Group

Members
MUHAMMAD RAZA
IFTIKHAR AHMED
MUHAMMAD TAIMUR
MUBARAK ALI
ZEESHAN AHMED PATHAN

CHAPTER 6
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Uniform Probability Distribution

Normal Probability Distribution

Exponential Probability Distribution

f (x)

f (x) Exponential

Uniform
f (x) Normal

x
x
x

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS

A continuous random variable can assume any

value in an interval on the real line or in a
collection of intervals.

It is not possible to talk about the probability of

the random variable assuming a particular
value.
Instead, we talk about the probability of the

random variable assuming a value within a

given interval.

Continuous Probability Distributions

f (x)

The probability of the random variable

assuming a value within some given interval
from x1 to x2 is defined to be the area under
the graph of the probability density function
between x1 and x2.

f (x) Exponential

Uniform
f (x) Normal

x1 x2

x
x1
x1 x2

xx12 x2

UNIFORM PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
A random variable is uniformly distributed
whenever the probability is proportional to the
intervals length.
Uniform Probability Density Function

f(x) = 1/(b - a) for a < x < b

=0
elsewhere

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume

b = largest value the variable can assume

UNIFORM PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

Expected Value of x

E(x) = (a + b)/2

Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
where: a = smallest value the variable can assume
b = largest value the variable can assume

NORMAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
The normal probability distribution is the most
important distribution for describing a continuous
random variable.
It is widely used in statistical inference.

Normal Probability Distribution

It has been used in a wide variety of

applications:
Heights
Heights
of
of people
people
Scientific
Scientific
measurements
measurements

Normal Probability Distribution

It has been used in a wide variety of

applications:
Test
Test
scores
scores
Amounts
Amounts
of
of rainfall
rainfall

NORMAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

Normal Probability Density Function

1 (x )2 / 2 2
f (x)
e
2
where:

=
=
=
=

mean
standard deviation
3.14159
2.71828

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
The
The distribution
distribution is
is symmetric
symmetric;; its
its skewness
skewness
measure
measure is
is zero.
zero.

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
The
The entire
entire family
family of
of normal
normal probability
probability
distributions
distributions is
is defined
defined by
by its
its mean
mean and
and its
its
standard
standard deviation
deviation ..
Standard Deviation

Mean

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
The
The highest
highest point
point on
on the
the normal
normal curve
curve is
is at
at the
the
mean
mean,, which
which is
is also
also the
the median
median and
and mode
mode..

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
The
The mean
mean can
can be
be any
any numerical
numerical value:
value: negative,
negative,
zero,
zero, or
or positive.
positive.

x
-10

20

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
The
The standard
standard deviation
deviation determines
determines the
the width
width of
of the
the
curve:
curve: larger
larger values
values result
result in
in wider,
wider, flatter
flatter curves.
curves.

= 15

= 25
x

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
Probabilities
Probabilities for
for the
the normal
normal random
random variable
variable are
are
given
given by
by areas
areas under
under the
the curve
curve.. The
The total
total area
area
under
under the
the curve
curve is
is 11 (.5
(.5 to
to the
the left
left of
of the
the mean
mean and
and
.5
.5 to
to the
the right).
right).

.5

.5
x

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
99.72%
95.44%
68.26%

3
1
2

+ 3
+ 1
+ 2

STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION
AA random
random variable
variable having
having aa normal
normal distribution
distribution
with
with aa mean
mean of
of 00 and
and aa standard
standard deviation
deviation of
of 11 is
is
said
said to
to have
have aa standard
standard normal
normal probability
probability
distribution
distribution..

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The
The letter
letter zz is
is used
used to
to designate
designate the
the standard
standard
normal
normal random
random variable.
variable.

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution

x
z

We can think of z as a measure of the number of

standard deviations x is from .

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Standard Normal Density Function

1 z2 / 2
f (x)
e
2
where:
z

=
=
=

(x )/
3.14159
2.71828

STANDARD NORMAL PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION

Example: Pep Zone

Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies
including
a popular multi-grade motor oil. When the
stock of this oil drops to 20 gallons, a
Pep
replenishment order is placed.

Zone
5w-20

Motor Oil

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Example: Pep Zone

The store manager is concerned that sales
are being
lost due to stockouts while waiting for an order.
It has been determined that demand during
Pep
replenishment lead-time is normally
Zone
distributed with a mean of 15 gallons and
5w-20
Motor Oil
a standard deviation of 6 gallons.
The manager would like to know the
probability of a stockout, P(x > 20). (Demand
exceeding 20 gallons)

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep
Zone

Solving for the Stockout Probability

5w-20
Motor Oil

Step
Step 1:
1: Convert
Convert xx to
to the
the standard
standard normal
normal distributio
distributio
zz =
= ((xx -- )/
)/
=
= (20
(20 -- 15)/6
15)/6
=
= .83
.83
Step
Step 2:
2: Find
Find the
the area
area under
under the
the standard
standard normal
normal
curve
curve to
to the
the left
left of
of zz =
= .83.
.83.
see
see next
next slide
slide

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep
Zone
5w-20
Motor Oil

Cumulative Probability Table for

the Standard Normal Distribution

z
.

