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A

2012 12 13

LED

A IPO

A IPO

2009

2009

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221

TPG

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2008

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2010 205

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11.7

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Korea National Oil
Corporation Dana
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2010

Dealogic 5,000 A 2012 2

11

12

1995
John Mack

-
2006 10
100%

2007
50

2008 4

2008 6

2009 6
12
9.9%
2010 12

2010 12 31

2011 6 10 ,

10%

PE

13

A
100 30

14

15


2010

16

15

72 15

60 15
300

17

IPO

18

A IPO

John Mack


A
30
A

A IPO

19

CEO

CEO
/CEO

1995 John Mack

20

John
Mack

Roberto Vedovotto

Member of Morgan
Stanleys China

Committee

Chang, Joe

Managing Director

Head of A-share IBD


Depute CEO of MSHX

John J. Mack

Jeffrey H. Salzman

CFO COO

21

2012

2012


2

6
1

12
2

6 1

20,000
16,000

16,000
15,496

12,000

12,000

8,000

8,000

4,128

4,000

13,205

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12 2

2,500,000

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337,600 324,046 313,968

22

8.29 A

2011 3 4

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56

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2011 3 4 / 2011 3 16

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41.46 /

40.48-41.47

300191 /

2008-2010 , 81.1%
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BP


WEFOX
80% 52%

( 2011 3 16 )

(1)
20%

(2.1%)

(8.5%)


183 3

10 10

6.63 , 95


41.46 /

8.54%

2010 56.0
1. 53 8 50

23

118

2012 3 28
MSHX
Morgan Stanley

118 A



60
9
20
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A 22.5%
21.2%

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2011 4 A

2007

601169.SH

1,105,904,401 15.1%

118

20 90% 10.88
/ 10.67 /

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36

2011.4.29

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2011.6.20

2011.2.23

10

2011.4.8

1996 1 29

2005 ING
13.6% 3.4%
2011 9 8,625
6,183 3,833
2010 2011 68 78
31
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356%

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2012.3.28

2012.1.16


60
9
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9 7 2
,


(2)

(3)

:
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2. 5%
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24


2.85
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-

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/

64.29%

16

90
210

50%+

50%

114

1%

2000
25
335

2012 5 25

2012 4 11

2012 5 28

15
14
13
12
11
10

2012 5 21

2.85

11.06 /

1. 2012 5 28

25

2011
2012 10 30

15



2007

2012 9


2007

53%

2.57
2012 9

()

000425.SZ
3+2 3

15

4.89%

AAA

AAA

2.3% 97.7%

53.38%

90,000
72,060
70,000

; 10%
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50,000

41,360

30,000

15.99%

; 12%
; 30%
; 15%
; 33%

21,580

10,000

: MSHX FID

: MSHX FID

26

2012 14
2012 10 19

14

14

2005

AA
14

BT

14

7.46%

3 5
20%

AA-

AA

10

; 9%

; 6%
; 11%

; 32%

; 12%

; 29%

: MSHX FID

27

2012 10 26


2012 10

AA+
AAA

2012
AA+/AA+
5

12 12

2012 8

5
10

5+5 5

5.50%

AA+

AA+

; 4% ; 13%
; 13%
; 71%

: MSHX FID
:

28

2012 10 26

17.3

2012 7 23

8 22
9 6
33


2012 10

3+2
2012 9
AAA
5+5
AAA

3+2 2.49
5+5 1.59

2012

10%

33

3+2 5+5

4.96%

3+2

; 15%

; 35%

; 50%

: MSHX FID

5+5
; 22%
; 78%

12 02
AAA/AAA
5.10%

4.3

8/8

AA+/AA+
:

8/23

9/7

9/22

AA+/AAA

12 03
AAA/AAA

5.10%

(%)

