Professional Documents
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Watch the costs and the profits will take care of themselves.
Andrew Carnegie
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Conventional Wisdom
Popular View: We are merely shifting to a service economy, the same way we
shifted from an agrarian economy to a manufacturing economy.
Statistic:
1929 agriculture employed 29% of workforce
1985 it employs 3%
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Measurement:
3% figure (roughly 3 million jobs) is by SIC
But, this does not include crop duster pilots, vets, etc.
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Tight Linkages
Economist View: linkages should not be considered when evaluating an
industry, since all of the economy is interconnected.
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Magnitudes
Production Side: Manufacturing represents roughly 50% of GNP in terms of
production.
Manufacturing represents 24% of GNP (directly)
Report of the President on the Trade Agreements Program estimates 25%
of GNP originates in services used as inputs by goods producing
industries.
Demand Side: Manufactured goods represent 47% of GNP (services are 33%)
in terms of final demand.
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Magnitudes (cont.)
$64,000 Question: Would half of the economy go away if manufacturing
were offshored?
some jobs (advertising) could continue with foreign goods
lost income due to loss of manufacturing jobs would have a serious
indirect multiplier effect
lost jobs would put downward pressure on overall wages
effect of loss of manufacturing sector on high-tech defense system?
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Ford
Toyota
Labor ($/vehicle)
Capital ($/vehicle)
WIP ($/vehicle)
$2,464
$3,048
$ 536
$ 491
$1,639
$ 80
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Takeaways
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Modeling Matters!
I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about,
and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when
you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager
and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but
have scarcely, in your thoughts, advanced to the stage of Science,
whatever the matter may be.
- Lord Kelvin
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Why Models?
State of world:
Data (not information!) overload
Reliance on computers
Allocation of responsibility (must justify decisions)
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15
10
15
$5
Product
Price
Max Weekly Sales
$20
Q
5
15
5 D
5 C
C
B
15
$20
P
Q
$90 $100
100 50
$20
15
10
B
A
$20
Machines A,B,C,D
Machines run 2400 min/week
fixed expenses of $5000/week
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Solution Approach:
Time on Machine A
15 X p 30 X q 2400
Time on Machine B
15 X p 5 X q 2400
Time on Machine C
15 X p 5 X q 2400
Time on Machine D
X p 100
Max Sales of P
X q 50
Max Sales of Q
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(*)
10 X q 2400
X q 240
30 X q 2400
X q 80
5 X q 2400
X q 480
A
B
C,D
15 X p 10(50) 2400
X p 126.67
15 X p 30(50) 2400
X p 60
15 X p 5(50) 2400
X p 143.33
X p 100
(*) B
C,D
X p 60
X q 50
Z 45(60) 60(50) 5000 700
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(*)
A
B
C
D
so make as much P as possible (i.e., set Xp =100, since this does not
violate any of the capacity constraints):
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15(100) 30 X q 2400
15(100) 5 X q 2400
A
X q 30 (*) B
C,D
X q 180
X q 90
X p 100
X q 30
Z 45(100) 60(30) 5000 1300
Outcome: This turns out to be the best we can do. But will this
approach always work?
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25
10
15
$5
C
A
$20
Product
Price
Max Weekly Sales
D
5
15
C
B
$20
P
Q
$90 $100
100 50
14
5
20
C
B
$20
D
15
10
B
A
$20
Machines A,B,C,D
Machines run 2400 min/week
fixed expenses of $5000/week
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45 X p 60 X q 5000
Weekly Profit
s.t.
15 X p 10 X q 2400
Time on Machine A
15 X p 35 X q 2400
Time on Machine B
15 X p 5 X q 2400
Time on Machine C
25 X p 15 X q 2400
Time on Machine D
X p 100
Max Sales of P
X q 50
Max Sales of Q
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Bottleneck Solution
Find Bottleneck:
15(100) 10(50) 2000 2400
15(100) 35(50) 3250 2400
15(100) 5(50) 1750 2400
25(100) 15(50) 3250 2400
A
(*) B
C
(*) D
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Possible Solutions
Make as much P as possible:
25 X p 2400
X p 96
15(96) 10 X q 2400
X q 96
15(96) 35 X q 2400
15(96) 5 X q 2400
25(96) 15 X q 2400
A
X q 27.43 B
C
X q 192
D
Xq 0
X p 96
Xq 0
Z 45(96) 60(0) 5000 680
Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000
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X q 87.5
X p 126.67 A
15 X p 35(50) 2400
X p 43.33
15 X p 5(50) 2400
25 X p 15(50) 2400
B
X p 143.33 C
D
X p 66
X p 43.33
X q 50
Z 45(43.33) 60(50) 5000 50
Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000
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Another Solution
Make Xp =73, Xq =37: (Where in the heck did these come from? A model!)
A
B
C
D
Conclusions:
Modeling matters!
Beware of simplistic solutions to complex problems!
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Ecclesiastes
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Conclusion:
Manufacturing must be viewed within sweep of history.
There is no technological silver bullet.
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Cultural Canvas
Wide-Open Spaces:
Finance and Marketing are king in the ``land of the cowboy''
Materials management is much more respectable in Europe and Japan
Identity Crisis:
Cultural icons --- freedom, manifest destiny, rugged individualist, cowboys.
Legends --- Davy Crocket, Mike Fink, Abe Lincoln as the rail-splitter
president
Businessmen term themselves gunslingers, white knights, Masters of
the Universe
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Technological Breakthroughs
1733 flying shuttle
1765 spinning jenny
1769 water frame
1765 steam engine
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1840's: Coal became widely available, as did inexpensive pig iron. Trend
toward larger plants using interchangeable parts to manufacture watches,
clocks, safes, locks, pistols,
1850-1880: Rise of railroads, steamships and telegraph provided reliable allweather transport for raw materials and finished goods. Made mass markets
possible for first time.
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By 1900: America was clearly leading the world in large-scale mass production.
By WWII: America had more large scale business enterprises than the rest of
the world combined.
Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000
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iron rails
wire
glass
fabric,
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U.S. Production
8,500 tons
9,138,000 tons
Year
1870
1890
British Production
111,000 tons
1,862,000 tons
Price of Rails
$100/ton
$12/ton
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Continual Improvement:
single model (Model T)
Year
1908
1916
1920s
Price of Model T
$850
$360
$250
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GM Market Share
12.3%
31.3%
18.9%
Legacy: Virtually all large companies today are structured according to either:
Du Pont Model: centralized functional department organization (single
product line in single market)
GM Model: multidivisional decentralized structure (multiple product lines
or markets)
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Espionage:
First American textile plants based on stolen plans.
Japanese reverse engineered American products.
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Scientific Management
Management is as old (older?) as the pyramids.
Management as a field worthy of study dates back only to the turn of the
century. Before this, enterprises were not large and complex enough to
require more than common-sense, forceful leadership.
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Reductionist Framework:
Underlies OR/MS paradigm.
Decades of scheduling research with no applications.
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Evolution of Management
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The Future
Getting Back to Basics:
efficiency studies
quality control
improved material handling
streamlined layout
i.e., classic IE
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