Program Logic Model for Urb

an and Regional Planning

Kakuya MATSUSHIMA
Kyoto University

Risk
Management

Assessment of orgs
Capital / Asset Risks
Org. Capacity to implement
strategy
Provision of strategic
resources for org.
Investment/balancing
trade-offs & prioritization of
resources

III

Financial
Human
Structural
Ingenuity/I
deas
Social
Relational

Diplomacy/Influe
nce Leverage
Network
Effective public representation of
Boards position
Scan

Friendraising & fundraising

Alliances/Partnerships
Self-assessment & Board
evaluation
Board succession
Crisis/Emergency Plan

Capital
Assessment &
Allocation

Politic
Economic
Social
Technological
Other

Q.I./B.P.R
Knowledge management
Innovation
Alliances/partnerships/suppliers

II

Clear policies on Ethical Practices,

CEO Limitations
Clear golas & measures for CEO
Org. perf. Measurement -> Board
reports
Annual Board Calendar & Board

&
Accountability

Critical success factors

Performance measurement &
reporting
Performance Management
Remuneration & rewards

urce:
Banff Executive Leadership Inc., 2003

Scanning/reading for
trends
Org. system & its
connection to other
systems
Stewardships Principles
Board-CEO Partnership
Agreement

Outcome &
Impact

SWOT
Core Competencies
Measurement
Org. Capacity

Oversight,
Perspective,
Ethical Reflection

IV
Processes

Network
Scan

Values
Differentiation positioning
Thought Models
Mission
Vision

Relevance

Community
engagement
Differentiation & value
to community
Conversation with CEO

Contents
What is a Program Logic Model?
How to Structure a Program Logic Model
Case Study in Nichinan town, Japan
Framework
Baseline Survey

Case Study in Hanshin Expressway Co. Lt

d.

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What is a Program Logic Mo

del?

Planning and Evaluation

Is just planning enough?
We need to check and evaluate it!

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What Are Models?

Abstraction from reality
Reality is too complex
Sets of assumptions

Focus on key aspects of problems

Allows to cut to the chase

Different models suit different purposes

Can reflect different points of view
No right model
As long as it:
clarifies policy views
improves transparency of policy debate

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Opening the black box

inputs

model

outputs

What the
model needs

How the
model works

What you get

from the model!

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Reexamination of the System

The way of public services

restructuring a new syst

em
the providers,
the personnel and ca
pital resources,
the assessment and
management method
s,
and so on

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From outputs to outcome

s

outputs-oriented appr
oach
How much the public p
rojects and services ha
ve been provided?
outcomes-based appro
ach
How much they have b
een useful for the quali
ty of life?
8

Whats a Program Logic Mode

l?
Kellogg Foundation Evaluation Handbook
A program logic model was first introduced in 1998.
The handbook doesnt describe the details on a specific managem
ent process.

Definition;
Program Logic Model is a system diagram or a logical model repres
enting logically how the output relates and contributes to the o
utcome.
Outcome; a management goal of the social system or the administrative m
anagement system, and
Output; projects, services, measures and other means using business reso
urces.
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Its Function
Thus the model has the form of a diagram or logical structu
re, a program logic model shows the structure of the mana
gement system itself.
A program logic model, as well as showing the qualitative r
elationship, can also indicate the relationship of quantitati
ve evaluation. Then, it serves as a tool for the evaluation of
performance and achievement of business objectives.
A program logic model shows a structure of the manageme
nt system to be built under a certain social environment, na
tural environment and technical environment. Thus, it serv
es as a tool for confirmation or revision of the management
system.
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What is a logic model?

A framework for theory driven programming a
nd evaluation based on the detailed connecti
on between the activities provided and the ou
tcomes that you hope to accomplish.
A systematic and visual way to present the rel
ationship between your planned work and you
r intended results.
A reasonable person employed to pose for an
artist, photographer or to display clothes.
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What is a logic model?

A systematic and visual way to present and share your
understanding of the relationships among:
a. the resources you have to operate your program
b. the activities you plan
c. the changes or results you hope to achieve.

W.K. Kellogg Foundation (2004)

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What is a logic model?

A logic model will answer these question
s:
1. What are you trying to achieve and why
is it important?
2. How will you measure effectiveness?
3. How are you actually doing?

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What is a logic model?

Read left to right
Describe programs basics over time from planning through
results
If,then statements connect the programs parts

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14
W.K. Kellogg Foundation
(2004)

What is the purpose of a logic mo

del?
Purpose = to provid
e stakeholders with a
road map describing
the sequence of rela
ted events connectin
g the need for the pl
anned program with
the programs desire
d results.
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Preferred approach t
o developing perfor
mance measures
-governmental
-public
-private sectors.

15

Why Use a Logic Model?

1. Strategic and Program Planning
- Identify your vision, rationale behind your progra
m , and how your program will work.
2. Effective Communication
- Provide a snapshot view of your program and int
ended outcomes.
3. Evaluation Planning
- Basic framework for an evaluation with outcome
s in measurable terms.
4. Continuous Learning and Improvement
- Point of reference against which progress toward
s achievement of desired outcomes can be measured
on an ongoing basis.
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How would you use the logic mod

el?

