Deduction and Induction

Elementary deduction, my dear Watson

Induction: the type of argument in which

the conclusion is supposed to follow from
the premise(s) with probability.
John is a Republican, so he probably
voted for Bush.

Deduction: the type of argument in which

the premises are meant to be providing
such solid support that the conclusion should
be inescapable.

Deduction: the type of argument in which

the conclusion is supposed to follow
from the premise(s) with necessity.
All men are mortal
Socrates is a man
So Socrates is mortal.

Two kinds of Goodness for

Deductive arguments

Spiders are reptiles, and

All reptiles are democrats, so
Spiders are democrats.

Deduction

Valid or Invalid

Sound or Unsound

Valid: An argument is valid when it is

impossible for the premises to all be
true and the conclusion be false.
Jones is a citizen because she can
vote, and only citizens can vote.

If the premises can all be true and the

conclusion false, it is invalid.

If Ronald Reagan was assassinated,

then hes dead. So he must have been
assassinated, since hes dead.

SOUND: An argument is sound if it

a) is valid, and
b) has all true premises
If Lincoln was assassinated, hes dead.
And he was, so he is.
What is the truth-value of the conclusion
of a sound argument?

UNSOUND: An argument is unsound

if it is invalid
Or
not all its premises are true
or both of the above

Spiders are reptiles, and

All reptiles are democrats, so
Spiders are democrats.

Valid, but unsound

Two kinds of Goodness for

Inductive arguments
Every Secretary of Defense so
far has been a woman, so the next
one will probably be a woman too.

Induction

Strong or Weak

Cogent or Uncogent

Strong: An argument is strong if

it is more likely that the conclusion
would be true, given the premises, than
that it would not be.
The next President is probably going to be
man, since all Presidents so far have been.

Weak: an argument is weak if it is not

strong, I.e., if it is not more likely that the
conclusion would be true given the
premises, than that it would not be.
Turner is an orthodontist, so hes
probably homeless.

COGENT: An argument is cogent if

a) It is strong, and
b) All its premises are true
Today is Labor Day, so probably all kids
will head back to school tomorrow, since
Labor Day is usually the end of summer
break.

UNCOGENT: an argument is uncogent

if it is weak
Or
not all its premises are true.
Or both of the above.

Five Typical Kinds of

Deductive Argument
Argument from Mathematics
Argument from Definition
Categorical Syllogism
Hypothetical Syllogism
Disjunctive Syllogism

Argument from mathematics:

involves computation
Joe must own at least ten dvds;
hes been buying one a week
since he got that dvd player in June.

Argument from definition:

word meaning
Charley is an ignoramus,
so he doesnt know anything

Categorical syllogism:
two premises plus conclusion
concerns categories (names of classes)
includes quantifying words
all no some
All cats are mammals, and no mammals
are fish, so no cats are fish.

Disjunctive syllogism: eitheror

Either well get Chinese or Thai.
But Bangkok Caf is closed today,
so well have to get Chinese.

Hypothetical syllogism: ifthen

If Washington was assassinated,
hes dead. But he wasnt, so hes not.

Six Typical Kinds of

Inductive Argument
Prediction
Argument from Authority
Argument by Analogy
Inductive Generalization
Causal Inference
Argument from Signs

Prediction: reasoning that something will

happen in the future
The Orioles will probably come in
last place this year because they stink.

Causal inference: from effect

to cause or from cause to effect
(turns on knowledge of cause and effect)
Smith should stop smoking cigarettes,
especially since theres a history of heart
disease in her family.

Argument from authority:

conclusion is based on someones word

Senator Leahy should probably go f

himself since Vice-President Cheney
said he should.

Argument from signs:

conclusion is based on a sign

This must be his office;

it says 238 right there on the door.

Argument from analogy:

turns on a similarity between things

The world is like a huge machine made

up of smaller machines, and since
machines have intelligent creators,
the world must have one too.

Inductive generalization:
moves from fewer to more
Philosophers always write both
fiction and non-fiction. After all, Sartre
and Rousseau both did.

Deduction
Valid/ invalid

Sound/ unsound

Argument from mathematics

Argument from definition
Categorical Syllogism
Hypothetical Syllogism
Disjunctive Syllogism

Induction
Strong/ bad
Cogent/ uncogent
Strong/ weak
Prediction
Causal inference
Argument by Analogy
Inductive Generalization
Appeal to Authority
Argument from Signs