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Global warming.
6

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GDP growth rates of China, India and Pakistan 2000-2010.

7

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Top 10 in 2050
1. India - 1,692,008,000
2. China - 1,295,604,000
3. United States - 403,101,000
4. Nigeria - 389,615,000
5. Indonesia - 293,456,000
6. Pakistan - 274,875,000
7. Brazil - 222,843,000
8. Bangladesh - 194,353,000
9. Philippines - 154,939,000
10. Democratic Republic of the Congo 148,523,000
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Top 10 in 2100.
1) India - 1,550,899,000
2) China - 941,042,000
3) Nigeria - 729,885,000
4) United States - 478,026,000
5) Tanzania - 316,338,000
6) Pakistan - 261,271,000
7) Indonesia - 254,178,000
8) DR of the Congo - 212,113,000
9) Philippines - 177,803,000
10) Brazil - 177,349,000

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The South Asia scenario.

12

Population growth, urbanization, industrialization and increased

reliance on irrigated agriculture have steadily increased regional
demand for water.
These trends are only expected to accelerate in coming decades.
In addition, as climate change alters weather patterns and
shrinks glaciers, the quantity of water in these river systems is
expected to become increasingly erratic, leading to a higher
frequency of severe floods and droughts.
In the long-term, experts predict, the quantity of water in these
river systems will decrease, especially in the Indus River system.
The combination of these two trendsincreasing demand plus
decreasing supply and access is likely to exacerbate disputes
over regional water resources.
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Water dependent Agriculture

14

With the largest rural population in the world

estimated at more than 1 billion in 2010 agriculturedependent South Asia relies heavily upon water
resources for agriculture.
In India in 2000, for example, 86.4 percent of annual
freshwater withdrawals were for agricultural use, while
8.1 percent were used domestically
(UN, 2009).
In South Asia, as elsewhere, water is not only
important for drinking, but is essential to food and
industrial production.
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The continued importance of Agriculture.

15

Agriculture constitutes 90 percent of all water use in South

Asia, making it by far the most significant sector for water
demand.
Agriculture is also the most important economic activity and
largest employer in the region.
Approximately 68 percent of Indias workforce rely on farming,
though agricultural contributions accounted for 19 percent of
total gross domestic product in 2010.
According to the World Bank (2008), agriculture accounts for
one-quarter of Pakistans gross domestic product, two-thirds of
its employment and 80 percent of its exports.

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Eating more water!

16

The developing world alone will be home to 90 percent of the 3

billion people expected to be added to the global population by
2025.
The changes in lifestyle of those living in developing countries,
where rising rates of economic development will increase
demand for water as diets shift from primarily grain-based to
include a greater diversity of meats and vegetables, is also an
important factor.
As the latest UNESCO World Water Assessment Report notes,
the relevant question for contemporary water issues is often
not How much water do people drink? but rather How
much water do people eat?

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Distribution of glacier area percentage.

17

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Snow leopard range.

18

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The Indus basin.

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Distribution of glaciers and areas.

20

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Consequences of glacial melt.

21

The glacial waters of the Himalayas feed South Asias major river
systems.
The accelerating retreat of these glaciers as a direct result of global
warming has already had troubling consequences for the region.
These consequences are projected to worsen:
Some climate change scenarios suggest these glaciers could shrink
by as much as 80 percent by 2030.
The glaciers retreat will increase supply in the short term, in many
cases leading to flooding.
Over the long run, however, diminished glaciers will be incapable
of sustaining consistent supplies to the major rivers of the region
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Immediate consequences for the Indus.

Climate change is likely to limit the flow of the Indus River.
Unlike the Ganges and Brahmaputra River systems, which rely
more heavily on rainfall, the Indus River system is fed primarily by
glacial meltwater.
Meltwater provides approximately 70 to 80 percent of all the water
in the Indus River. Global warming thus has a disproportionate
impact on the amount of water entering the Indus and its
tributaries.
The precise effects of climate change on the Indus River system are
highly dependent on how climate change is modeled.
However, widely referenced estimates indicate a troubling
long-term trend for the flow of the Indus River.
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Water availability in Pakistan.

25

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IPCC prognosis for Pakistan.