W.K. Kellogg Foundation (2004)

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17

How would you use the logic mod

el?
Do this exercise RIGHT to LEFT and then read left to right.

W.K. Kellogg Foundation (2004)

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Advantages
Linear Approach simple and straightforwa
rd
- shows the chain of events that link input
s to results
- brings detail to broad goals
Validity used over the past 20 years
Builds understanding and consensus
Identifies gaps in logic and uncertain assu
mptions
Signals what to evaluate and when
Summarizes a complex program to commu
nicate with externals
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Disadvantages
Represents reality, but its not reality
Programs are not linear
Focuses on expected outcomes
Challenge of causal attribution
Many factors influence outcomes
Doesnt address: Are we doing the right th
ing?

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How to Structure a Program

Logic Model

Hierarchical Structure

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Hierarchical Structure
A strategic aim is set considering;
High residents demand,
Not easy to achieve the target level, necessary to allocate governme
nt resources (people, money) , and
Concrete expression of quantitative outcome, not abstract or vague.

Hierarchical structure of aims and means

To enumerate the means to achieve an aim and organize as a hierarc
hical structure.

Intermediate aims are set considering;

Mid-term way to achieve an upper aim, and
To repeat this study and break down to the concrete activities.
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Hierarchical Structure
of Nichinan Model
A strategic aim
To develop and maintain t
he communities against d
epopulation and aging.
Originality of Nichinan.

3 long-term aims
Work, Living and Pleasure

15 short-term aims
Breaking down the long-te
rm aims
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Action plans
High-priority, cross-sectional
topics based on the baseline
survey.

Means
roles sharing for each action
plan.
Discussing at workshops abo
ut roles sharing of bodies suc
h as individuals and familie
s, local communities, busi
nesses, schools and local
government.
24

Outcome Indicators
Outcome indicators in Nichinan model
basic strength indicators
Common issues in depopulated mountainous areas

Nichinan original indicators

Considering positive and negative features of the culture, history, climate, et
c.
necessary to achieve the strategic aim.

Outcome indicators should;

adequately represent the corresponding aim,
easy to collect data, less time and cost,
Exist comparative benchmarks such as statistical average and histori
cal trend, and
Available district-based data.
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Steps Structuring a Model

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Evaluation Framework

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Significance of a Program Logic Model

Study portfolio
The combination of measures needed to achieve the goals are numerous.
Several means have complementary relationship and are effective in many ca
ses be taken in combination.
To analyze the combination of the most effective and efficient way.

Operation of a management cycle

If you can not get the planned target level; for example,
In the course of socio-economic environment changes, some changes occur in the rela
tionship between aims and means considered, and the model did not work as expecte
d, or
The means were not effective to begin with,

The model gives us basic information why the aims are not able to be achieve
d.
We can select more effective and efficient means through the management c
ycle (Plan-Do-Check-Action).
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Case Study
in Nichinan Town
1) Framework

Location and Population

http://www.town.nichinan.lg.jp/

A small town in the mo

untains located in prefe
cture Tottori, Japan.
About 5,400 people liv
e.

Nichinan
Town
Pacific
Ocean

The ageing rate, the pr

oportion of over 65 to t
otal population, is abou
t 45% which is much ov
er 22% of the national
average.

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Population Pyramid in Japan

Age

Nichinan Town,
2005

Male Population (person)

Female
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Depopulation in Nichinan in the Past

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1965

1975

1985

1995
32

Depopulation in Nichinan Estimated

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2005

2015

2025

2035

33

Nichinan Vision Project

Toward 30 Years Future
Municipal mergers have been promoted natio
nwide, but Nichinan town decided to remain a
n individual municipality.

Nichinan Vision Project toward 30 Year

s Future
started in July 2006.
aiming to reform the Town through
the discussion regarding the time
after high ageing rate and low birth rate.
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Purpose of Structuring a Model

to make clear which activities the residents and e
ach operating body have to do among the means
which are settled on the logic model,
to make clear the scope of which the local govern
ment should support and to
coordinate it with the next master plan, and
as the result of them above, to take steady admini
strative management toward a sustainable social
system in 30 years and more.
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Organization

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Organization
Specialist Meeting;
Researchers from Universities and Private Sectors, and
Representatives from local businesses.

Executive Committee;
Local young business persons.

Working Team;
Young public officers.

Head Body;
Joint meeting of 3 bodies above.

Leaders of Residents;
Participating the head body as operating bodies.

Other Supporting Bodies;

Administrative office, university office and arrangement meeting.
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Workshops
Purpose;
To catch the opinions and ideas from the residents, and
To enhance the effectiveness of the program logic model.

27 times held, 731 residents participated, so far.

a
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Workshops
in Various Places and Occasions
Abire District

Iwami River

Tari District

Hinokami District
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The Method from WS to Model

From the workshops to the program logic model;
To ensure the legitimacy of the citizen participatory
program logic model, and
To select the topics of interest to the residents based
on objective information and method.