12 02
AA+/AA+
5.20%

12 01
AAA/AAA
5.10%

4.9

12 01
AA+/AAA
4.80%

7/24

AAA

5.3

11 02
AAA/AAA
4.89%

4.8

3.8
7/9

12 01
AA+/AA+
4.94%

12 01
AAA/AAA
4.99%

600236.SH
3+2 3 5+5 5

8.0
9.3
4.80%
5.10%

AA+
AAA

8 10% 90%

AAA
(%)
5.3

10/7

12 01
AAA/AAA
4.80%

10/22
AAA/AAA

12 02
AA+/AAA
5.10%

4.5
4.1
7/9

7/24

8/8

AA+/AA+

8/23

9/7

9/22

AA+/AAA

10/7

12 01
AAA/AAA
5.40%

12 01
AAA/AAA
5.09%

10/22
AAA/AAA

29


2012 10 31

20


2012 10


3 5 10


10
3 5

; 10%
; 5% ; 23%
; 62%
: MSHX FID

2012


2011
11%

3 5
10

(%)
5.3

12 02
AAA/AAA
5.10%

11 02
AAA/AAA
4.89%

4.8

3.8
7/9

12 01
AA+/AA+
4.94%

12 01
AAA/AAA
4.99%

8/8

AA+/AA+
:

8/23

9/7

9/22

AA+/AAA

5
12 03
AAA/AAA

5.10%

(%)
5.3

12 02
AA+/AA+
5.20%

12 01
AAA/AAA
5.10%

4.9

12 01
AA+/AAA
4.80%

7/24

AAA
AAA
3
5.9% 94.1%

9
3

4.3

;;20%
12%
; 26%
; 42%

0958.HK
3
5
10
3
11.4
8.6
5
4.80%
5.09%
-

10/7

12 01
AAA/AAA
4.80%

10/22
AAA/AAA

12 02
AA+/AAA
5.10%

4.5
4.1
7/9

7/24

8/8

AA+/AA+

8/23

9/7

9/22

AA+/AAA

10/7

12 01
AAA/AAA
5.40%

12 01
AAA/AAA
5.09%

10/22
AAA/AAA

30

LED

31

LED

LED
LED
LED

LED
2011
LED 4,000
1,560

LED

50

1999 450 2008 3000


LED
LED
2013 LED 489 40%

2011 LED

GAN LED

LED

990

710

%
71%

LED

570

390

69%

260

170

65%

1820

1270

70%

2008-2013 LED

2011 LED

600

1,400
50.0%
45.0%
1,200
36.0% 36.0%
40.0%
900.0 30.0%
1,000
27.0%
30.0%
800 25.0%
600.0
600
450.0
20.0%
300.0
400
250.0 285.0
204.0
200.0
185.0
10.0%
146.0 168.0
86.0
200
23.0
0
0.0%
10.0
2006 15.0
2007 19.0
2008
2009 50.0
2010
2011
1,210.0

