-X- S&P 500 mini Futures (180 min.

)
(Z)
“c” We’re now starting to get a -y- wave in better time balance with the -w-, which took 88 bars to complete. It would
be some technical perfection to see this -y- conclude at 54-55 bars (61.8% of -w-) and at a price of 1129, the
61.8% of -w- = -y-. Am I asking for too much? Yes, but we can dream, can’t we?

-y-
1129

-w-
(c)
1113

(b)

It’s very difficult to see

(a) an “impulse” in this blue
1084.5 box, which makes it very
(c) difficult for me to call the
move up from 1084.5 an
-x- “impulse,” as so many
Only Three Waves
others are trying to do.
Down from the Top (a)

(b)

1440.5
a

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 mini Futures (60 min.)
b
-y-
(g)
[b]
(e) [d]

[e]
[a]
[c] (f)
(c)

(a)

(d)

(b)
It’s really difficult to determine what exactly the pattern is up from 1084.5. Maybe it is an impulse, but it would
require me to really torture the middle part of this wave to turn it into an impulse. Even the (a) wave, while
impressive looking, was difficult to peg as an “impulse” on the very small scales. I’m going with the “unorthodox”
diametric pattern, just because the “bowtie” resemblance does jump out. It doesn’t really matter too much.
What does seem clear is that the pattern I’m labeling an (f) wave looks like a triangle. The thrust up from the [e]
conclusion should take conclude between 1129 and 1131. So, this b-wave does appear on the verge of
1084.5 concluding soon.
-x-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 mini Futures (180 min.)
(Z) We were looking for some resistance into the 1125 to 1129 zone. What we’re seeing doesn’t classify as a
“c” “reversal,” but the market is respecting this area as buying pressure has slowed down. The -y- structure from
1084.5 is very difficult to categorize at this point. It’s NOT an impulsive move--that’s all I know for sure. Which
means that it must be a correction of some kind. It resembles one of those “unorthodox” diametric (bowtie)
patterns that we’ve discussed before. I’m looking for some sort of reversal lower within the next 24 hours.

-y-
1129
-w-
(c)
[5]
All of this previous support 1113
should now be considered Reprinted from 3/3/2010
resistance: 11251129 [3]
(b)

[4]
(a)
[1] 1084.5
(c)
[2] -x-
The move lower from the highs was clearly
“corrective” in nature and not an “impulse.” (a)
Can you legitimately see five waves down
from the peak?

(b)

Many people are attempting to call the move up from 1440.5 an “impulse,”
but it’s very difficult to make that case because of how the move began.
1440.5 The mess of corrective congestion that kicked it off does not fit as a 1-2
a

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (Daily)

Over the last few weeks we had been thinking the DXY would “slow z of “d”
down” under the weight of all the new bullish sentiment and extreme
short positions in currencies like the Euro, the Swissy and the Pound. It -c-?
retrospect, that was an “easy call.” This market is not really showing any y -a-
signs of peaking action yet, which should be worrisome for DXY bears. If -g-
“d” wave is to alternate in time with “b,” this wave still has a couple of 80.68
weeks to go. 81.70 remains a prime target for the “d” wave.

-b-?
-e- 79.53
KEY SUPPORT
w X2?
-c-
-c-
-f-

-d-
-a-

-b-
-a- 76.60

-b- x1

DXY bulls should not get too concerned until 79.53 gets violated. A break
of that key support should send this market into a deeper correction.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (A)
“c” Smith and Wesson [SWHC] ~ Daily
$7.52

“b”

“d”

$5.21

“a”

“e”
“c” (B)
“a”
$3.29
b
d
We highlighted Smith and Wesson a couple of times this year as one of the few stocks we liked, at
$4.00. There’s a good chance that SWHC has completed an intermediate (B) wave and is now
launching into a powerful (C). A triangle does appear to have concluded at $4.16, so this area is
e now key support for bullish positions. The risk for bulls is that the market is merely filling the gap left
“b” at $5.21. Breaking above $5.21 would be a strong statement for the bullish technical case as it
c would also snap the “b”-”d” downtrend line.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 (A) Smith and Wesson [SWHC] ~ Daily
“c”
$7.52

“b”
Reprinted from 2/12/2010

“d”

“a”

“c” “e”
Interesting how its finding support at an EXACT 61.8% (B)
“a”
$3.29
b
d
I’ll periodically post on Smith and Wesson because, quite frankly, I love the look of this entire
pattern. It’s entirely possible that this (B)-wave takes longer to complete, but the whole pattern from
the $7.52 highs looks VERY corrective in nature--meaning, we should get another big leg up at
e some point. So, either SWHC will prove the point that Wave Analysis does not work well on stocks,
and this equity will break my heart, or SWHC will launch very powerfully higher in the not distant
“b” future.
c
a

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
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