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IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014

Chris Field & Vicente Barros


IPCC Working Group II

CLIMATE CHANGE
UNDERSTANDING,
MANAGING, &
REDUCING RISKS

IMPACTS

EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change

IMPACTS

EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change

Warming over the past century

Based on WGII Figure SPM 4

OBSERVED IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ARE WIDESPREAD
AND CONSEQUENTIAL

YIELD IMPACT
(% Change per Decade)

-2
90th Percentile

-4

75th Percentile
Median

-6

25th Percentile

Wheat

Soy

Rice

Maize

10th Percentile

CROP TYPE

WGII Figure SPM 2

VULNERABILITY
AND
EXPOSURE
AROUND
THE WORLD

PEOPLE, SOCIETIES,
AND ECOSYSTEMS
AROUND THE WORLD

VULNERABLE
AND EXPOSED
IN DIFFERENT WAYS

ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURRING

ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURRING

INCREASING MAGNITUDES
OF WARMING INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF

SEVERE AND
PERVASIVE IMPACTS

Warming over the 21st century

Based on WGII Figure SPM 4

Warming over the 21st century


1901-2012

End of 21st
century

Based on WGII Figure SPM 4

CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B)


<50%

-21 50%

-6 20%

-1 5%

No data

0 4%

5 19%

20 49%

50 100%

>100%

Levels of Risk and Potential for Adaptation

Risk Level
Very
Low

Med

Very
High

Present
Near Term (2030-2040)
Long Term
(2080-2100)

2C
4C

Risk Level with


High Adaptation

Risk Level with


Current Adaptation

Potential for
Additional Adaptation to
Reduce Risk

Key Risks Around the World


POLAR REGIONS

HEALTH

ECOSYSTEMS

Very
Low

RATE OF CHANGE

Risk-Level

Very
High

Med

Present
Near Term (2030-2040)
Long Term 2C
(2080-2100) 4C

Potential for
Additional
Adaptation to
Reduce Risk

Risk Level with


High Adaptation

NORTH AMERICA

WILDFIRES

HEAT

Risk Level with


Current Adaptation

EUROPE

FLOODS
HEAT

FLOODS

ASIA

WATER
FLOODS

HEAT

DROUGHT

THE OCEAN
AFRICA

WATER

FISHERIES
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

SMALL ISLANDS

WATER

CORALS

FOOD

CORALS

AUSTRALASIA

LIVELIHOODS

FOOD
COASTS

FLOODS

HEALTH
HEALTH

COASTS

COASTS

Based on WGII AR5 Box


SPM.2

entral and South America

Water availability;
flooding and land
slides
Decreased food
security &
agricultural income
Spread of vectorborne diseases

A global perspective on risks

Based on WGII Box SPM 1


Figure 1

Based on WGII
Box SPM 1
Figure 1

Small-scale, unique, nonmarket

Based on WGII
Box SPM 1
Figure 1

Extremes

Based on WGII
Box SPM 1
Figure 1

Unfairness of impacts

Uneveness spatially and temporally

Challenges of resolution

Based on WGII
Box SPM 1
Figure 1

An aggregate view

Next generation of economic estimates?

Next generation of non-economic estimates?

Based on WGII
Box SPM 1
Figure 1

Abrupt and irreversible changes

Long timeframes, large uncertainties

Based on WGII
Box SPM 1
Figure 1

EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE RESPONSES
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD

Socioeconomic
pathways
Adaptation
&
Diverse
values &
Interactions
objectives
with
Mitigation

Vulnerability &
Exposure
Vulnerability & exposure
reduction
Low-regrets strategies &
actions
Addressing
multidimensional
CLIMATE
inequalities

IMPACTS

Vulnerability
Vulnerability

Natural
Variability

Anthropogenic
Climate Change

Socioeconomic
Pathways
Anthropogenic
Climate Change

Hazards

Risk
RISK

Exposure

Risk
Risk assessment
Iterative risk
management
Anthropogenic
Risk perception

Climate
Change

Mitigation

Climate &
resilient
Incremental
pathways
transformational
adaptation

Transformation
Co-benefits, synergies, &
trade-offs
SOCIOECONOMIC
Context-specific
adaptation
PROCESSES
Complementary actions

Exposure

Adaptation and
Mitigation Actions

Socioeconomic
Pathways
Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions

Governance
Governance

Governance
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change

Decision- making
under uncertainty
Learning, monitoring,
& flexibility
Coordination across
scales

CLIMATE CHANGE
UNDERSTANDING,
MANAGING, &
REDUCING RISKS

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