Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Brad Lyon
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Time Horizons, Climate and Decisions
• Projections of how the climate may change by the end of the 21st Century are
not especially helpful for making decisions now in climate-sensitive sectors
• Past climate history can play a role in assessing possible near-term changes in
the climate (“Near-Term Climate Change”)
• How climate change projections can be used for this purpose is an active area
of research… quantifying the uncertainties is a very difficult challenge
Example #1: Upward Trend in Temp. in Kenyan Highlands?
Assessing recent trends in climate presents its own challenges
Points to the need to collaborate with in-region partners, analyze local data
Example #2: Downward Trend in Rainfall in the Greater Horn
March-April-May 2009
“Climate change” or
Shorter-term trend?
Mar-Apr-May Seasons
“DRY” “WET”
Using Historical Data to Estimate Range of Future Climate
Observed Rainfall
35
33
31 1
Rainfall (mm/mo)
29
27
25
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090
Using Historical Data to Estimate Range of Future Climate
WET
37
WET WET
35
33
31 1
Rainfall (mm/mo)
29
27
DRY DRY
25
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090
Using Historical Data to Estimate Range of Future Climate
37
35
33
1
31
2
Rainfall (mm/mo)
29
1
39
27 2
37 3
25 4
35
5
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090 6
33
7
31
8
Rainfall (mm/mo)
39
29 9
10
37
27 11
35
25 12
13
33 1
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090 14
2
31 3
Rainfall (mm/mo)
29
27
25
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090
Using Historical Data to Estimate Range of Future Climate
1
39
2
37 3
4
35
5
33 6
7
31
8
Rainfall (mm/mo)
29 9
10
27 11
25 12
13
2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 2062 2066 2070 2074 2078 2082 2086 2090 14
Duration (yrs)
WET DRY
Longest 10
8
Average
6
4
Shortest
2
Climate Projections Based on Land & Ocean “Coupled Models”
Graphic: NOAA
Climate Projections Based on Estimates of Future What
Future Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Will Be
Simply choosing the model grid point nearest the location of interest and using that
“raw” data to examine possible future changes in climate is NOT a reliable strategy…
It is not Uncommon for Climate Models to be in Disagreement
EXAMPLE: Model Change in Annual Rainfall (2085-2100 minus 1971-2000)
mm/day
“DRY” “WET”
Projected PRCP Changes (2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
% Change in Annual PRCP
21 Models
from IPCC # Models Annual PRCP > 0
AR4
Oct-Nov-Dec Rainfall 1997