THE PROBLEM OF

DISASTERS IN KENYA
Save More Campaign Launch
Nairobi
30th May 2015
Wachira J.
Junior DRR Consultant, Rural Focus LTD
Technical Volunteer, The Save More Campaign

Disasters- Divergent Narratives

Mainstream

Emerging thinking

understanding

Among academic researchers of urban and rural risks

and DRR experts

Common among UN & Agencies, INGOs/NGOS, most

governments, Media, EMDAT and most disaster data
sites etc

Challenges the mainstream understanding as it tends

disregard trivial, everyday hazards while
concentrating more on the large, catastrophic events.

Defined by: Natural or technological event in which:

1.

In most cities and smaller urban centres in low

and middle income countries, the myriad
everyday small and medium but chronic events
cumulatively kill or injure more people than
large disasters Bull-Kamanga et al., (2003), .

2.

Peoples interaction with these events may

generate or aggravate vulnerabilities to larger
disasters by expending their coping capacities or
discouraging adaptive measure if the
communities particularly the marginally settled
get used to them as part of their daily
experiences.

10 or more people reported killed

and/or

1.

1.

2.

2. 100 people reported affected

and/or,

3.

3. a call for international assistance

and/or,

4.

4. declaration of a state of
emergency.

Facts:

The Disaster Continuum

Effective disaster management should envision disasters as a continuum entailing everyday risks
to small and large disasters, depending on the scale of the loss (and generally the frequency of
the event

Example: The Continuum of water related in an urban setting (Wachira 2013, based on Satterthwaite
(2006)
Nature of event

Everyday [chronic] risks

Small Disaster

Disaster

Frequency

Everyday

Frequent (Often Seasonal)

Generally infrequent

Scale

1-2 people killed; 1-9 people injured

3-9 people killed, 10 or more injured

Large or potential to be large

10+ killed, 100+ seriously injured

Impact on all premature

and serious Injuries

Main cause of premature deaths and serious Probably significant and underestimated Can be catastrophic for specific
injuries e.g. diseases caused by contaminated/ contribution e.g. seasonal flooding and places and times, but low over
stagnant/untreated water
drought
all
e.g. heavy flash floods and
severe drought exacerbated by
climate change

Disaster Continuum (cntd) Case of Mathare Valley, Nairobi

Kenya Natural Hazards Map (UNDP Enhanced Security Program)

Kenya Natural Hazards Map doesnt overlap

well with Natural Disaster Map
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1982: 4,000

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2011: 3.75 M affected

2009: 3.79 M affected
2006: 2.97 affected
2004: 2-3 M People
1999/2000: 4.4 M people
1995/96: 1.41 M people
1991/92: 1.5 M people
1983/84: 200000
1980: 40000
1977: 20000
1975: 16000

2004:
2,000
affected
2002: 2,000
affected

Technological disasters

Are a common occurrence, in the form of factory/enterprise fires, industrial emissions, fuel tanker
accidents, accidents & derailments etc

Recent examples

i.

Changamwe Lead poisoning (Kenya Metal refinery)- 2007-2015, 3 dead, 5000 affected
(Standard Media Group 2015)

ii.

Nairobi Pipeline Fire Disaster (Mukuru-Sinai Fire): 2011, 120 people were killed in the fire
and at least 116 others were hospitalized with varying degrees of burns (Kenya Red Cross)

iii.

Molo (Sachangwan) and Kericho fuel truck fire: 2009, 131 died, 271 casualties (Open
Access Journal of Plastic Surgery, 2009)

iv.

Nakumat Downtown Fire: 2009, 46 died, property worth billions of $ and cultural values
reduced to ashes (Open Access Journal of Plastic Surgery, 2009)

Often Characterized by:

political dignitaries troop to the scene of disaster,

declaration of days of mourning, calls for foreign
aid, rhetoric, promises to take action, the blame
game and finally, business as usual

Cost of poor disaster preparedness

Difficult to estimate, especially because of the numerous undereported events and the fact that
impact transcends financial values to touch on social and other losses on the population and
economy

We can get an indication from drought emergency responses:

But

OCHA has estimated that the GoK allocated Ksh 18 billion to drought response in 2011. World bank and
other donors channeled over US$ 125 m (ksh.10 billion) in the decade ending 2010.

A Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) for the extended 2008-2011 drought period estamates the total
damage to the Kenya Economy over this period was a staggering Ksh 968 billion (Fitsgiborn 2012)

Yet..

Investing in resilience building and early response is more cost effective with a proven actual cost per
head of 50% lower in both drought and non-drought years

Disasters, Impacts and thus costs are likely to go up

Political

goodwill remains elusive.

Currently there are no laws or regulations addressing DM specifically.

Kenyas National Disaster Management Policy which provides for a comprehensive institutional and legal framework has yet to be introduced in
Parliament for enactment into law.

Mandates for DMA have been given to both the National and County Governments under schedule 4 of the CoK 2010. Some counties are already
drafting county DM act, which are likely to remain as draft till there is a national policy/legislation

Climate

Change is aggravating frequency, variability and intensity of environment

related hazards such as floods and drought. A climate Change mgt bill was shot down by
Parliament in 2013

Population

increase, high unemployment and urbanization leading to high risk jobs (e.g.
prostitution, illegal brewing) and settlement in marginal and precarious lands

Frequent

ethnic related displacements

Increasing
Terrorism

land degradation and deforestation (e.g Mau Forest and Cherangany Hill)

Is all lost?
Constitution of Kenya 2010 though without explicit articles on DRR,
avenue through the bill of rights (e.g. to life) and access to basic
services (e.g clean adequate water in Article 43
Kenya Vision for a middle level income by 2030 provided an
opportunity for working towards eliminating/minimizing impacts of
disasters
IGAD Sanctioned EDE (Ending Drought Emergencies) support
resilience anchored interventions/thinking
Post 2015 SDG provide a paradigm shift, highlighting importance of
resilience and gravitating towards the generation of local solutions
to local problems
Sendai Framework for DRR vouches for an enhanced role for
science, and recognizes social processes and weak institutional
arrangements as drivers of risk
CMDRR approach is proving productive in DRR, through community

How can the SM Campaign Help?

1.
2.

Campaign,

Campaign,
Campaign; for

The demystification of the naturalness of Disasters

Legislation enactment and policy formulation on DM
Resilience orientated interventions

3.
4.

Justice to Victims of Disasters

Think about it..

A strategically positioned flea can
make even the biggest dog in the
world UNCOMFORTABLE anonymous
End. Thanks
Wachirajac@yahoo.com