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Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Capitulo 12
Algunas lecciones de la historia
de los mercados de capitales
12.1 Rendimientos
12.2 Rcord histrico
12.3 Rendimientos promedios: 1 leccin
12.4 Variabilidad de los rendimientos: 2 leccin
12.5 Eficiencia de los mercados de capitales
12.6 Resumen y conclusiones
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
The
McGraw-Hill
Total
$42.18
Flujos de entradas
Dividendos totales
$1.85
Valor final
de marcado
$40.33
Tiempo
t=1
Inversin
inicial
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Dividendos pagados
Rendimiento porcentual =
Dividendos pagados
1 + Pendimiento porcentual =al final del period
Valor de mercado
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
T12.4 Una inversin de un dlar en diferentes tipos de carteras 1926-1998 ( fin del
Index ($)
ao 1925 = $1
1925
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1998
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
-20
-40
1925
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1998
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
The
1998
McGraw-Hill Companies,
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
1925
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1998
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Certificados de tesoreria
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1925
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1998
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
- 20
1925
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1998
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Feb
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
Mar
Apr
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
The
Nov
Dec
McGraw-Hill Companies,
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
-1.00%
-2.00%
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Average
return
Standard
deviation
Risk
premium
Common stocks
13.2%
20.3%
____%
Small stocks
17.4%
33.8%
____%
LT Corporates
6.1%
8.6%
____%
Long-term
Treasury bonds
5.7%
9.2%
____%
Treasury bills
3.8%
3.2%
____%
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Investment
Average Return
Risk Premium
Large-company stocks
13.2%
9.4%
Small-company stocks
17.4
13.6
6.1
2.3
5.7
1.9
3.8
0.0
Source: Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation 1998 Yearbook, Ibbotson Associates, Inc. Chicago (annually updates work by
Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). All rights reserved
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
-5
15
25
35
45 55
The
Return (%)
McGraw-Hill Companies,
T12.15 Historical Returns, Standard Deviations, and Frequency Distributions: 19261998 (Figure 12.10)
Series
Average
Annual Return
Standard
Deviation
Large-company Stocks
13.2%
20.3%
Small-company Stocks
17.4
33.8
6.1
8.6
5.7
9.2
3.8
3.2
Inflation
3.2
4.5
Distribution
90%
0
%
+ 90%
Source: Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation 1998 Yearbook, Ibbotson Associates, Inc., Chicago (annually updates work by Roger G.
Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). All rights reserved.
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
-3s
-2s
-1s
-47.7%
-27.4%
-7.1%
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
0
13.2%
+1s
+2s
+3s
33.5%
53.8%
74.1%
The
Return on
large-company
stocks
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
220
180
140
Delayed reaction
100
8 6 4 2
+2 +4 +6 +7
Days relative
to announcement day
Efficient market reaction: The price instantaneously adjusts to and fully reflects new information; there is no tendency
for subsequent increases and decreases.
Delayed reaction: The price partially adjusts to the new information; 8 days elapse before the price completely reflects
the new information
Overreaction: The price overadjusts to the new information; it overshoots the new price and subsequently corrects.
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
1
[(R1 - R)2 + . . . [(RT - R)2]
T-1
Y, por supuesto, la desviacin estndar es la raz cuadrada de la varianza.
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,
anual?
Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Inc. 2000
The
McGraw-Hill Companies,