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PREDICTION (NWP)
Kelompok 13
Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi
Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Institut Pertanian Bogor
2015
Hilda A
yu P
(G2412
0068)
Tipe-tipe model
Heuristic
Empirical
Conceptual
Analytic
Numerical
Regional
Global
Owner
(NCEP) (Phased out)
(NCEP) (Phased out)
(NCEP) (Replaced by NAM, NAM-WRF)
(NCAR/NCEP) (Replaced by RAP)
(PSU / Air Force, etc.)
(NCEP and GFDL Lab)
(Navy)
(NCEP)
Model
Owner
GFS (Formerly the
AVN/MRF)
(NCEP)
NOGAPS
(Navy)
GEM
(Canada)
ECMWF
(European Union)
UKMET
(United Kingdom)
Numerical Weather
PredictionPrediction
(NWP)is very
difficult,
especially if it's about the
future.
Nils Bohr
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SEJARAH SINGKAT
Recognition by V. Bjerknes in 1904 that
forecasting is fundamentally an initial-value
problem and basic system of equations already
known
L. F. Richardsons (1922) attempt at practical
NWP
Radiosonde invention in 1930s made upper-air
data available
Late 1940s: First successful dynamical-numerical
forecast made by Charney, Fjortoft, and von
Neumann
1960s: Edward Lorenz shows the atmosphere is
chaotic and its predictibility limit is about two
weeks
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SISTEM NWP
NWP entails not just the design
and development of atmospheric
models, but includes all the
different components of an NWP
system
It is an integrated, end-to-end
forecast process system
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The actual forecasting part of the model is only one part of a very
complicated procedure of
Data collection and assimilation
Forecasting
Post Processing
Distribution to users
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Fase Analisis
Forcasting
sebelumnya
DATA
GRID 3D
Observasi
ASIMILASI
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Parameterizations
Initial conditions
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Approximations of physical
processes
Sistem Observasi
Analisis Objektif
Initialization
Data asimilasi
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ERROR IN NWP
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S o u rc e s o f M o d e l E rro r
E r r o r s in t h e
I n it ia l C o n d it io n s
(e rro n e o u s d a ta )
( la c k o f d a t a )
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E r r o r s in M o d e l
( S im p lis t ic A s s u m p t io n s )
( A n a ly s is E r r o r s )
( C o m p u t a t io n a l E r r o r s )
I n t r in s ic P r e d ic t a b ilit y
L im it a t io n s
( S m a ll a n a ly s is e r r o r s > > > )
> > > L a r g e fo r e c a s t e r r o r s )
Model Errors
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Equations of Motion
Incomplete
Errors in Numerical
Approximations
Horizontal Resolution
Vertical Resolution
Time Integration Procedure
Boundary Conditions
Horizontal
Vertical
Terrain
Physical Processes
Example
of error
growth
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LOGO
Thank You !