TF-IDF Method;
Term Frequency, Inverse Document Frequency.
Investigating what issues the participants are highly c
oncerned.

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TF-IDF Method
Comparison
corpus

Comparing

Program logic model

keywords

coincident
words

using
the phrases

important phrases
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Objective dialog

41

Top 10 Keywords Highly Concerned by

Residents

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Nichinan Program Logic Model

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Aims and Outcome Indicators

(in Japanese only)

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Action Plans and Activities

(in Japanese only)

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Outcome Indicators List; WOR

K

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Outcome Indicators List; LIVIN

G

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Outcome Indicators List; PLEA

SURE

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Case Study
in Nichinan Town

2) Baseline Survey

Baseline Survey
Trend Analysis Using Statistics Data;
To pick up prior issues, and
To build Action Plans.

Reviewing the Past Resident Satisfaction S

urvey
Brief Analysis of Correlation Coefficient a
mong Outcome Indicators
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Classifying 84 Indicators

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Picking Up Prior Issues; Level 1 and 2

many indicators in WORK field
a few indicators in LIVING field
education, self-sufficiency and working at ol
d age

many indicators in PLEASURE field

a few indicators basic strength indicator
s
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Action Plans
Picking up prior issues based on trend analysis

Restructuring the framework crossing 15 intermediate aims

Setting 7 action plans related to;

1) human resources, 2) high value added industries, 3) incubation,
4) health, 5) community activation, 6) transportation, 7) natural env
ironment

Setting means and roles sharing for each action plan

Discussing at workshops about roles sharing of bodies such as indi
viduals and families, local communities, businesses, schools a
nd local government.
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Resident Satisfaction

Activity Diary Survey in 2002

The questionnaire included t
he questions asking the degr
ee of satisfaction with their li
fe.
35 factors were asked.

The factors with which were

more dissatisfied

WORK field
income from agriculture
diversity of job opportunity
job choices suited for individ
uals
farming system

LIVING field
public transportation

Rich nature was rated the hig

hest satisfaction among all ge
nerations and genders.
These results support the res
ult of trend analysis using sta
tistics data discussed above.

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PLEASURE field
existence of friends
meeting places with friends
amusement facilities

54

Brief Analysis
of Correlation Coefficient
The present condition
s of data collection
About half of the data h
ave not been collected
yet.
Each survey year is not
uniform.
some data are survey
ed yearly and others
every five or three ye
ars.
In this paper, instead, w
e calculate simple corre
lation coefficient.
2013/10/1

What to remember
The correlation coeffici
ent does not clarify the
causal relation.
These result is based o
n the limited informatio
n.
When more data are co
llected in future, we wo
uld like to analyze more
detail again by using si
mulation model for exa
mple.
55

Correlation Coefficient

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2013/10/1

57

Group A; Highly Correlated to

Total Population

Indicators included in Group

A;
the indicators related to ind
ustry such as

Age

the cultivated acreage rat

e,
the product shipment amo
unt and
the household income, an
d

the indicators related to me

dical care such as
Nichinan Town,
2005

Male Population (person)

Female

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the number of doctors per

resident,
the number of inpatients v
isiting the municipal hospi
tal and
the rate of elderly requirin
g nursing care.
58

Group B; Highly Correlated to

Labor Force Ratio
Indicators included in
Group B;

Age

Nichinan Town,
2005

Male Population (person)

Female

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the indicators related t

o the age structure of
the population, and
the indicators related t
o industry such as
the age of farmers,
the cultivated acreag
e rate and
the planted acreage.
59

Supposition; What Has Happened

in the Depopulated Area?
Group A
Medical cares needs

Natural decrease

Depopulation

The lack of successors

Business closure

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Group B
Elderly cares needs

Aging rate increase

Labor force generation de

crease

The lack of successors in

agricultural industry

Agricultural industry redu

ction in size
60

Case Study
in Hanshin Expressway

Hanshin Expressway Network

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http://www.hanshin-exp.co.jp/english/aboutus/outline/network.html

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Tree diagram (partial) of Hanshin Expre

ssway Logic Model (HELM)

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PDCA cycle for maintenance

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Concept of risk optimization

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Conceptual diagram of risk cur

ve

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Flow of management level sett

ing (in the case of potholes)

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Risk-based reorganization of
management

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Estimated reductions in risk and cost by r

eorganization of routine on-road inspectio
n

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References
W.K. Kellogg Foundation, 2004, Logic Model Develo
pment Guide, available at http://www.wkkf.org
Nozomi Kaminaga, 2010, Building Citizen Participat
ory Program Logic Models in Marginal Areas, in H.W
estlund and K.Kobayashi(Eds.), Social Capital and D
evelopment Trends in Rural Areas Vol5., MARG.
Sakai, Y., Kobayashi, K., and Uetsuka, H., 2008, Risk
Evaluation and Management for Road Maintenance
on Urban Expressway Based on HEML (Hanshin Exp
ressway Logic Model) , Proc. of IABSE Conference, H
elsinki, Finland.
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