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COURSE INSTRUCTOR:
TEHSEEN IMRAAN
CHAPTER 7
CONTINUOUS
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
INTRODUCTION
This chapter continues our study of
probability distributions by examining
the continuous probability distribution.
Recall that a continuous probability
distribution can assume an infinite
number of values within a given range.
As an example, the weights for a
sample of small engine blocks are:
54.3, 52.7, 53.1 and 53.9 pounds.
INTRODUCTION
We consider two families of
continuous probability distributions,
the uniform probability
distribution and the normal
probability distribution. Both of
these distributions describe the
likelihood of a continuous random
variable that has an infinite number
of possible values within a specified
range.
INTRODUCTION
An example of a uniform probability
distribution is the flight time between
NY and Chicago. Suppose the time to fly
from NY to Chicago is uniformly
distributed within a range of 55 minutes
to 75 minutes. We can determine the
probability that we can fly from NY to
Chicago in less than 60 minutes. Flight
time is measured on a continuous scale.
INTRODUCTION
The normal probability distribution is
described by its mean and standard
deviation. Suppose the life of an
automobile battery follows the
normal distribution with a mean of 36
months and a standard deviation of 3
months. We can determine the
probability that a battery will last
between 36 and forty months. Life of
a battery is measured on a
CHART 7-1
Mean of a Uniform
Distribution
Mean of a Uniform
Distribution
The mean of a uniform distribution is
located in the middle of the interval
between the minimum value of "a " and
a maximum value of "b".
For example: Suppose that the time to
fly from NY to Chicago is uniformly
distributed within a range of 55 minutes
minimum to 75 minutes maximum. The
mean is found by using Formula [71]:
Mean of a Uniform
Distribution
Another key element of the uniform distribution is the height, P(x). The height is the
same for all values of the random variable "x ". It is calculated using Formula[73]:
The relationship between area and probabilities is applied to the uniform distribution and its rectangular
shape using the area of a rectangle formula. Recall that:
Thus for any uniform distribution, the area under the curve is always 1.
For the flight time from NY to Chicago example the area is:
Normal probability
distribution
A continuous probability distribution
uniquely determined by m and s.
The major characteristics of the
normal distribution are:
The normal distribution is "bell-shaped" and
the mean, median, and mode are all equal
and are located in the center of the
distribution. Exactly one-half of the area
under the normal curve is above the center
and one-half of the area is below the center.
Normal probability
distribution
The distribution is symmetrical about the mean.
A vertical line drawn at the mean divides the
distribution into two equal halves and these
halves possess exactly the same shape.
It is asymptotic. That is, the tails of the curve
approach the X-axis but never actually touch it.
A normal distribution is completely described
by its mean and standard deviation. This
indicates that if the mean and standard
deviation are known, a normal distribution can
be constructed and its curve drawn.
Normal probability
distribution
There is a "family" of normal probability
distributions. This means there is a
different normal distribution for each
combination of m and s.
Where:
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
1.0
1.1
0.3665
0.3686
0.3708
0.3729
1.2
0.3869
0.3888
0.3907
0.3925
1.3
0.4049
0.4066
0.4082
0.4099
1.4
0.4207
0.4222
0.4236
0.4251
Empirical Rule
About 68 percent of the area under the normal
curve is within plus one and minus one
standard deviation of the mean. This can be
written as m 1s.
About 95 percent of the area under the normal
curve is within plus and minus two standard
deviations of the mean, written m 2s.
Practically all of the area under the normal
curve is within three standard deviations of the
mean, written m 3s.
Empirical Rule
Example
To illustrate, suppose 60 percent of
the applications for an exclusive
credit card are approved. In a sample
of 200 applications, what is the
probability that 130 or more
applications are approved?
First verify that both n p and nq
exceed 5. For n = 200 and p = 0.6
Continuity correction
factor
The value 0.5 subtracted or added, depending
on the question, to a selected value when a
discrete probability distribution is
approximated by a continuous probability
distribution
The probability of a z value between 0 and
1.37 is 0.4147 (See Appendix D). Therefore
the probability of a z value greater than 1.37
is 0.0853, found by 0.5000 - 0.4147. So, the
probability that 130 or more applications will
be approved is 0.0853.