Section 8.

2
Basics of Hypothesis Testing

Objective
For a population parameter (p, , ) we wish
to test whether a predicted value is close to
the actual value (based on sample values).

Definitions
In statistics, a Hypothesis is a claim or
statement about a property of a population.
A Hypothesis Test is a standard procedure
for testing a claim about a property of a
population.
Ch. 8 will cover hypothesis tests about a
Proportion p
Mean ( known or unknown)
Standard Deviation
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Example 1
Claim: The XSORT method of gender selection
increases the likelihood of birthing a girl.
(i.e. increases the proportion of girls born)

To test the claim, use a hypothesis test (about

a proportion) on a sample of 14 couples:

If 6 or 7 have girls, the method probably doesnt

increase the probability of birthing a girl.
If 13 or 14 couples have girls, this method probably
does increase the probability of birthing a girl.

This will be explained in Section 8.3

Rare Event Rule for

Inferential Statistics
If, under a given assumption, the
probability of a particular event is
exceptionally small, we conclude the
assumption is probably not correct.
Example:
Suppose we assume the probability of pigs flying is 10-10
If we find a farm with 100 flying pigs, we conclude
our assumption probably wasnt correct
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Components of a
Hypothesis Test
Null Hypothesis: H0
Alternative Hypothesis: H1
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Null Hypothesis: H0
The null hypothesis (denoted H0)
is a statement that the value of a
population parameter (p, , ) is
equal to some claimed value.
We test the null hypothesis directly. It
will either reject H0 or fail to reject H0
(i.e. accept H0)

Example

H0: p = 0.6
H1: p < 0.6
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Alternative Hypothesis: H1
The alternative hypothesis (denoted H1)
is a statement that the parameter has a
value that somehow differs from the null
hypothesis.
The difference will be one of <, >,
(less than, greater than, doesnt equal)

Example

H0: p = 0.6
H1: p < 0.6
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Example 1
Claim: The XSORT method of gender selection
increases the likelihood of birthing a girl.

Let p denote the proportion of girls born.

The claim is equivilent to p>0.5
The null hypothesis must say equal to:

H0 : p = 0.5
The alternative hypothesis states the difference:

H1 : p > 0.5
Here, the original claim is the alternative hypothesis

Example 1

Continued

Claim: The XSORT method of gender selection

increases the likelihood of birthing a girl.
If we reject the null hypothesis, then the
original clam is accepted.
Conclusion: The XSORT method increases the
likelihood of having a baby girl.

If we fail to reject the null hypothesis, then the

original clam is rejected.
Conclusion: The XSORT method does not increase
the likelihood of having a baby girl.
Note: We always test the null hypothesis

Example 2
Claim: For couples using the XSORT method, the
likelihood of having a girl is 50%
Again, let p denote the proportion of girls born.
The claim is equivalent to p=0.5
The null hypothesis must say equal to:

H0 : p = 0.5
The alternative hypothesis states the difference:

H1 : p 0.5
Here, the original claim is the null hypothesis

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Example 2

Continued

Claim: For couples using the XSORT method, the

likelihood of having a girl is 50%
If we reject the null hypothesis, then the
original clam is rejected.
Conclusion: For couples using the XSORT method, the
likelihood of having a girl is not 0.5

If we fail to reject the null hypothesis, then the

original clam is accepted.
Conclusion: For couples using the XSORT method, the
likelihood of having a girl is indeed 0.5
Note: We always test the null hypothesis

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Example 3
Claim: For couples using the XSORT method, the
likelihood of having a girl is at least 50%
Again, let p denote the proportion of girls born.
The claim is equivalent to p 0.5
The null hypothesis must say equal to:

H0 : p = 0.5
The alternative hypothesis states the difference:

H1 : p < 0.5

we cant use or in the alternative

hypothesis, so we test the negation

Here, the original claim is the null hypothesis

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Example 3

Continued

Claim: For couples using the XSORT method, the

likelihood of having a girl is at least 50%
If we reject the null hypothesis, then the
original clam is rejected.
Conclusion: For couples using the XSORT method, the
likelihood of having a girl is less than 0.5

