Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold:

A Vietnamese Perspective on
China-U.S. Relations
Carlyle A. Thayer, Paper presented to
International Conference on China-US Relations
in Global Perspective sponsored by the New
Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre ,
Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington,
New Zealand
October 8-9, 2015

Outline
Introduction
Part 1 The Framework of Vietnams
Relations with China and the United
States, 1991-96
Part 2 Vietnams Strategic
Partnerships with the Major Powers,
1996-2013
Part 3 Vietnams Relations with China
and the United States, 2013-15
Conclusion

Introduction
Independence, self-reliance,
multilateralization and diversification
of international relations and
proactive international integration
and cooperation
Major powers: China, Russia, India,
Japan and the United States
Cooperation and struggle
Defence self-help

Goldilocks Model
Not too hot
China-US collusion against Vietnams
interests

Not too cold

Negative impact on the region and
Vietnam

Just right
Vietnam can leverage off the dynamic
tensions

Part 1 The Framework of Vietnams

Relations with China and the United
States, 1991-96
End of Cambodia conflict (1979-91)
7th National Party Congress (June
2001)
Diversify and multilateralize economic
relations with all countries
Regardless of different socio-political
systems
Priority to USSR, China, India, NAM and
new friends
Normalize relations with the United

Opportunities & Challenges

End of global trade and aid boycott
Restoration of relations with EU and
Japan
Normalize with ASEAN states
Normalization of relations with China

Emergence of South China Sea

dispute
Mid-Term Party Conference (1994)
Make friends with all countries
Industrialisation and modernisation

1995 Pivotal Year

Normalisation of relations with the
U.S.
U.S. gradually lifts objections to IMF and
World Bank funding for Vietnam

Membership in ASEAN
Framework cooperation agreement
with EU
In 1989 Vietnam had diplomatic
relations with 23 states, in 1995 this
rose to 163

Part 2 Vietnams Strategic Partnerships

with the Major Powers, 1996-2013
Eighth National Party Congress
(1996)
International economic cooperation
Strategic partnership Russian
Federation (2001)
US-Vietnam negotiations on Bilateral
Trade Agreement

Ninth National Party Congress (2001)

Industrialisation and modernisation by
2020

Cooperation & Struggle

Eighth Plenum Central Committee
(2003)
Cooperation and struggle
Opening of defence relations with the US

Tenth National Party Congress (2006)

Multilateral and diversified relations,
proactive integration with world
economic community
Expand international cooperation
Vietnam granted PNTR status by US

Strategic Partnerships
Japan (2006)
India (2007)
China (2009) upgraded to
comprehensive strategic partnership
(2010)
Joint Steering Committee

South China Sea Tensions 2007-08

and 2009
1st Defence Policy Dialogue with the
US (2010)

11th National Party Congress (2011)

Firmly defend national independence,
sovereignty and territorial integrity
Modern industrial country by 2020
Proactively take part in international
integration
MOU on Defence Cooperation with
US (2011)
5th Political, Security and Economic
Dialogue
Fly outs to US aircraft carriers

Symbolic fly outs

USS John D. Stennis

April 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug

2010

USS Jacksonville (SSN 699),

Pacific Command, Dec
2009

USS George Washington Aug 2010

Strategic Partnerships
South Korea and Spain (2009)
Australia Comprehensive Partnership
(2009)
United Kingdom and Germany (2011)
Italy and France (2013)
Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore
(2013)
Negotiations with the Philippines
Russia comprehensive strategic

Part 3 Vietnams Relations with

China and the United States,
2013-15
Vietnam-China Relations
Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative
Partnership
Dense network of party, state and defence
mechanisms and high-level exchanges
Joint Steering Committee for Bilateral
Cooperation

Basic Principles on Guiding Settlement

of Maritime Issues (2011)

Vietnam-China Relations
2013
Defence Relations
Goodwill naval port visits
Strategic Defence Dialogue
Defence Ministry hot line
Joint Naval patrols in Gulf of Tonkin
(Beibu)

President Truong Tan Sang state visit

(June)
Premier Li Keqiang visits Hanoi
(October)

$23.7
billion
deficit
with
China

$19.6
billion
surplus
with the
US

Viet
Nam
US
Trade
Relation
s

Vietnam-US Relations 2013

Joint Statement on Comprehensive
Partnership (July 2013)
President Truong Tan Sang visits
Washington
Commitment on Trans-Pacific
Partnership
Convergence on maritime security

Agreement on Coast Guard

cooperation
US $18million funding for 5 patrol boats

HD-981 Crisis (May 2-July 16,

2014)
May 26,
2014

KN-951 rammed on June 23, 2014

Vietnam-China Relations
Leaders Meeting Joint Steering
Committee (June 18)
Special Envoy to Beijing (August 2627)
High-level Vietnamese Military
delegation (October 16-18)
7th Joint Steering Committee meets
(October 27)
VCP Secretary General to China (April
2015)

Vietnam-US Relations 2014

Invitation to Vietnams Foreign
Minister to visit Washington
postponed (May)
Politburo member Pham Quang Nghi
visits Washington (July)
Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh
visits Washington (October)
Secretary Kerry lifts restrictions on sale
of lethal weapons on case-by-case basis

Vietnam-US Relations 2015

Politburo member & Minister of Public
Security Tran Dai Quang visits
Washington (March)
Vietnam and US issue defence Joint
Vision Statement in Hanoi (June)
Party Secrearty General Nguyen Phu
Trong meets with President Obama in
Oval Office (July), issue Joint Vision
Statement

12 National Party Congress

th

First quarter 2014

Leadership and relations with China/US

Chinese Embassy National Day

Reception (Sept 29 held early)
Minister of Planning and Investment
attends

China to re-open Consulate in Da Nang

Espionage trial (Sept 30)
Chinese interference in internal affairs

Auditioning for Vietnams

Future
Threat of peaceful evolution
countertpoised with Threat of Chinese
subversion
Obama-Xi Summit in Washington
(September 25)
Vietnam fears collusion

Vietnam to host visits by Obama and

Xi in November
Chinese pressure to mute comments

Conclusion
Policy of multilateralization and
diversification of external relations
Normalisation with China and US
(1991 & 1995) opportunities and
challenges
Economic development and
integration with global economy
Proactive international integration
Equilibrium in relations with major
powers

Chin
a
Russ
ia

Japa
n
Viet
Na
m

USA

EU
India

Conclusion
Strategic partnerships
Some upgraded

Comprehensive partnerships
South China Sea convergence in
security outlook between Vietnam
and US
HD 981 undermined strategic trust
Goldilocks model not too hot, not
too cold, just right

Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold:

A Vietnamese Perspective on
China-U.S. Relations
Carlyle A. Thayer, Paper presented to
International Conference on China-US Relations
in Global Perspective sponsored by the New
Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre ,
Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington,
New Zealand
October 8-9, 2015