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Chapter 10

Introduction

Capital budgeting was introduced in Chapter


9. The estimation of a projects cash flows
was covered, including both the net
investment and net cash flows.

The focus of this chapter is the analysis of a


projects cash flows in order to make a project
acceptance or rejection decision.

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Organization of Chapter 10

Capital budgeting decision methods:

Payback period
Discounted payback period
Net present value
Profitability index
Internal rate of return
Modified internal rate of return

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Organization of Chapter 10

Capital budgeting decisions with:

Independent projects
Mutually exclusive projects
Projects with cash flows that are not normal

The advantages and disadvantages of each of


the capital budgeting decision methods

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Project Cash Flows

The capital budgeting decision is essentially


based upon a cost/benefit analysis.

We call the cost of a project the net


investment.

The benefits from a project are the future cash


flows generated. We call these the net cash
flows.

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Capital Budgeting Decision Methods

Capital budgeting decision methods essentially


compare a projects net investment with its net
cash flows. Project acceptance or rejection is
based upon this comparison.

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Payback Period

A projects payback period is the number of


years its takes for a projects net cash flows to
pay back the net investment. Shorter paybacks
are better than longer paybacks.

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Payback Period

Suppose a project has a $200,000 net


investment and net cash flows (NCFs) of
$70,000 annually for 7 years. What is the
payback?

In 3 years, the project will generate a total of


$210,000 from net cash flows. Therefore, the
payback must be a little less than 3 years. It is
more precisely:

$200,000
Payback Period
2.86 Years
$70,000
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Payback Period

The payback period is useful as a measure of a


projects liquidity risk, but it has several
weaknesses:

Does not account for the time value of money

No objective criterion for what is an acceptable


payback period

Cash flows occurring after the payback period have


no impact upon the payback computation.

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Discounted Payback Period

This improves upon the payback period by


taking into account the time value of money.

A projects discounted payback period is the


number of years it takes for the net cash flows
present values to pay back the net investment.
Again, shorter paybacks are better than longer
paybacks.

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Discounted Payback Period

We will compute the discounted payback period


(DPP) using the same example. We will need a
required rate of return for the computation.
Lets use 10%.

The following table is used to compute the


projects DPP.

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Discounted Payback Period


Year
0
1
2
3
4
5

Cash Flow

PV of Cash Flow

-$200,000
$70,000
$70,000
$70,000
$70,000
$70,000

-$200,000
$63,636
$57,851
$52,592
$47,811
$43,464

Cumulative
-$200,000
-$236,364
-$78,513
-$25,921

After 3 years there is still $25,921 that has not


been paid back by the present value of the net
cash flows.

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Discounted Payback Period

The DPP will be 3 years plus whatever


proportion of year 4 is needed to pay back the
final $25,921.

$25,921
DPP 3
3.54
$47,811

The discounted payback is 3.54 years. This


project recovers its net investment in 3.54 years
when considering the time value of money.

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Discounted Payback Period

The DPP is an improvement upon the payback


period in 2 ways:

The DPP takes into account the time value of


money.

There is an objective criterion for an acceptable


DPP if a project has normal cash flows. Under
these circumstances a project is acceptable if
the DPP is less than the economic life of the
project.

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Net Present Value

A projects net present value (NPV) is the most


straightforward application of cost-benefit analysis.

The cost is the net investment.

The benefit is the sum of the present values.

NPV is the sum of the present values of the net cash


flows minus the net investment. The cash flows are
discounted at a projects required rate of return.

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Net Present Value

Using the same example, the NPV with a 10%


required rate of return is:
1

1
1 + 10% 5
$200,000 = $65,355
NPV = $70,000 x
10%

A positive NPV indicates a project is acceptable.

A negative NPV indicates a project is not


acceptable.

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Net Present Value

A projects NPV is also an estimate of the


change in a firms value caused by investment
in a project.

In the example, the firms value is expected to


increase by $65,355 if the project is accepted.

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Profitability Index

A projects profitability index (PI) also


compares a projects costs to its benefits.

Cost and benefits for the PI are measured the same


as for the NPV.

The comparison of costs and benefits is different for


the PI than for the NPV. It is the ratio of a projects
benefit to its cost.

A projects PI is the sum of the present values of


the net cash flows divided by the net investment.

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Profitability Index

Using the same example and a 10% required


rate of return, the projects PI is

1 - 1 + 10% 5

$70,000 x
10%

$265,355

PI =
=
= 1.33
$200,000
$200,000

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Profitability Index

The PI can also be computed as follows:

NPV
$65,355
PI 1
1
1.33
Net Investment
$200,000

A PI of 1.33 indicates a project is expected to


generate $0.33 of NPV for every $1.00 invested
in the project. Keep in mind, NPV is a measure
of value over and above the projects net
investment.

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Profitability Index

A PI greater than 1.0 indicates a project is


acceptable.

A PI less than 1.0 indicates a project is not


acceptable.

The PI is most useful when a firm is facing


capital rationing. The PI indicates which
projects generate the greatest NPV per dollar
invested.

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Internal Rate of Return

An internal rate of return (IRR) is a projects


true annual percentage rate of return based
upon the estimated cash flows.

IRR can also be defined as the interest rate


causing a projects NPV to be equal to zero.
Therefore, the IRR equation is adapted from the
NPV equation.

