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Session 3: Distributions
PGP 13-15
Learning Objectives
In this session, you will learn:
Distinguish between discrete random variables and
continuous random variables.
Know how to determine the mean and variance of a
discrete distribution and continuous distributions.
Identify the type of statistical experiments that can be
described by discrete distribution and continuous
distributions, and know how to work such problems.
Random variables
Random
Variables
Discrete
Random Variable
Continuous
Random Variable
What is a distribution?
Why Distribution?
can serve as a basis for standardized
Distributions
Discrete distributions
Binomial Distribution
Hyper geometric Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Continuous Distribution
Normal Distribution
Uniform Distribution
Beta Distribution (t, F, Chi square)
Exponential Distribution
exhaustive categories
ex. head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not
the other
Binomial distribution
Take the example of 5 coin tosses. Whats the
probability that you flip exactly 3 heads in 5 coin
tosses?
X=#
successes
out of n
trials
p (1 p )
n X
1-p = probability
of failure
p=
probability of
success
20
10
10
10
(.5) (.5) .176
20
20
0
20
(.5) (.5)
19
(.5) (.5)
20!
2
18
(.5) (.5)
1.8 x10 4
20!
(.5) 20 9.5 x10 7
20!0!
20!
(.5) 20 190 x9.5 x10 7 1.8 x10 4
18!2!
E(x) np
2 np (1 - p )
np (1 - p )
Applications
A manufacturing plant labels items as either
defective or acceptable
A firm bidding for contracts will either get a
contract or not
A marketing research firm receives survey responses
of yes I will buy or no I will not
New job applicants either accept the offer or reject it
Your team either wins or loses the football game at
the company picnic
P( X )
N A
n X
N
Where
N = population size
A = number of successes in the population
N A = number of failures in the population
n = sample size
X = number of successes in the sample
n X = number of failures in the sample
N A
4 6
2 1
n X
(6)(6)
0.3
N
120
10
3
n
nA
N
Where
nA(N - A) N - n
2
N
N -1
N-n
N - 1 is called the Finite Population Correction Factor
person
ex. The number of computer crashes in a day
An example
Suppose that, on average, 5 cars enter a parking lot
0.104
X!
7!
So, there is a 10.4% chance 7 cars will enter the
Continuous Distribution
A continuous random variable is a variable that can assume
f(X)
deviation,
Area to right and left of mean is 1/2.
The random variable has an infinite
theoretical range: - to +
Mean
= Median
= Mode
function is
1
f(X)
e
2
1 (X )
Sigma understanding of a NC
q = 99.7 %
What is a Sigma
level?
is performing.
Higher is better
Measures the capability of the process to
perform defect-free work
Also known as z, it is based on standard
deviation for continuous data
Finding Probabilities
Probability is the area
under the curve!
P c X d ?
f(X)
Table Lookup of a
Standard Normal Probability
P( 0 Z 1) 0. 3413
Z
0.00
0.01
0.02
-3
-2
-1
Standardized Normal
Distribution
Cumulative Standardized Normal
Distribution Table (Portion)
.00
.01
Z 0
Z 1
.02
.5478
Shaded Area
Exaggerated
Probabilities
0
Z = 0.12
Standardizing Example
X 6.2 5
Z
0.12
10
Standardized
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
10
Z 1
6.2
Z 0
0.12
Example:
X 2.9 5
Z
.21
10
X 7.1 5
Z
.21
10
Standardized
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
10
.0832
Z 1
.0832
2.9
7.1
0.21
Z 0
0.21
Example:
.00
.01
Z 0
Z 1
.02
.5832
Shaded Area
Exaggerated
0
Z = 0.21
Example:
.00
.01
.02
Z 0
Z 1
.4168
Shaded Area
Exaggerated
0
Z = -0.21
Example:
P X 8 .3821
X 85
Z
.30
10
Standardized
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
10
Z 1
.3821
X
Shaded Area Exaggerated
Z 0
0.30
Example:
P X 8 .3821
.00
.01
Z 0
(continued)
Z 1
.02
.6179
Shaded Area
Exaggerated
0
Z = 0.30
Z 0
Z 1
.00
.01
0.2
.6217
Z .31
Normal Distribution
10
Z 1
.6179
.3821
Z 0
0.30
X Z 5 .30 10 8
An Example
We have a training program designed to
upgrade the supervisory skills of production
line supervisors. Because the program is self
administered, supervisors require different no.
of hours to complete the program. A study of
past participation indicates that the mean
length of time spent on the program is 500
hours and that this normally distributed random
variable has a standard deviation of 100 hrs.
Inspection Shop
On the basis of past experience,
automobile inspectors in Maruti Udyog
Limited in Gurgaon, have noticed that 5
percent of the cars coming in for their
annual inspection fail to pass. Find the
probability that between 7 and 18 of the
next 200 cars to enter the Inspection shop
will fail in the inspection.