The Basic Issue: Population Growth

And the Quality of Life

Basic Question: How does development affect
population growth?
Major issues relating to this question are:
Will developing countries be capable of improving
the levels of living for their people with the current
and anticipated levels of growth?
How will the LDCs be able to cope with the increasing
labor force?
What are the implications of higher population growth in
the way of reducing poverty in the Worlds poor countries?
Is there a relationship between poverty and family size?

World population growth

Year

Addition in Population
(million)

1650-1750

183

1750-1850

443

1850-1950

1405

1750-1950

1.7 billion in two centuries

1950-1990

More than double in just 4

decades.

World Population Growth 1750-2050

World population growth rates and doubling

times

 Reasons for change in population

growth
Historically ( due to famine, floods,
disease, malnutrition, plague and
war etc.)
Since the 20th century
Advancement in medical science,
Spread of modern sanitation in the
world especially in the developing
countries.

Structure of the Worlds

Population
World population distribution by region, 2003 and 2050
2003

2050

Region

Share of
population (%)

Region

Share of
population (%)

Europe

12

Africa

14

20

North America

Latin America

Asia and
Oceania

60

59

Fertility rate for selected

countries
Country

1970

2006

Bangladesh

7.0

3.06

Colombia

5.3

2.4

Indonesia

5.5

2.4

Jamaica

5.3

2.3

Mexico

4.9

2.4

Thailand

5.5

1.7

Zimbabwe

7.7

3.6

Pakistan

6.3

4.0

Fertility and Population Growth Rates

in Islamic Countries

 The table shows the decline in

fertility rate.
Life expectancy at birth in 1950 was
average 35 to 40 as compared to 62
to 65 years in developed countries.
By 1980 the difference reduce to 16
due to increase in life expectancy in
LDCs.
In 2005 the life expectancy was
about 78 years in developed

Age Structure and Dependency

Burden
Youthful population in developing
world.
Children under age 15 constitute
more than 29% of the total
population of the LDCs as compared
to 17% of the developed countries.
For example in 2005, 44% of
Ethiopias population, 43% of
Nigerias population, and 46% of
Pakistans population.

The hidden momentum of

population growth

The phenomenon of youth dependency leads to an

important concept, the hidden momentum of
population.
The least understood the concept of population
growth is its tendency to continue even after birth
rates have declined substantially.
This momentum can persist for decades after birth
rates drop.
Two reasons
1. High birth rates can not be altered substantially
overnight. Social, economic and institutional forces
which have influenced on fertility rates do not
evaporate on the urging of national leaders. For
example European nations.

 Second reason relates to the age structure

of LDC populations. As the fig given at next
slide, the young people greatly exceed their
parents. When their generation will become
adult, the number of potential parents will
inevitably be much larger than at present.
As compared to LDCs, the developed
countries pyramid is very different. In the
USA the population under age 20 differs
little from the 20-40 and 40-60 age cohorts.

Population distribution pyramid of

Pakistan.

Age Composition of Pakistan

Pakistan Labour Force

Population Growth Rate (%)

Net Addition in Population in

Pakistan

Selected Demographic
Indicators in Pakistan

The Hidden Momentum of

Population Growth
Population growth has a built in
tendency to continue even after birth
rates have declined substantially.
Two basic reasons
1. High birth rates can not be altered
substantially overnight due to social,
cultural, economic and institutional
forces that influenced fertility rates
can not be changes on the desire of
national leaders.

Population Pyramids:
Ethiopia and the USA

 Young people greatly exceed their

parents.
When their generation reaches
adulthood, the number of potential
parents will inevitably be much larger
than at present.
If the potential parents have only two
kids per couple even then the
number of children will be much
more than their parents. It means

 Illustration of the above figure.

the important message of
population momentum is that every
year that passes without a reduction
in fertility means a larger multiple of
the present total population size
before it can eventually level off.

The demographic transition

Stage I: high birthrates and death
rates
Stage II: continued high birthrates,
declining death rates
Stage III: falling birthrates and death
rates, eventually stabilizing

The demographic transition in Western

Euprope

The demographic transition in LDCs.

The causes of high fertility in LDCs:

the Malthusian Model

How technological and social progress allows

nations to avoid the population trap

The Microeconomic household theory

of fertility

The conventional theory of consumer

behavior assumes that an individual max.
his satisfaction from the consumption of
various goods and services subject to
income constraints and relative prices of
all goods and services.
In this theory of fertility analysis, children
are considered as a special kind of
consumption (and in LDCs investment)
good so that fertility becomes a rational
economic response to the consumer's
demand for children relative to other
goods.

