PIPELINE QRA SEMINAR

PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT

SOFTWARE/TOOLS FOR RISK
ASSESSMENT

SOFTWARE/TOOLS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

Different software/tools for QRA

Tools (hand calculations) versus software

Tools (hand calculations) actually manual development

of simplified software (typically Excel)

There are software/tools also for qualitative risk

assessment (e.g. linked to different methods
HAZID/HAZOP)

Focus on software/tools for QRA

SOFTWARE/TOOLS FOR QRA

Advantages of tools (hand calculations)

Simple (understanding and execution)

Flexibility

Disadvantages of tools (hand calculations)

Standardization (i.e. do we always calculate in the same way?)

Size and presentation (i.e. number of documents/sheets)

SOFTWARE/TOOLS FOR QRA

Advantages of software

More advanced (often)

Accepted (e.g. could be recommended from authorities)

Disadvantages of software

Black-box (often)

Non-flexible (e.g. change of parameters)

SOFTWARE FOR QRA

Software/tools established by consultant companies,

authorities, companies (e.g. oil and gas industry and
process industry) and software companies

Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity,

stage of project and time)

Software:
SAFETI from DNVGL
QRA Open from Taylor Associates ApS

Economical and technological aspects (e.g. costs for

license and knowledge of the software)

Shepherd from Shell

No single best software/tool to solve all problems

Riskcurves from TNO

SOFTWARE FOR QRA

Same, same. But different!

Similarities in presentation

Differences in way of calculations/models (exact

differences hard to establish, since often black-box)

SOFTWARE: SAFETI

Software from DNVGL

Specialized for onshore process facilities and

petrochemical facilities

Used frequently in the oil- and gas industry (e.g. BP,

Total, Maersk and Shell)

Connected to the PHAST software

SOFTWARE: SAFETI

How does it work?

- Accident scenarios (e.g. PHAST and frequencies)

- Population
- Weather conditions
- Ignition sources
- Quantification of the risk (i.e. individual risk and group
risk)

Compare with presented methodology for quantitative

risk assessment

SOFTWARE: SAFETI
Advantages of PHAST

Easy to get some quick results from (compared to

others)

Interface (i.e. easy to understand and present)

Disadvantages of PHAST

Black-box (i.e. what happens in the model and change

of parameters)

TOOLS FOR QRA

Tools (and guidelines/standards) established by

consultant companies, organizations, authorities and
companies (e.g. oil and gas industry and process
industry)
General difference - two categories of tools:

- Scoring systems (i.e. simple ranking of pipeline segments)

- Traditional QRA (i.e. general methodology)

Standalone versus included in larger risk management

framework

Guidelines/standards:
Pipeline systems - Steel pipelines on land Guide to the application of pipeline risk
assessment to proposed developments in the
vicinity of major accident hazard pipelines
containing flammables (BS PD 8010-3:2009)
(part of framework BS PD 8010-1:2004) from
British Standards
Assessing the risks from high pressure natural
gas pipelines (IGEM/TD/2)
from Institution of Gas Engineers and
managers

TOOLS FOR QRA

Detailed difference - three categories of tools:

- Generic values for leakages

- Possibility to modify values for leakage to account for
special properties and situation (e.g. corrosion)
- Possibility to modify values for leakage to account for
special properties and situation (e.g. corrosion) as well as
including of external hazards (e.g. 3rd party interference
and similar)

What is best? Depending on the situation (e.g.

complexity). Most important to be aware of what is
included and what is not included.

TOOLS FOR QRA

How is a QRA carried out?

EXAMPLE OF QRA

EXAMPLE OF QRA
Ringsted, Denmark
- 30 gas pipeline
- 80 bar
- 12 mm
- exposed
- no construction work or agricultural work allowed within 50
meters from the pipeline
- shopping centre (opening hours 08.00-20.00) at 100 meters
- parking lot between shopping centre and pipeline

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What could go wrong?

- Internal corrosion (expected problems with impurities)

- External corrosion (noted damages to protection from
installation)

As detailed as want (e.g. is the restriction on

construction work followed and possible natural hazards)

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What is the frequency for the different scenarios?

Where could we find information?