100.0%
76.4%

500
400
200

60.0%

47.1%

300
20.1%
28.4%

27.6%

35.7%

40.0%
20.0%

100
0

2008
90.6

108.8
2009

80.0%

138.9
2010

188.4
2011

2012E
277.1

2013E
488.9

0.0%

2011 LED

32

LED

LED
LED

LED
2011 LED
149.29
LED 79.2%

LED

2011 LED

2011 1210
34%

25%

; 1%

; 25%

; 12%
; 6%
; 14%
; 18%
; 24%

LED

2011 LED

LED

3%

17%

79%

33

LED

LED

LED

2011 LED
32.77
LED
16.74


LED
2011

6.37

LED

LED

LED

2008-2013 LED

37.0%

250
200

25.5%

150

18.7%

22.3%

40.0%
30.0%

25.3%

24.2%

100
50
0

82.8
2008

98.3
2009

120.2
2010

149.3
2011

189.6
2012E

237.6
2013E

2008-2013 LED

120
80 225.0% 225.0%

20.0%

60

10.0%

40

0.0%

400.0%

20
0

295.7%

300.0%
269.2%

200.0%

23.5
0.1

0.4

1.6

1995

1996

1997

317.5%

312.8%

100

6.4
1998

1999

100.0%
2000
98.2

0.0%

2008-2013 LED

2008-2013 LED

200

139.5% 160.0%

120

150

120.0%

68.7%

100 67.2%
32.6%

50
0

7.7

10.1

17.0

1995

1996

1997

92.6%

95.1%
63.9

80.0%

32.8

1998

40.0%
1999

153.1
2000

0.0%

200.0%
148.1%

100
80
60

123.5%
101.7% 101.7%
112.2%

40
20
0

156.8%

1.8

3.5

7.9

1995

1996

1997

100.0%

43.0

50.0%

16.7
1998

150.0%

1999

106.6
2000

0.0%

34

LED

LED
LED
LED

, ,
LED

2007
285 2014
390

2009

13.2% 16.1% 18.9%


13.5%
2007
44 2009
54 2014
82
2009 2014
8.7%


2007 2014

2007 15.4%
2014 21%

LED
LED

LED

Globalization 2011

35

LED

LED
GT
ARC
TT
Donets

Vecoo
AIXTRON

Nikon

Alliedled

MOCVD

Oxford
OAI

ICP

IS
OUTKA

LED

IS

LED

Cree

LED

SiC

HMR

SiC

Namiki
Rubincon
STC

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LED

Si

GaAs/Ga
P

AlGalnP

GaN

SOITE
C

Cree

LED

LED / /
LED

36

LED

LED

LED

LED

LED

PMP

LED

2014
2012

LED

2007

2009

2005

LED

36800

40,000
29200

30,000

23200

20,000
10,000

12800

18400

8240

0
2009
2010

2011

2012(E) 2013(E) 2014(E)

LEDinside

37

LED

LED

LED

LED

LED

LED (GLII) LED


10
LED

38

LED


LED

LED

LED

LED

LED

LED

LED

LED
LED
LED
LED
LED LED

2012 LED

LED

LED

LED

LED

39

LED

LED

LED

2006

2006

2006

LED LED

2007

2007

2009

2015 30
20 50
70

2009

LED

2009

21

2009

2017

2010

2010

2011

2011

2011-2015

LED

2011

LED

2012

2012 10 1

40

41

2012 12 12
A
A

55.5


300296.SZ

LED

LED

LED

2012-03-15

3.62

31.37

002638.SZ

2011-11-25

10.57

55.81

300241.SZ

2011-07-12

2.65

26.54

300219.SZ

2011-05-18

4.66

32.04

LED

300162.SZ

2011-01-13

6.05

131.49

LED

2012 2011

131.5

140
120
100

55.5x

55.8

60
20

40%

80,000

32%

60,00050,241.0

80
40

100,000

31.4
19.4

24.3

34.2
26.5

32.0
21.3

39.4

40,000
20,000
0

TTM

24%
36,433.6
16%
29,137.8
26,375.0
25,723.8
25,308.9
17,626.6
14,786.7 8%

76,930.4
54,905.4

2011

2012

2011

2012

0%

42

300296.SZ

LED

LED

LED

LED
LED LED
LED

12%

2012 3 15
2,500

3.62

0.75

2011

16.00

31.37x

24.98

24.98

LED
- LED

LED

2012 10 31

/%

50

EPS/

40
30
20
10
0

2009

2010

2011 2012

29161.78

46685.69

50524.25

81170.16

8722.78

19482.51

25098.06

63418.15

70.09

58.27

50.32

21.87

24676.49

37049.26

50240.96

25308.92

7709.41

13326.53

16331.71

8327.13

31.24

35.97

32.51

32.90

1978.49

4173.39

5615.55

2734.09

0.33

0.69

0.75

0.31

( )

43

002638.SZ)

