Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Financial Analysis
Analysis Implementation
Dr. Chen Chen
Email: chen.chen2@monash.edu
Presentation title
Business and
Industry analysis
Accounting analysis
Economic analysis
Business strategy analysis
Industry analysis
Financial Analysis
Valuation
Financial analysis
Accounting
analysis
Forecast
Valuation
Corporate governance
analysis
Presentation title
Financial Analysis
Financial analysis includes:
Ratio analysis
Cash flow analysis
Value of a firm is determined by (1) profitability and (2) growth.
Financial analysis of past years provides a benchmark for
forecasting growth and profitability.
Hence the importance of historical data (financial
statements) and the reliability of these statements for
forecasting purposes.
Presentation title
Financial Analysis
Ratio analysis to assess how various line items in
financial statements relate to each other and to measure
relative performance
Financial Analysis
Profitability and growth are influenced by a firms:
1. Product market strategies which are implemented via:
- Competitive strategy
- Operating policies
- Investment decisions
2. Financial market strategies which are implemented via:
- Financing policies
- Dividend policies
Presentation title
Financial Analysis
Presentation title
Ratio Analysis
Evaluating ratios requires comparison against some benchmark. Such
benchmarks include:
Ratios over time from prior periods (time series)
Ratios of other firms in the industry (cross-sectional)
Some absolute benchmark (e.g., industry norm)
Common size analysis (common size statements)
Effective ratio analysis must attempt to relate underlying business
factors to the financial numbers
Time-series Analysis
Time-series analysis refers to the analysis of one ratio (e.g.ROE) for
one firm, over time.
Forecasting future profitability
The model can take the following form:
ROEi,t+1 = + ROEi,t + eit
The estimate of the coefficient will indicate the persistence of
ROE over a time period.
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Cross-sectional Analysis
Cross-sectional analysis refers to the analysis of a ratio (e.g.ROE) in
one period for all firms, preferably from the same industry
Overcomes some of the problems associated with time-series analysis
Enables comparison of the ratio of the company with the industry
average
For example, in terms of profitability, want company-specific ratio
to exceed industry average
If not publicly available, you must calculate the industry norm
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Profitability Analysis
There are different types of profitability ratios
Important profitability ratios are:
ROE = NPAT before abnormal / (shareholders equity - outside
equity interests).
ROA = [Net Income + Interest Expense*(1-Corporate Tax Rate)]/
[Total Assets - Outside Equity Interests].
EBITDA margin = EBITDA / operating revenue.
Net profit margin = NPAT before abnormal / operating revenue
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ROE Characteristics
ROE indicates how much return you have generated using the equity
capital invested by shareholders in your company
Evidence exists that, on average, long run ROE is between 11-13%
(for large Australian firms)
That is, firms with larger or smaller ROE will overtime tend to
revert to the range of 11-13%
Mean-reverting
What would be the forecast of ROE for the next 5 years of a company
that experienced 5 years (historical data) of high (say, 30%) ROE?
Theoretically, ROE must revert to the mean within the forecast
period
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ROE-Mean Reversion
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ROE-Mean Reversion
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EBIT
Industry Margin
EBITDA
Margin
ROE
ROA
Financia
l
NOPLAT Leverag Price/Boo
Margin
e k Value
Bank
--
-- 14.74%
0.95%
--
--
1.78
Bank
--
-- 16.91%
0.92%
--
--
2.14
Bank
--
-- 11.76%
0.67%
--
--
1.39
Bank
--
-- 15.42%
0.95%
--
1.82
46.43% 25.70%
14.70%
24.84%
FMG
39.35% 51.57%
19.56%
33.51%
MCC
26.02% 11.29%
8.68%
18.79%
RIO
37.52% 24.04%
13.81%
27.75%
CGJ
MTS
Metcash Limited
TRS
-180.12
%
359.16
%
138.85
%
172.20
%
248.83
%
264.16
%
259.83
%
236.48
%
BHP
Grocery retail
3.25%
4.81% 19.53%
8.83%
2.51%
Grocery wholesale
3.54%
3.94% 18.58%
8.24%
2.66%
Discount warehouse
Grocery/household
retail
6.95%
8.81% 45.30%
18.14%
5.15%
5.96%
7.50% 26.69%
11.99%
4.44%
3.64
7.39
2.73
2.61
4.45
2.26
7.91
4.26
ROE-BP
Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2011 Dec 31, 2010
Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions)
Profit (loss) for the year
attributable to BP
shareholders
Total BP shareholders'
equity
3,780
23,451
11,582
25,700
(3,719)
111,441
129,302
118,414
111,465
94,987
Ratio
ROE1
3.39%
18.14%
9.78%
23.06%
-3.92%
Chevron Corp.
