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
y( m , ) G 1 ( p ) * m G(m1, ) ( p )
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
2.5
0
1.5
0.5
NormalScores
0.5
y(0,1)
( y )
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
y( m, ) y( 0,1) * m
Rescaling according to kriging
Bivariate Gaussian
Univariate Gaussian
Z2
Pr{Z1}
Pr{Z2|Z1}
Z1
Z1
Z1 = z
Pr{Z1}
Z1 = z Z2 = z
z and z are correlated
values ( )
Pr{Z1,Z2} = Pr{Z1}*Pr{Z2|Z1}
Trivariate Gaussian
Pr{Z1,Z2,Z3} = Pr{Z1}*Pr{Z2|Z1}*Pr{Z3|Z2,Z1}
Z1 = z
Pr{Z1} Z1
Z2 = z
Z3 = z
Pr{Z2,Z3|Z1}
3
Z2
Z3
Z3
Pr{Z3 |Z2,Z1}
Z2
Z2
z, z, and z are correlated values
Z1
Pr{Z2|Z1}
px
N(0,1)
2
(u1 )
3. Rescale z using Z (u1 ) and SK
Z (u1 ) 0 z (u0 )
(u1 )
2
SK
Z sim (u1 )
(u2 )
2
SK
Z sim (u2 )
2
Z (u2 ) and SK
(u 2 )
Estimation-Simulation
Multiple Geostatistical Realizations
3
m
Kriged curve
3
Kriged standard
deviation
Data
Geostatistical Simulation
Data
Kriging Estimation
Kriging Simulation
Geostatistical Simulation
Variogram Reproduction
Simulations
Data
estimation
Geostatistical Simulation
Data
Histogram Reproduction
2 25540
Simulation
Kriging
2 11793
2 25438
Geostatistical Simulation
One answer
Kriging Estimation
Multiple answers
Kriging Simulation
Flow Simulator
Flow Simulator
Uncertainty Analysis
Flow on Kriged map
Co-Kriging in a nutshell
Z (u )
Primary-Hard
?
u
Y (u )
Secondary-Soft
u
Z (u )
n (u )
Z (u ) Z (u ) Y (u )
1
n (u )
Z (u ) Z (u )
?
u
Kriging
Co-Kriging
Colocated-Kriging cc=0.7
Soft
Colocated-Kriging cc=0.9
Getting Started
Start Launcher