Structural uncertainty modeling

Objectives

Generate simulation base case with bulk volume above OWC

Depth error and Standard deviation estimation for horizons and zones
Depth error and Standard deviation estimation at well positions
Structural uncertainty simulation workflow
Adding uncertainty to 3D model horizons and zones
Structural uncertainty and the influence on reservoir volume
Uncertainty results Histogram plots

Structural uncertainty simulation workflow

Build the reservoir structural model
Define Horizon zones contact
Calculate the bulk volume above
OWC or GWC
Load the volume case into the
Uncertainty and optimization
process
Set up the uncertainty parameters
for horizons and zones. Run the
process
View the result in a Histogram
window

Generate simulation base case with bulk volume

above OWC
1

1. Under Utilities, open up Volume

calculation and create a new case
2. Select the structural 3D grid

3. Drop in oil water contact from Fluid

contacts under the 3D grid
4. Go to Settings tab then Output subtab, tick mark Bulk volume and click
on Report settings icon
5. In Volumetrics settings window
toggle on Bulk volume and click OK
6. Click Run to generate the base
simulation case with bulk volume
stored in the Cases pane

Explanation of the normal (Gauss) distribution

Normal distribution
The data is symmetrically scattered around a
mean value. The distribution can be described
by two parameters: mean and standard
deviation
Meaning of standard deviation
67% of simulated data lies
within 1*Std Dev
95% of simulated data lies
within 2* Std Dev
99.7% of simulated data lies
within 3* Std Dev

1
Std.Dev

2
3

Error probability
P5 means: there is a 5% chance that the error is
smaller than -49ft and a 95% chance that the
error is larger than -49ft

Error statistics:
Mean: 0ft
Standard Dev.: 28

P50 means: there is a 50% chance that the

error is smaller than 0ft; and a 50% chance that
the error is larger than 0ft.

Gauss
distribution of
error

Gauss distribution delivers:

P5

P10

P50

-49ft -40ft 0

P90

P95

40ft

49ft

Depth error estimation at a specific horizon

1. Run a velocity model with three
intervals, CARACAS, HOUSTON and
KOBE

1
2

2. Use Well tops as correction and

select Add Residual on well tops
3. Select None in the Correction part
4. Open Settings for the residual points
for the velocity run which is attached
to Well tops

5. Obtain the Std. Dev value from the

Statistics tab

5
4

Depth error estimation at a well position

1. Run a velocity model with three
intervals, Caracas, Houston and
Kobe

1
2

2. Use Well tops as correction and

select Add Residual on well tops
3

3. Select Adjust in the Correction part

Depth error estimation at a well position Saved

searches
4. Make a saved search selecting all
wells except one well
4
5. Use the saved search as a filter in
Make velocity model process

6. Open Settings for the residual

points for the velocity run which is
attached to Well tops

7. Obtain the Std. Dev value at the

specific well position from the
Statistics tab

7
6

Depth error estimation for a specific zone

1. Expand Stratigraphy under Well
tops, activate HOUSTON_BASE,
right click on HOUSTON and select
Convert to isochore points

2. A new points set will be generated

and stored in Input pane, namely
HOUSTON - HOUSTON_BASE
3. Open Settings for the Thickness
attribute attached to the points set
4. Obtain the Std. Dev value for the
specific zone from the Statistics tab