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MikeByfield,CranfieldUniversity
Predicted strength
Series1
Series2
Experimental strength
Probability of actual
strength falling below
the design strength
<10-8
Bending resistance of
restrained beams
4.6x10-6
0.95 (1.10)
Shear buckling
resistance of plate
girders
1.0x10-2
1.33 (1.10)
Design task
Tensile resistance of
ordinary bolts
Conclusionsfromthereliabilityanalysis
The most complex design task requires the highest safety factor.
Reliability variations can reduce safety by leading to over-strength
components, transferring failure to connections or columns
Increasing the boxed value to improve the reliability of plate girder
design would not necessarily solve all the reliability problems.
Apracticalsolutiontovariablesafetylevels
Solution 1
Determine a M factor for each resistance function. The factor could take
the form of a numerical constant incorporated into the design expression
Designer being largely unaware of the origin of the factor.
No other safety factors on resistance.
Problem politically unacceptable
Solution 2
Retain the boxed value system
Embed a supplementary safety factor into each resistance function.
The boxed values selected by nation states would merely adjust design
economy and target reliability.
M
Supplementaryfactor,k= *
R
Where:
Mistheboxedvalue
*R
isthesafetyfactoroutputfromreliabilityanalysis
Thusthedesignresistance,rd=krn/M
Example
Inthecaseoftheplasticmomentcapacityofrestrainedbeams
k=1.10/0.94=1.17
Themodifieddesignexpressionwouldtaketheform:
1.0E-08
1.0E-07
1.0E-07
Reliability, Pr(r<r d)
Reliability, Pr(r<r d)
1.0E-08
1.0E-06
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
1.0E-03
1.0E-02
1.0E-06
1.0E-05
1.0E-04
1.0E-03
1.0E-02
1.0E-01
1.0E-01
1.0E+00
1.0E+00