27

River water provides 80 percent of all irrigation water for

Pakistans critical agriculture sector. These water sources are
already near their limits, with most water diverted to
northern Pakistans agricultural regions at the expense of the
south. In fact, so much water is diverted from the Indus
before it reaches the ocean that seawater has invaded the
river channel miles inland.
Based on current projections, the Indus River system is
expected to fall below 2000 flow levels between 2030 and
2050. The drop-off is estimated to be most serious between
2030 and 2040, with a new equilibrium flow of 20 percent
below that of 2000 reached after 2060.
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Demographic factors in Pakistan's problems.

28

Pakistan has a population growth rate of 2.13

percent, compared to 1.27 percent in India and .61
percent in China. More people are a source of prosperity
only to the extent that they are engaged in productive
activity. Pakistan scores poorly in that regard.
Pakistan's dependency ratio, as of 2010, was 69,
compared to 56 for India and just 39 for China.
Pakistan's total fertility rate remains high, and as long as it
does so, its dependency ratio will remain high as well.

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The Importance of Agriculture in India.

29

Provides employment to 56.7% of the workforce of over

460 million. Work force growing by about 8 million a

year now.
Provides livelihood to 56% of population
Accounts for 18% of the GDP ($ 1.142 trillion in 2007 or
$205 bn.). It was 42.8% in 1980 and supported almost
60% of the population.
Indias population will stabilize around 2060 at 1.8
billion.
To support a 8-9% GDP growth, Agriculture needs to
grow at 4%.
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Indias Irrigated and Rainfed Areas.

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% of Irrigated Acreage by Source.

31

Canals

Years
1980-81
1985-86
1990-91
1995-96
1999-00

Tanks

Tube-wells Other
and wells Sources

Govt
Private
37.32
2.17
8.22
37.54
1.11
6.60
35.34
1.00
6.13
31.01
1.05
5.84
30.66
0.78
4.73
Source: Ministry of Agriculture

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45.70
48.77
51.42
55.61
58.76

6.59
5.98
6.11
6.49
5.08

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Distribution of land-holdings and area owned.

32

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The Sutlej moved westward and became a tributary of the Indus River while
the Yamuna moved eastward and became a tributary of the Ganges, in the
early 2nd millennium BCE. The Sutlej shifted its channel northwards
repeatedly, and was eventually captured by the Indus system. The water loss
due to these movements caused the Ghaggar-Hakra (Sarasvati) river to dry
up in the Thar Desert and the Harappan settlements disappeared.
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Finally!
Clearly global warning is inevitable and hence water

problems in the sub-continent will get further

exacerbated.
We can only hope to mitigate effects by early and
meaningful co-operation.
We suffer from a knowledge deficit about the state of
the glaciers and on changing monsoon patterns.
We know even less about our groundwater resources.
Aquifers have no borders.
What can be done together?
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Thank you!

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Cheap water.
37

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The impact of climate change.

38

Climate change is the second major driver of pressure

on water supply and access.
As temperatures rise, glaciers that feed the worlds most
important rivers are retreating at an accelerating rate.
Rainfall patterns are becoming more extreme, with
greater rainfall during the monsoon monthsleading to
more frequent and severe floods in vulnerable lowlands
and less rainfall in the dry season, when it is needed
most
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Distribution of operational holdings in India.

39
Number ( ' 000 )
Area ( ' 000 Hectares)
Average Size
1970-71
1990-91
1970-71
1990-91
1970-71
1990-91
Marginal (Less
35682
63389
14545
24894
0.41
0.39
Than 1 Ha)
(50.6)
(59.4)
(09.0)
(15.1)
Small (1.0 to 2.0
13432
20092
19282
28827
1.44
1.43
Ha)
(19.1)
(18.8)
(11.9)
(17.4)
Semi-Medium
10681
13923
29999
38375
2.81
2.76
(2.0 to 4.0 Ha)
(15.2)
(13.1)
(18.4)
(23.2)
Medium (4.0 to
7932
7580
48234
44752
6.08
5.90
10.0 Ha)
(11.3)
(07.1)
(29.8)
(27.0)
Large (10.0 ha
2766
1654
50064
28659
18.10
17.33
and above )
(03.9)
(01.6)
(30.9)
(17.3)
70493
106637
162124
165507
2.30
1.55
Total
(100.0)
(100.0)
(100.0)
(100.0)
( ) : Percentage share of various categories to the total (vertical) of a particular year
Source : Fertiliser Statistics, 1999-2000, The Fertiliser Association of India
Category

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