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 TRAFFIC FORECASTING
The essence of port traffic foresting :
˜ What kind & tonnages of commodities will move through ?
˜ How will the commodities be packaged & carried ?
˜ What ship types, tonnages & frequency of call will result in ?

The most useful control statistic to each terminal :

˜ The total tonnage handled
˜ The average ship turn-
turn-round time
˜ The average tonnage loaded / discharge per ship
˜ The volume of traffic
˜ The % of ship using cranes or ramps
˜ The average ship length
˜ The maximum draught
Trend of Traffic:
The fact that over the last few years a particular class of traffic
has been increasing does not in itself mean that the trend will
continue. Trends can reverse themselves very quickly.

In developing countries, the reasons of traffic increase will be

one of the following:
a) Traffic is directly dependent on the GNP;
b) Traffic in a specific commodity or product has been
deliberately developed or run down (e.g. national self-
sufficiency in a major foodstuff; development of a new
industry or of mines);
c) A gradual shift in regional centers of production or
consumption is occurring;
d) A gradual shift in transport technology or routing is occurring
(from break-bulk shipment to containers; from maritime to
overland transport, etc.).
 FORECASTING PROCEDURE

1. Analyze past traffic

1.1. Define route, etc.
1.2. Choose cargo classification
1.3. Tabulate
1.4. Calculate trends and analyze their causes
1.5. Extract seasonal effects
2. Review market influences on traffic
and technological trends

2.1. Survey shippers¶ opinions

(public and private)
2.2. Survey shipping companies¶ plans

3. Estimate systematic traffic growth rates

3.1. GNP-
GNP- linked cargoes
3.2. Special cargoes
3.3. Regional/hinterland trends
4. Investigate expected traffic-
traffic-influencing
events

4.1. Industry plans

4.2. Agriculture plans
4.3. Transport links/transit policies
5. Combine all information into alternative
growth and technology scenarios

P

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forecast in each traffic class

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FIGURE: THE FORECASTING PROCEDURE
Simplified forecasting procedure for minor investments

Ú
E: S  Ú ED ÚECAST 
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The annual turnover in the port should be if
possible be subdivided into the following
categories:
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 Commodities should be described in detail :

˜ Type of cargo ˜ Space requirements for cargo

˜ Present and potential cargo
tonnage and volume
˜ Frequency of cargo arrival
˜ Origin and destination of cargo
˜ Times of loading and discharging
˜ Cargo handling rate/time of
storage
˜ Commodity classification
˜ Cargo handling operations
analysis
˜ Storage requirements (cold and
warm)
 t is essential to specify if the goods
require special handling equipment, such
as ;
à oading and unloading equipment.
à Capacities of cranes (mobile or stationary).
à Úork lift truck requirement.
Groups of goods

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 Êelected Operating Characteristics of Inland Waterway Craft
Length Breadth (ft) Draft (ft)
Towboat Horsepower
11
3
.~ 1 to 2
142 34 8 2 to 4
1~ 4 8.~ 4 to ~
Tugboats Horsepower
~5 to 8 21 to 23 8 35 to ~5
d 24 1 to 11 8 to 12
d5 to 1 5 25 to 3 12 to 14 12 to 35
125 to 15 3 to 34 14 to 15 2 to 45
Deck barges Capacity (tons)
11 2~ ~ 35
13 3
d
1d5 35 8 12
Carfloats Capacity Railroad cars
25
4 1 1
3~~ 3~ 1 1d
Scows Capacity (tons)
d 3 d 35
12 38 11 1
13 4 12 135
Open Hopper Capacity (tons)
Barges 1
5 2~ d 35
1d5 3 d 15
2d 5 d 3
Covered Dry Capacity (tons)
cargo Barges 1
5 2~ d 1
1d5 35 d 15
Liquid Cargo Capacity (tons) Galons*)
(Tank) Barges
1
5 2~ d 1 3 2,
1d5 35 d 15 454,
2d 5 d 3 d
,2
 DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS

O. The first step in a systematic forecasting procedure is to examine

the existing traffic in detail preferably on a year-by-year basis
going back for at least three years. ist the major cargos handled
in your port based on two ways; by country of loading or
discharge, and by major cargo class?
2. Discuss, briefly, the aims of the market forecast in the
identification of the potential users and the transport being used
for the various commodities?
3. What factors that affected changes in hinterland?
4. ort A and B, each with its own hinterland demand for traffic of
O , and 4 , units per year respectively. When both ports
are served by the trunk route ship (case (a)), each has only the
standard level of quayside activity associated with its own
hinterland traffic. n case (b), the trunk road ship stops calling at
port B and its traffic is carried in a coastal feeder vessel. n case
(c) the feeder service to B is via land transport. What is the level
of activity in case (a) and (b), and please draw the effect of feeder
services on quayside activity in case (a), (b) and (c).
 DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS

P. Discuss, briefly, what are the technological changes that

affect the traffic forecast?
6. Úor estimating the forecast of the number of calls (the
ship traffic forecast), and of the related size of ship, what
are the important items should be considered?
7. What should or should not be done in helping people to
carry out their own forecasting?
 TABLE
SPECIFIC TRAFFIC FORECASTING BY ROUTE (TAHUN 1d85)

rigin Country
mport (a) South West Europe South East Asia Ja
( in thousand tons ) pa
Ameri
orw Swe Holla
erm Britis Úrenc Total alay Singa ndon hili Total ca
n
egia dia nd an h h sia pure esia pine

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SPECIAL TRAFFIC FORECASTING DELINEATED IN YEARS
mport (a) Scenario A Scenario B
( in thousand tons ) O3 O34 O35 O O  O3 O34 O35 O O 

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