12.41%
14.37%
19.18%
22.16%
18.10%
ConocoPhillips
13.23%
17.58%
17.56%
19.07%
16.57%
18.65%
18.72%
27.06%
26.59%
20.74%
8.65%
9.09%
14.11%
18.24%
13.60%
Benchmarks
ROE, Competitors
Presentation titleROE,
Sector
19
Ave. Assets
Sales
Ave. Assets
Profitability Ratio
ROA
Asset
Mana
geme
nt
Ratio:
Asse
t
Turn
over
Profitability
Ratio: Profit
Margin
Dividend Payout
Ratio
Other Margins
Presentation title
Other Asset
Management Ratios
21
Presentation title
22
More Leverage?
ROE= Profit Margin x Asset Turnover x Financial leverage
More Leverage?
Presentation title
23
RNOA (Return on Net Operating Assets) = Operating Income (After tax) / Net Operating
Assets
FLEV (Financial Leverage) = Net Financial Obligation (Liability) / Equity
NBC(Net Borrowing Cost) = Net Interest Expenses (after tax) / Net Financial Obligation
SPREAD (Financial Spread)= RNOA NBC
ROOA = (Operating Income +Implicit Interest (after tax))/Operating Assets
OLLEV (Operating liability leverage)=Operating Liabilities/Operating Assets
OLSPREAD (Operating liability spread)=ROOA-Short-term Borrowing Rate (after tax)
The advantage is that this measure is determined by the market and can
not be influenced by management
Calculation of cost of equity capital considered in week 10
Presentation title
28th
28
Presentation title
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ROA-BP
Dec 31, 2014
3,780
23,451
11,582
25,700
(3,719)
284,305
305,690
300,193
293,068
272,262
1.33%
7.67%
3.86%
8.77%
-1.37%
Chevron Corp.
7.23%
8.44%
11.24%
12.84%
10.30%
ConocoPhillips
5.89%
7.76%
7.19%
8.12%
7.27%
9.30%
9.39%
13.45%
12.40%
10.07%
4.21%
4.58%
7.38%
8.96%
6.24%
Ratio
ROA1
Benchmarks
ROA, Competitors
ROA, Sector
Presentation title
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Presentation title
32
Presentation title
33
44,286
53,258
48,427
65,754
16,281
353,568
379,136
375,580
375,517
297,107
Ratio
Gross profit margin1
12.53%
14.05%
12.89%
17.51%
5.48%
Benchmarks
Gross Profit Margin, Competitors
Chevron Corp.
23.62%
23.77%
25.69%
26.48%
27.22%
ConocoPhillips
40.96%
45.08%
44.75%
13.98%
15.50%
24.85%
25.08%
25.83%
27.13%
29.13%
15.15%
15.44%
15.23%
15.67%
16.42%
Presentation title
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Presentation title
35
3,780
23,451
11,582
25,700
(3,719)
223
307
234
397
395
947
6,463
6,993
12,737
(1,501)
4,950
30,221
18,809
38,834
(4,825)
1,148
1,068
1,125
1,246
1,170
Earnings before
interest and tax
(EBIT)
6,098
31,289
19,934
40,080
(3,655)
Add: Depreciation,
depletion and
amortization
15,163
13,510
12,481
11,135
11,164
Earnings before
interest, tax,
depreciation and
amortization (EBITDA)
21,261
44,799
32,415
51,215
7,509
Presentation title
36
Inventory Turnover-BP
Dec 31, 2014
309,282
325,878
327,153
309,763
280,826
18,373
29,231
27,867
25,661
26,218
16.83
11.15
11.74
12.07
10.71
Chevron Corp.
22.28
24.97
26.58
30.95
24.70
ConocoPhillips
23.30
25.03
33.19
42.46
28.17
16.00
17.64
20.88
20.42
18.01
18.14
12.72
12.87
13.68
10.48
Inventories
Ratio
Inventory turnover1
Benchmarks
Inventory Turnover, Competitors
Receivable Turnover-BP
Dec 31, 2014
353,568
379,136
375,580
375,517
297,107
19,671
28,868
25,977
27,929
24,255
17.97
13.13
14.46
13.45
12.25
Ratio
Receivables
turnover1
Benchmarks
Receivables Turnover, Competitors
Chevron Corp.
11.98
10.18
10.98
11.21
9.55
ConocoPhillips
7.87
6.58
6.49
16.71
13.74
21.26
16.19
15.97
15.54
14.55
14.83
11.54
11.62
9.73
9.83
15.79
12.32
12.73
12.63
11.69
Presentation title
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353,568
379,136
375,580
375,517
297,107
130,692
133,690
120,448
119,214
110,163
2.71
2.84
3.12
3.15
2.70
Ratio
Net fixed asset
turnover1
Benchmarks
Net Fixed Asset Turnover, Competitors
Chevron Corp.
