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2014

/

, ,
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13651223976
15313781539
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office 229


Tel 18811586395
Email qdy14@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

+PPT







PPT


PPT
60
20 6 3 60

20
< >
1 1 1
3000

PPT 20
2 10

PPT

20
21

1 20

2. 21

; ;

3.





1000
:

:
, ,
, ,
, , ,
,

total revolution

(piecemeal
social engineering)

1989-1991

:
1944
,

,
:

, , ,
,
, ,
, . ,

, ,
.

: 1988

Nomocracy/teleocracy /

:
20

4.

1998

1950

1870

1800

1720

1640

1560

1480

1400

1320

1240

1160

1080

1000

920

840

760

680

600

520

440

360

280

200

120

1.

GDP (0-1998 %)

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

:

1661-1796

1/3


100
,

(1904-1905)



. ,
, . ,

?
, ,
,
, ,

(1904-1905)
/
, ,

, ,
, ,

,
,

,
, ,

, ,

(1904-1905)

( )
, ( ), ( )
,

1840

1898

1911 1919
1921

1927 1937-1945
1949

1966-1976

2001
1978

2010

20 :

2. :

/ :

:
:

90

,
,
,

:
/
50/60

(2006) (2016)

3.

35



1989 6

2011

(1950-2008)

Source: The Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre,
Total Economy Database, June 2009,http://www.conference-board.org/economics/


1979 2009

GDP

2000 2005
2010

89000 183000 401202


2011 GDP 471564
2012 GDP 519322 , GDP38852
2013 GDP 568845 , GDP42557
2013 436528

/ ( )


2000
2005
2010
2013


2000
12660
2005
30866
2010
77390
109220 2013

13395
31694
83080
129143

SIPRI 2011

17376

7114
1429
627
625
719
593

485
467
489
345
354
308

2005 GDP 16.8%

2006
2007 GDP 13%
2010 GDP 10.4%
GDP

GDP2020
2050 GDP 7
3.8 ( 2007-12-8 )

:
2012 953 A 14
54 500


2012 500 93069 186 77687
155 4080 8.2 622 1.24
2011 147
579 121

1978-2011 1.2 , 20
2012 24925 1117
2010 3172 178
1.8 1.5
2012 2953 , 652

10

2011 6800

2012


2012 2 2 5 50 18

53 33
7 3 2
1
2000 65
16 10
2011 4 21
2010 12%

71% 17%
38% 59%

0-10 10
31% (7-10 ) 74%


100

100

1. 1

. ,

:
,
,
.
,
. ,

2. 2

: ,
, , ,

2. 3

2. 4

, - ,

: ,

2. 5

3.

: :30 /60 /170 /5000


/ /

4.

1-10
1-5 1991/1977
1-3 1993/1994
1-3 2006

2010
1949-1976 2003
[ ] 2006
1975-1997 2004
1904-1974 2009
2012
1996
2000
2005
2008
2011

: ,
: ,1999/2000
: /
: 101 2002/
2010
[ ] 2002
[ ] 2005
[ ] 2007
[ ] 2008
[ ] 1992
[ ] 2003
[ ] 1988
[ ] : 2003
[ ] 2007
[ ] 2002
1999
1998
19491976 2008
2009

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