If we fail to reject the null hypothesis, then the

original clam is accepted.
Conclusion: For couples using the XSORT method, the
likelihood of having a girl is at least 0.5
Note: We always test the null hypothesis

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General rules
If the null hypothesis is rejected,
the alternative hypothesis is accepted.
H0 rejected H1 accepted

If the null hypothesis is accepted,

the alternative hypothesis is rejected.
H0 accepted H1 rejected

Acceptance or rejection of the null hypothesis

is called an initial conclusion.
The final conclusion is always expressed in
terms of the original claim. Not in terms of the
null hypothesis or alternative hypothesis.

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Type I Error
A Type I error is the mistake of rejecting
the null hypothesis when it is actually true.
Also called a True Negative
True: means the actual hypothesis is true
Negative: means the test rejected the hypothesis

The symbol (alpha) is used to represent

the probability of a type I error.
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Type II Error
A Type II error is the mistake of accepting
the null hypothesis when it is actually false.
Also called a False Positive
False: means the actual hypothesis is false
Positive: means the test failed to reject the hypothesis

The symbol (beta) is used to represent

the probability of a type II error.
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Type I and Type II Errors

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Example 4
Claim: A new medication has greater success rate (p)
than that of the old (existing) machine (p0)
p: Proportion of success for the new medication
p0: Proportion of success for the old medication
The claim is equivalent to p > p0
Null hypothesis:

H0 : p = p0

Alternative hypothesis:

H1 : p > p0

Here, the original claim is the null hypothesis

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Example 4

Continued

Claim: A new medication has greater success rate (p)

than that of the old (existing) machine (p0)
H0 : p = p0

Type I error

H1 : p > p0

H0 is true, but we reject it We accept the claim

So we adopt the new (inefficient, potentially harmful) medicine.
(This is called a critical error, must be avoided)

Type II error
H1 is true, but we reject it We reject the claim
So we decline the new medicine and continue with the old one.
(no direct harm)

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Significance Level
The probability of a type I error (denoted ) is
also called the significance level of the test.
Characterizes the chance the test will fail.
(i.e. the chance of a type I error)

Used to set the significance of a hypothesis test.

(i.e. how reliable the test is in avoiding type I errors)

Lower significance Lower chance of type I error

Values used most: = 0.1, 0.05, 0.01
(i.e. 10%, 5%, 1%, just like with CIs)

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Critical Region
Consider a parameter (p, , , etc.)
The guess for the parameter will have a probability
that follows a certain distribution (z, t, 2,etc.)
Note: This is just like what we used to calculate CIs.

Using the significance level , we determine the

region where the guessed value becomes unusual.
This is known as the critical region.
The region is described using critical value(s).
(Like those used for finding confidence intervals)
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Example
p follows a z-distribution
If we guess p > p0 the critical region is defined by the
right tail whose area is
t
If we guess p < p0 the critical region is defined by the
left tail whose area is
-t
If we guess p p0 the critical region is defined by the
two tails whose areas are /2
-t/2

t/2
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Testing a Claim Using a Hypothesis Test

1. State the H0 and H1
2. Compute the test statistic
Depends on the value being tested

3. Compute the critical region for the test statistic

Depends on the distribution of the test statistic (z, t, 2)
Depends on the significance level
Found using the critical values

4. Make an initial conclusion from the test

Reject H0 (accept H1) if the test statistic is within the critical region
Accept H0 if test statistic is not within the critical region

5. Make a final conclusion about the claim

State it in terms of the original claim

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Example 5
Claim: The XSORT method of gender selection
increases the likelihood of birthing a girl.
Suppose 14 couples using XSORT had 13 girls and 1 boy.
Test the claim at a 5% significance level

1. State H0 and H1

H0 : p = 0.5
H1 : p > 0.5

2. Find the test statistic

3. Find the critical region
4. Initial conclusion
5. Final conclusion

We accept the claim

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