1.09
1.34
1.63
1.99
1.90
ConocoPhillips
0.70
0.75
0.86
2.91
2.29
1.56
1.73
2.00
2.18
1.85
2.19
2.35
2.71
3.09
2.58
1.89
2.18
2.60
2.23
Presentation title
1.70
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Equity Turnover-BP
Dec 31, 2014
353,568
379,136
375,580
375,517
297,107
111,441
129,302
118,414
111,465
94,987
3.17
2.93
3.17
3.37
3.13
Chevron Corp.
1.29
1.48
1.69
2.01
1.89
ConocoPhillips
1.01
1.04
1.21
3.75
2.76
2.26
2.42
2.73
3.02
2.52
2.45
2.51
2.48
2.77
2.49
2.14
2.23
2.41
2.90
2.53
Ratio
Equity turnover1
Benchmarks
Equity Turnover, Competitors
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Liquidity analysis
Liquidity analysis
Knowing how the liquidity ratios are calculated allows the user to
understand how to interpret them:
Current ratio = Current assets
Current liabilities
Quick ratio = Cash + Short-term investments + Accts. receivable
Current liabilities
Cash ratio = Cash + Marketable securities
Current liabilities
Operating cash flow ratio = Cash flows from operations
Current liabilities
Current Ratio-BP
Dec 31, 2014
87,262
96,840
110,981
97,584
96,853
Current liabilities
63,615
72,812
77,586
84,318
83,879
1.37
1.33
1.43
1.16
1.15
Chevron Corp.
1.32
1.52
1.63
1.58
1.68
ConocoPhillips
1.31
1.26
1.38
1.08
1.26
0.82
0.83
1.01
0.94
0.94
1.16
1.11
1.18
1.17
1.12
1.15
1.15
1.27
1.15
1.16
Ratio
Current ratio1
Benchmarks
Current Ratio, Competitors
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Quick Ratio-BP
Dec 31, 2014
333
216
247
244
247
Trade receivables
19,671
28,868
25,977
27,929
24,255
Other receivables
11,367
10,963
11,687
15,597
12,294
Other investments
329
467
319
288
1,532
29,763
22,520
19,548
14,067
18,556
61,463
63,034
57,778
58,125
56,884
Current liabilities
63,615
72,812
77,586
84,318
83,879
0.97
0.87
0.74
0.69
0.68
Chevron Corp.
0.94
1.16
1.25
1.25
1.30
Presentation title
ConocoPhillips
1.03
0.99
0.78
0.82
1.00
Ratio
Quick ratio1
Benchmarks
Quick Ratio, Competitors
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Cash Ratio-BP
Dec 31, 2014
329
467
319
288
1,532
29,763
22,520
19,548
14,067
18,556
30,092
22,987
19,867
14,355
20,088
Current liabilities
63,615
72,812
77,586
84,318
83,879
0.47
0.32
0.26
0.17
0.24
Chevron Corp.
0.41
0.50
0.64
0.60
0.59
ConocoPhillips
0.44
0.43
0.25
0.23
0.42
0.07
0.07
0.15
0.17
0.13
0.25
0.10
0.19
0.11
0.13
Ratio
Cash ratio1
Benchmarks
Cash Ratio, Competitors
Presentation title
50
Altman z-score
Zones of Discrimination:
Z > 2.99 -Safe Zones
1.81 < Z < 2.99 -Grey Zones
Z < 1.81 -Distress Zones
Your Project
Section
Financial
Analysis
Profitability
Many of the ratios are available in Osiris. Identify the more important ones.
analysis
Merely stating the ratios will not fetch marks. A brief discussion on key ratios is
500
100
100
100
100
100
required. Comparison against peer and industry is important (both time series
and cross sectional).
Asset
Many of the ratios are available in Osiris. Identify the more important ones.
management
Merely stating the ratios will not fetch marks. A brief discussion on key ratios is
analysis
required. Comparison against peer and industry is important (both time series
and cross sectional).
Many of the ratios are available in Osiris. Identify the more important ones.
analysis
Merely stating the ratios will not fetch marks. A brief discussion on key ratios is
required. Comparison against peer and industry is important (both time series
and cross sectional).
Cash Flow
Many of the cash flow ratios are available in database. Identify the more
Analysis
Credit analysis
Include credit ratings for your company from credit rating agencies (if any).
Conduct the distress analysis and measure Altmans Z score across two recent
years.
65
Next week
Forecasting