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Internal Rate of Return

Using the same example, the IRR equation is:


1

1
1 + IRR 5
$200,000 = 0
$70,000 x
IRR

IRR equals 22.11%.

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Internal Rate of Return

The IRR equation can also be expressed as:


1

1
1 + IRR 5
= $200,000
$70,000 x
IRR

And of course the IRR still equals 22.11%.

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Internal Rate of Return

A project is:

Acceptable if the IRR > required rate of return.

Unacceptable if the IRR < required rate of return.

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Internal Rate of Return

Notice we did not use the 10% required rate of


return to compute the IRR in our example. But
we do determine project acceptability by
comparing the IRR to the required rate of
return.

In our example, the project is acceptable since


the 22.11% IRR is greater than the 10%
required rate of return.

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Modified Internal Rate of Return

A projects modified internal rate of return


(MIRR) is the interest rate equating a projects
investment costs with the terminal value of the
projects net cash flows.

The present value of a projects investment


costs is called the beginning value.

The future value of a projects net cash flows is


called the terminal value.

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Modified Internal Rate of Return

A projects beginning value is the sum of the


present values of all investment cash outflows
for a project.

If all investment cash outflows occur at the very


beginning (time = 0), then the beginning value
equals the net investment.

If investment outlays occur over several years,


the discount rate used to compute present
values is usually the required rate of return.

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Modified Internal Rate of Return

A projects terminal value is the sum of the


future values of the net cash flows at the end of
the projects economic life.

The interest rate used to compute the future


values is usually the required rate of return.

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Modified Internal Rate of Return

Using the same example, the projects


beginning value is just the net investment of
$200,000. The projects terminal value (TV) is:

1 + 10% 5 1
TV = $70,000 x
= $427,357
10%

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Modified Internal Rate of Return

The projects MIRR equates the PV of the


beginning value with the FV of the terminal
value:

$427,357
$200,000 =
5
1 + MIRR

The MIRR equals 16.40%.

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Modified Internal Rate of Return

A project is:

Acceptable if the MIRR > required rate of return.

Unacceptable if the MIRR < required rate of


return.

In our example, the project is acceptable since


the 16.40% MIRR is greater than the 10%
required rate of return.

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Independent Projects and Decision Making

An independent capital budget project presents


a standalone decision. A single project is
simply evaluated to determine if it is expected to
increase firm value or decrease firm value.

If a project has normal cash flows and is


independent, then any of the methods besides
payback period can be used to determine
acceptability.

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Independent Projects and Decision Making

An independent, normal project is


acceptable if

Discounted payback period < economic life

Net present value > 0

Profitability index > 1.0

Internal rate of return > required rate of return

Modified IRR > required rate of return

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Mutually Exclusive Projects and Decision Making

Mutually exclusive capital budgeting decisions


require the evaluation of several projects to
determine the one project that maximizes firm
value.

All the mutually exclusive projects need to be


ranked with only the best project accepted.

The project with the highest NPV is by definition


the project expected to maximize firm value.

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Mutually Exclusive Projects and Decision Making


Other methods besides NPV may not rank
projects correctly if:

Projects have scale differencesnet


investments are different sizes.

Projects have cash flow timing differences.

Cash flows are not normalone or more future


net cash flows are negative.

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Mutually Exclusive Projects and Decision Making


When projects have scale differences:

Only the NPV will definitely rank projects


correctly.

The payback period, DPP, PI, IRR, and MIRR


may not rank projects correctly.

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Mutually Exclusive Projects and Decision Making

When projects have cash flow timing


differences:

The NPV, PI, and MIRR will rank projects


correctly.

The payback period, DPP, and IRR may not rank


projects correctly.

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Mutually Exclusive Projects and Decision Making

When a projects cash flows are not normal:

The NPV, PI, and MIRR will rank projects


correctly.

The payback period, DPP, and IRR may not rank


projects correctly.

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Capital Budgeting Methods Pros and Cons

Payback Period

A measure of liquidity and risk

Does not take into account the time value of


money

No information on project profitability

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Capital Budgeting Methods Pros and Cons

Discounted Payback

A better measure of liquidity and risk than the


ordinary payback period

Does take into account the time value of


money

Provides an objective criterion for normal


projects: DPP < economic life

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Capital Budgeting Methods Pros and Cons

Net Present Value

Best measure of project profitability.

Does not provide much information about


project risk.

Is consistent with maximizing firm value.

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Capital Budgeting Methods Pros and Cons

Profitability Index

A relative measure of profitability

Provides some information about project risk

May not rank mutually exclusive projects


correctly

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Capital Budgeting Methods Pros and Cons


Internal Rate of Return

A relative measure of profitability

Provides some information about project risk

May not rank mutually exclusive projects


correctly

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Capital Budgeting Methods Pros and Cons

Modified Internal Rate of Return

A relative measure of profitability

Provides some information about project risk

May not rank mutually exclusive projects


correctly if scale differences exist between
projects

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Summary of Chapter 10 Topics

The NPV is the single best measure of a


projects profitability.

The PI, IRR, and MIRR provide a measure of a


projects margin of safety.

The payback period and DPP provide a


measure of liquidity risk.

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Summary of Chapter 10 Topics

We have covered the following in this chapter:

Computation of 6 capital budgeting decision


methods and their pros and cons

Making decisions with independent projects

Making decisions with mutually exclusive


projects

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By Robert E. Chatfield and Michael C. Dalbor

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2005 Pearson Education, Inc.


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