The Microeconomic household theory

of fertility

Cd f (Y , Pc, Px, tx), x 1,..., n

Where
Cd is the demand for surviving children
Y is the level of household income
Pc is the net price of children
Px is price of all other goods
tx is the tastes for goods relative to children

Cd f (Y , Pc, Px, tx ), x 1,..., n

Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:

Cd
0
Y
Cd
0
Pc

Cd
0
Px
Cd
0
tx

-Increase/decrease in income
-Increase in Price(opportunity cost)
-Simultaneous increase in income and net child price.(inc. in
wages or female employment opportunity and incr. in tax on
certain number of child.

Conclusion
Higher level of living for low income
families in combination with a
relative increase in the price of
children will motivate HH to have
fewer children while still improving
their welfare.
This is one example of how the
above theory shed light on the
relationship b/w economic
development and population growth.

Demand for children in developing

countries
The theory of fertility assumes that the household demand for

children is determined by the family preferences for a certain

number of surviving(usually male children).
Bcz children in poor countries are seen as economic
investment goods (child labor & support in old ages).
In many developing countries there is a strong cultural and
psychological determinants of family size. (First two or three
children are viewed as consumer goods for which price does
not matter.)
Marginal analysis (decision about an extra child)
Parents are assumed to weight private benefits to private cost
.
Private benefits: expected income as child labor and old age
benefit.
Private cost: Opportunity cost of the mothers time and
opportunity and actual cost of educating children.
Conclusion: When the price or cost of children increases, the
desire to have more children will reduce and vice versa.

Empirical Evidences
Various empirical studies
concluded that
Increase in female job
opportunities and female school
attendance are closely related to
decrease in level of fertility.
Moreover, decrease in children
mortality, also decreases the
desire of more children.

Implications for Development and

Fertility
The effect of social and economic progress in

lowering fertility will be the greatest when the

majority especially the very poor get share in
its benefits.
Birth rates among very poor likely to fall
where the following socioeconomic changes
occurs.
1. Increase in the education of women
2. Increase in the female nonagricultural
employment opportunities.
3. Rise in family income level
4.Reduction in infant mortality
5.Development of old age and other social
security system.

The consequences of high fertility: Some conflicting

opinions.
Population Growth Is A Problem ?
The Extremist Argument : Population and the Global Crisis
Poverty, low levels of living, malnutrition, ill health, environmental
degradation, etc.
The Theoretical Argument: Population-poverty cycles and the need for
family planning programs.
Population growth---reduces individual and national saving --- reduces per
capital income growth of the present population and this further transmit
poverty to next generation.
Econ. Dev is necessary condition to decrease population. But it is not a
sufficient condition. In addition to Eco. Dev. Family planning programs with
technological means are required to limit population growth.
The Empirical Arguments
7 Negatives consequences of population growth
Lower Y per head
Poor people bear burden of population growth
Large population limits educational opportunities
Health of women is harmed
Family food is limited
Environmental degradation occurs due to deforestation, soil erosion, declining
fish and animal stock, unsafe water, urban congestion etc.
Illegal international migration and over urbanization

Population Growth Isnt A

Problem
? the population growth but other issues and that
The problem is not

are
Other Issues
Underdevelopment (As long as the vast majority of people in developing
countries remain impoverished, uneducated, physically and psychologically
weak, the large families will constitute).
Resource Depletion and Environmental Destruction (Developed
countries with less than one quarter of the worlds population consume
more than 80% of the worlds resources. E.g D.Cs peoples consume 16
times more food, energy and material resources)
Population Distribution (Govt. should reduce rural urban migration
and bring about more natural spatial distribution of the population in terms
of available land and other productive resources).
Subordination of Women ( the empowerment of women will inevitably
lead to smaller families and low population growth.)
False Issue
Neocolonial dependence theory (in it the rich nations want to hold down
the development in the LDCs in order to keep their supremacy. Despite of
the fact that they themselves have passed through this stage of
overpopulation and used it for their development.)

Desirable

More population ----- More Consumer Demand

Economies of Scale----Lower production cost.
Labor Supply (sufficient-low cost)
And due to all above high output level is achieved.
Free markets and human ingenuity will solve any and all
problems arising from population growth.
Non-economic reasons (more population to protect
country borders)

Some policy approaches

What developing countries can do:
Long run: increase the price of child
opportunity cost of mothers time
Cost of educating child

Short run: control fertility

Persuade people
Family-planning programs
Economic incentives and disincentives
Redistribute population
Compel people by legislation and penalties (it is
difficult as in india)
Raise womens social and economic status

 What the developed countries can do

Reduce the consumption of resources
Open international migration