Population growth

&
Consumption of
resources
1. Exponential growth model
2. Logistic growth model

Chapter 3: Masters & Ela

Out of 7 billions

Poverty

1/5 in bad health

Cannot
Stand
Already!!!
Beh
Tahan !!!

Exponential growth model

Exponential growth is the growth of a
system in which the amount being added
to the system is proportional to the amount
already present: the bigger the system is,
the greater the increase.
Exponential function is a very useful
mathematical tool used in environmental
studies, e.g. population growth, resource
consumption, pollution accumulation and
radioactive decay.
It is a first-order rate process and overall

Exponential growth model

N0=initial
number of
species,
Nt = number of
species after
time t,
and r = growth
rate,
General forms:
Nt = N0(1 + r)t
N = N0ert

Doubling
Atime
quantity that is
growing
exponentially
requires a fixed
amount of time to
double in size,
regardless of the
starting point.
It takes the same
amount of time to
grow from N0 to 2N0
and from 2N0 to 4N0.
2N0 = N0ert , where
t is doubling time
d

When the
rate of
decrease of
a quantity
is
proportional
to the
amount
present,
exponential
growth
becomes
exponential
decay.
N = N0e-kt
k= reaction
rate constant
-1

Exponential Decay

Half-life
Half-life, t ,is the time required for half of a
substance to decay into other elements. Example : if
half life is 1 year and initial mass of the substance is
100 grams, then after 1 year 50 grams will remain; 25
g after another year and so on.
This concept is especially useful for radioactive
isotopes
(Table 2.6,
Masters
& Ela)
Exponential
decay
rate can
be described using a
reaction rate coefficient (k, time-1) or a half-life (t
).

Disaggregated Growth Rates; a

product of a number of individual
factors:

GDP = Gross domestic product

Affluence is
energy
demand per
person
If each factor grows exponentially, Pi=pier
the individual rates (r=r1 + r2 + r3+ rn).
Final estimating growth: P=Poert

it

Technology is
the carbon
emissions per
unit of energy

, then the total rate of growth is the sum of

Resource consumption
If resource production, Q,
follows exponential growth:

Then time required to produce

amount of resource ,Q, can be
estimated:
According to this model, if
resource production continues to
grow exponentially for a long
period of time, the number
becomes unrealistically large.

Logistic growth

Such growth indicates that initially the rate is

exponential followed by slower rates as the
population reaches its carrying capacity (K). It is a
common successful method in biological and
microbiological studies to reflect growth of living
organisms.

For projections of population growth,

a logistic or S-shaped (sigmoidal)
growth curve is normally used.

The logistic curve is

derived from the
following differential
equation
N (t

where N=the population

size, K=the carrying
capacity, r=the
exponential growth rate
(1-N/K) = environmental
resistance

The factor (1 N/K) = the environmental

resistance, as the population grows, the
resistance to further population growth
continuously increases.
To calculate the population at time t

To find r, a factor of instantaneous rate

constant, R0, is introduced:

If carrying capacity is known then it is

For logistic growth, the maximum

sustainable yield is obtained when the
population is half the carrying capacity, N* =
K/2.
The maximum sustainable yield is the
maximum rate that individuals can be
harvested (removed) without reducing the
population size.
Eq3.29
Express in term of the current growth rate, Ro and current size, No:

Eq3.30

Human population growth, definitions:

Crude birth rate, b, which is the number of
live births per 1000 population in a given
year. In the developing countries this rate
reaches 30-40, and in developed countries
it is about 10.
Crude Death Rate, d, which is the number
of deaths per 1000 population per year.
Infant mortality rate, the number of deaths
to infants (under one year old) per 1000
live births in a given year. One of the best
indicators of poverty in a country.

Human population growth, definitions:

Rate of natural increase, r is the difference
between crude birth rate and crude death
rate.
r=bd
Net migration rate, m, is the difference
between immigration and emigration
r= b d + m
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average
number of children that would be born alive
to a woman, assuming that current agespecific birth rates remain constant through
the womans reproductive years (how many
children each woman is likely to have in her

Human population growth, definitions:

Replacement level fertility is the
number of children that a woman must
have, on the average, to replace herself
with daughter in the next generation. It
accounts for differences in the ratio of
male to female births as well as child
mortality rates
Age structure reflects a countrys
population trends (a population pyramid
showing year of the births and number of
women and men born in those years). A
graphical presentation of the data
indicating numbers of people (or % of the
population) in each age category is called

Age structures:

Factors limiting growth of population:

Short-term factor is the disruption of
food distribution in a country, commonly
caused by drought, energy shortage for
food transportation.
Intermediate-term factors include
desertification, dispersal of toxic
pollutants; disruption of energy supplies;
Long-term factors include soil erosion, a
decline in groundwater supplies, and
climate change.
Natural disasters of high magnitude (e.g.
tsunami, earthquake) can result in
significant sudden decrease of
population.

Actual situation
on human
population
growth
Example: Human population in 1960
was 3 billion with a growth rate of
1.2%. Estimate population size in
2010.
N0 = 3x109; r=0.012; t=50 yrs
N = N0xert = 5.5 x109
Use the same data and assume that
human population growth follows a
logistic model where K=150 billions.