Riser & pipeline release frequencies from International

Association of Oil- and Gas Producers (OGP)

EXAMPLE OF QRA

Riser & pipeline release frequencies from International

Association of Oil- and Gas Producers (OGP)

- 8.1 x 10-5 per km-year (12 mm wall thickness)

- 18% are medium holes (75 mm hole)

Frequency for specified scenario:

- 1.5 x 10-5 per km-year

Just one of several scenarios!

Click icon to add picture

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What is the consequence from the different scenarios?

Choice: human safety fatalities

What do we need to consider?

- Gas cloud - flash fire (extent and radiation from)

- Jet fire (radiation from)
- Pin hole
- Rupture
- Large hole

EXAMPLE OF QRA

As detailed as want (e.g. are there some of the

combinations we can exclude?)

What do we need to consider?

- Gas cloud - flash fire (extent and radiation from)

- Jet fire (radiation from) (excluded)
- Pin hole (excluded)
- Rupture
- Large hole

Remember all scenarios quantified (increasing effort)!

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What scenario?
Gas cloud - flash fire (extent)
Large hole (75 mm)
LFL and LFL
All inside a cloud would be fatalities (>37.5 kW/m2)
Just one of several scenarios!

EXAMPLE OF QRA

Combine the frequency for the scenario and the

consequence for the scenario to get the actual risk

What do we know?

- With the frequency 1.5 x 10-5 per year there will be a

release of gas from the pipeline and the cloud will enclose
the parking lot

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What do we not know?

- Exposure (e.g. how often are there people in the parking

lot and how many people are there in the paring lot)
- Ignition (i.e. what is the probability of ignition of the gas)
- Weather conditions (e.g. how often wind towards the
parking lot)

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What do we not know?

- Exposure in average 50 persons in the parking lot from

08.00 to 20.00 every day and a parking guard there 5 days
a week between 07.30 and 20.30
- Ignition 50% probability of ignite the gas due to the
cars at the parking lot and the electrical signs on the
shopping centre
- Weather conditions 10% probability of wind towards the
parking lot (defined as south) due to prevailing wind east

EXAMPLE OF QRA

Combine the frequency for the scenario and the

consequence for the scenario to get the actual risk
(considerations for the parking guard)

- Frequency x ignition x wind x exposure (individual)

- 1.5 x 10-5 x 0.5 x 0.1 x 0.39 per year
-

2.9 x 10-7 per year

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What does this mean?

- With the frequency 2.9 x 10-7 per year there will be a

release of gas from the pipeline, the cloud will enclose the
parking lot, the cloud will ignite and the parking guard will
be present (fatality)
- The individual risk (for the parking guard) from this
scenarios is 2.9 x 10-7 per year

Just one of several scenarios!

Just one of several scenarios!

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What about the group risk?

- With the frequency 2.9 x 10-7 per year there will be a

release of gas from the pipeline, the cloud will enclose the
parking lot, the cloud will ignite and in average 50 persons
will be present (fatalities)

EXAMPLE OF QRA

Is the risk (from this scenario) acceptable?

Risk acceptance criteria for individual risk

1.0 x 10-6 (Danish legislation) YES!

Risk acceptance criteria for group risk

- (see figure) (Danish legislation) MAYBE!

- Separate presentation on ALARP
- Most likely not given contribution from other scenarios

EXAMPLE OF QRA

QRA is a tool to evaluate and support what in the end

are political decisions whether to proceed with
construction/design (or similar) within questionable,
high-risk and/or consequence areas

Could have a high consequence and a high frequency,

but anyway an acceptable risk

EXAMPLE OF QRA

Even the smallest QRA has large complexity

What has been simplified in this QRA?

- Wind directions (e.g. 4 or 16?)

- Wind speed (i.e. consequences different)
- Ignition probabilities (e.g. models or ignition sources)
- Frequency (i.e. just considered one scenario)
- Consequence (i.e. just considered one scenario)
- Simplified population (e.g. cars on the road and residents)
- Release frequency given per kilometre (e.g. not all releases within
kilometres would give consequences within 1 kilometre)

EXAMPLE OF QRA

How is a QRA carried out?

EXAMPLE OF QRA

What is the challenges of quantitative risk assessment?

- Uncertainty (i.e. the risk could be something that has

never happened before)
- Statistic (i.e. availability)
- Assumptions big effect (e.g. sensitivity analysis)
- Complexity (i.e. how much could/should be included?)
- Ideal model (e.g. would people move from a release?)

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QUESTIONS?

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