LED

863

LED

2011 11 25
4683.5

10.57
0.86

2011

24.00

55.81x

24.56

46.01

LED
2011

38.69% LED

LED

2012 12 12

/%

2009

40

EPS/

30
20
10
0

2010

2011 2012

80240.16 122275.30 239276.56

237375.29

40547.89

204192.70

85662.12 202223.34

49.47

29.94

15.49

13.98

42410.62

55228.30

76930.42

36433.59

13337.85

17888.60

26332.67

10942.55

31.45

32.39

34.23

30.03

6625.02

8089.04

12888.61

4489.39

0.59

0.64

0.86

0.12

( )

44

300219.SZ
SMD
LED
LED LED

LED

LED
LED

2011 07 12

2700

2.65
0.36

2011

10.80

18.85

20.17

LED

26.54x

LED LED

SMD LED

2012 12 12

/%

25

EPS/

20
15
10
5
0

2009

2010

2011 2012

20747.88

29642.53

57723.35

62777.64

15258.60

19657.91

49472.40

50391.74

26.46

33.68

14.29

19.73

18666.37

26160.80

29137.82

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4966.66

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4451.33

26.61

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2199.15

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3314.77

1989.34

1.10

0.55

0.36

0.19

( )

45

300219.SZ
LED

2010
LED

LED

2008-2010

2011 05 18
3,100

4.66

0.67

2011

16.00

32.04x

18.31

22.47

LED

2012 12 12

/%

25

EPS/

20
15
10
5
0

2009

2010

2011 2012

21168.33

38034.71

89664.27

91897.88

7700.91

18924.00

72986.45

75081.15

63.62

50.25

18.60

18.30

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43750.63

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25723.84

8588.09

15578.34

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8601.57

33.47

35.61

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2709.00

6324.47

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0.41

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0.13

( )

1. 2012 4 19 0.5 0.5

46

300162.SZ

LED


LED

2011 01 13
1,680

6.05

0.25

2011

38.00

131.49x

42.21

28.28

LED

LED
LED

2012 12 12

/%

50

EPS/

40
30
20
10
0

2009

2010

2011 2012

9668.45

22071.41

82791.30

83253.84

6475.26

10372.04

73548.55

74220.05

33.0269

53.0069

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10164.17

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2011.51

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48

49

A IPO

50

25.00%

2013

7.5-12

2.5-4.0

2014
2015

IPO

51

IPO

[2009]61

[2010]8

2007

LED



1,000
500
5,000
30%


2012 2013

LED

2,000
3,000

52

A IPO 2014

2013 12 31
2014 3
IPO

2014
12 31
2015 3
IPO
IPO

2014 12
2014 11
2014 9
2014 8
2014 3
2013 9
2013 9

IPO

2013 4
2013 2
2013 1

A IPO IPO

53

1.

a.

b.

a.
b. c.

54

2012-12-12

A LED

/EBITDA

2011

2012

2013
2012
2011

2013

300296.SZ

2012-03-15

11.66

9.30

14.49x

20.76x

002638.SZ

2011-11-25

34.51

22.08

12.68x

11.02 x

7.02

27.69x

20.97x

14.24x

300241.SZ

2011-07-12

14.13

11.66

25.68 x 14.17 x

8.93

42.64x

27.39x

19.31x

300219.SZ

2011-05-18

14.26

11.18

10.80 x 11.18 x

8.35

19.53x

18.75x

14.23x

300162.SZ 2011-01-13

13.53

9.02

26.21 x 19.60x

14.78

40.88x

30.76 x

28.80 x

17.97x

13.99x

9.77x 30.3x

24.47x

19.15x

14.49x

12.67x

8.64x 27.69x

24.18x

16.78x

26.21x

19.60x

14.78x 42.64x

30.76x

28.80x

10.80x

11.02x

7.02x 19.53x

18.75x

14.23x

55

24.8-30.8

2015

25%

2012 12 12

2012 1

30.8x

18.8x

31.0x( 24.8125%4)

24.8x

36.5x( 29.2125%4)
3

29.2x

0.0x

10.0x

20.0x

30.0x

40.0x

50.0x

60.0x

24.8 30.8

25x

27.5x

30x

0.30

7.50

8.25

9.00

0.35

8.75

9.63

10.50

0.40

10.00

11.00

12.00

1. 5 2012
2. 2001
3.
4. 25%
5. 2014 3,000 3,500 4,000

56

A IPO

57

A IPO
LED
LED

LED

LED


15%


3 3

58

A IPO
LED


LED

LED
LED

2011 5 [2011 28 ]
2012 10 1 100
2014 10 1 60 2016
10 1 15
LED

59

A IPO
LED

LED LED

LED
LED
LED

LED

LED


LED LED

60

A IPO

61

62

63

1.