.00
.

.01
.

.02
.

.03
.

.04
.

.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054

.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995

.05
.

.06
.

.07
.

.08
.

.09
.

.7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224

.7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
.7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
.8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133

.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

P(z < .
83)

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep
Zone

Solving for the Stockout Probability

5w-20
Motor Oil

Step
Step 3:
3: Compute
Compute the
the area
area under
under the
the standard
standard normal
normal
curve
curve to
to the
the right
right of
of zz =
= .83.
.83.
PP((zz >
> .83)
.83) =
= 11 PP((zz <
< .83)
.83)
=
= 11- .7967
.7967
=
= .2033
.2033
Probability
of a
stockout

P(x >
20)

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep
Zone

5w-20
Motor Oil

Solving for the Stockout Probability

Area = .7967

Area = 1 - .7967
= .2033

0 .83

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep
Zone

5w-20
Motor Oil

Solving for the Reorder Point

Area = .9500
Area = .0500

z.05

NORMAL APPROXIMATION
TO THE BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION

OBJECTIVE
To

understand and know how to

calculate probabilities when asked to
use a Normal approximation to the
Binomial Distribution.

NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO A
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

To see why this result is valid, look at the

following slide and binomial distributions for p =
0.25 and n = 4, 10, 25 and 50. Notice that as n
increases, the histogram approaches a normal
curve.

EX. 1: APPROXIMATING THE

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION SOLUTION

1. Thirty-seven percent of Americans say they always fly

an American flag on the Fourth of July. You randomly
select 15 Americans and ask each if he or she always
flies an American flag on the Fourth of July.

In this binomial experiment, n = 15, p = 0.37 and

q = 0.63, so:
np = 15(0.37) = 5.55 and nq = 15(0.63) =
9.45
Because np 5 and nq 5, you can use the
normal distribution with = 5.55 and

npq 15 0.37 0.63 1.87

to approximate the distribution of x.

EX. 3: APPROXIMATING A BINOMIAL

PROBABILITY
Thirty-seven percent of Americans say they always fly an
American flag on the Fourth of July. You randomly
select 15 Americans and ask each if he or she flies an
American flag on the Fourth of July. What is the
probability that fewer than eight of them reply yes?

SOLUTION: From Example 1, you know that you

can use a normal distribution with = 5.55 and
1.87 to approximate the binomial distribution.
By applying the continuity correction, you can
rewrite the discrete probability P(x < 8) as P (x <
7.5). The graph on the next slide shows a
normal curve with = 5.55 and 1.87 and a
shaded area to the left of 7.5. The z-score that
corresponds to x = 7.5 is

CONTINUED . . .

x 7.5 5.55
z

1.04

1.87
Using the Standard
Normal Table,
P (z<1.04) = 0.8508
So, the probability that fewer than eight people
respond yes is 0.8508

THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

The exponential
distribution has a
number of useful
applications. For
example, we can use
it to describe arrivals
at a car wash or the
time it takes to load
a truck.

THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

Density
function

1 x /
f ( x) e
for x 0, 0

= mean
e = 2.71828

THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

Cumulative probabilities

P ( x x0 ) 1 e

x0 /

Where x0 is some specific value of x

EXAMPLE: ALS FULL-SERVICE

PUMP
The time between arrivals
of cars at Als full-service gas
pump follows an exponential
probability distribution
with a mean time between
arrivals of 3 minutes. Al would
like to know the probability
that the time between two
successive arrivals will be 2
minutes or less.

EXAMPLE: ALS FULL-SERVICE PUMP

Exponential Distribution
f(x)
-2/3 = 1 - .5134 =
< 2)
2) =
=1
1 -- 2.71828
2.71828-2/3
= 1 - .5134 = .4866
.4866
.4 PP((xx <

.3
.2
.1
1

x
9 10

Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE

POISSON
AND EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS
The Poisson distribution
provides an appropriate description
of the number of occurrences
per interval

The exponential distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the length of the interval
between occurrences

EXERCISE 27, P. 266

(a)
(b)
(c)

P( x x0 ) 1 e x0 / 3
P( x 2) 1 e 2 / 3 1 .5134 .4866

P ( x 3) 1 (1 e 3 / 3 )
1 (1 .3679) .3679

EXERCISE 27, P. 266: CONTINUED

(d)

(e)

P( x 5) 1 e 5 / 3 1 .1882 .8117
P (2 x 5) (1 e 5 / 3 ) (1 e 2 / 3 )
.8117 (1 .5124) .3241