64

65

66

A IPO

67

A IPO

IPO

68

A IPO

A
A

69

A IPO

A IPO

66

//

55

//

//

1.
2.
3. 10 30 2011 9

70

A IPO

71

A IPO

A
2012 9 30

2010 2011 A
IPO

100

86.2

80
60
40
21.9

21.0

20

18.1

15.9

7.4

8.5

2012 9

IPO

80
12.3

24.19

64.2

60

47.42

40

5.46
0.68
6.14

42.9

19.8

20

2007

26.7
28.2

2008

2009

2010

2011

47.5

0.68
1.37
13.7

10.23

2006
A

12.9

18.43

13.42
0

21.85

32.7

Bloomberg Dealogic

72

A IPO

A
A

2004

2009

,
2000

2012 1 4 100, 2012 10 31


140
: -0.1%

120
: -1.2%

100

: -2.3%

80

: -2.9%

60

73

A IPO

A IPO
2012 10 31

2009 A IPO

2009 A IPO

4910.6

5,000

400
3724.5

4,000

200

1878.9
1034

1,000

282

300

3,000
2,000

349

154
99

100
0

0
2009
Total

2010
IPO

2011

2012 1-10

IPO

2009
2010
2011
2012 1-10
Total IPO IPO IPO

74

A IPO

IPO
2012 10 31

2012 10
1,416
211,212
2012 1-10
26
92.3% 26
333.6
IPO 12.8
23.5

IPO

IPO

50

93.3%

92.3%

47

40
37

30

83.0%

26

20
15

10
0

2009

75.7%
2010

2011

2012 1-10

95%

2,500

90%

2,000

85%

1,500

80%

1,000

75%

500

70%

28

26

30
20
10

9
1,251.2

1,919.6

1,014.0

333.6

2009

2010

2011

2012 1-10

1
2012 10 31

50

40

39

46.4
36.3

40

39.2

30

15%

23.5

20

20%

10

39%

4%

22%

0
2009

2010

2011

2012 1-10

1.

75

A IPO

IPO
2012 10 31

2012 10
701
28,486
2012 1-10
82
73.2% 54
348.9
IPO 6.5
29.1

IPO

IPO

250

87.3%

200

82.7%

100

73.2%

71.1%

50
0

110

208

159

82

2009

2010

2011

2012 1-10

90%

2,500

85%

2,000

80%

150

75%
70%

1,000
500

60%

250

204

200

1,500

65%

150

115
54

54

423.6

2,027.7

1,019.0

348.9

2009

2010

2011

2012 1-10

54.6
45.3

2012 10 31

48

50

60

100

2%
5%

43.8

10%

36

29.1

24

6%

7%

12

70%

0
2009

2010

2011

2012 1-10

1.

76

A IPO

IPO
2012 10 31

2012 10
355
8,337
2012 1-10
117
78.6% 74
351.5
IPO 4.7
33.6

IPO

IPO

200

90%

150

85%

83.8%

100

79.7%

50

78.6%
117

139

74

2009

2010

2011

128

1,200
900

105

2012 1-10

80%

600

75%

300

70%

70
36

35

204.1

963.3

791.5

351.5

2009

2010

2011

2012 1-10

(1)
2012 10 31

64

62.6

80

140

117
74

81.3%
173

70.4
53.3
3% 3% 2%

48

33.6

32

4%
23% 4%

16

62%

0
2009

2010

2011

2012 1-10

1.

77

78

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