Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Unit 10-3
Qualitative Assessment of Risk
Dr. J. Michael Bennett, P. Eng., PMP,
UOIT,
Version 2014-I-01
Change Record
2014-I-01 Initial Creation
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Purpose of Qualitative RA
Focuses on ranking in non-numeric terms
Want to focus on high-priority risks especially
Risk has 3 dimensions
Probability of occurrence
Impact of eventuated risk
Timing of the risk
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Likelihood
What is the chance that it might happen?
Impossible
Unlikely
Likely
Guaranteed to happen
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Risk Consequences
Nature of risk
What are the problems associated with this risk
happening?
Scope of risk
how serious is it AND how much of the project
will be harmed (or how many customers?)
Timing of risk
when and how long will the effects be felt?
Assign a rating
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Evaluating Risks
Air Force example
Binary level
Ternary level
Probability
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Binary Level
There are 4 possibilities (impactprobability)
1 yes-yes (high)
2 yes-no (moderate)
3 no-yes (moderate)
4 no-no (low)
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Ternary Level
9 levels
h-h, h-m, m-h (high)
h-l, m-m, l-h (moderate)
m-l, l-m, l-l (low)
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catastrophic
critical
marginal
negligible
Probability
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frequent
probable
improbable
impossible
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Project
Objective
Very Low
(0.05)
Low
(0.10)
Cost
Insignificant
cost
increase
<10% cost
increase
Time
Insignificant
<05% time
time
increase
increase
05-10% time
increase
10-20%
time
increase
>20% time
increase
Scope
Major areas
of scope
affected
SH wont
accept
scope
reduction
Product
useless
Quality
Only very
Insignificant
demanding
quality
application
decrease
s affected
SH must
approve
quality
reduction
SH wont
accept
quality
reduction
Product
useless
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Moderate
(0.20)
High
(0.40)
Very High
(0.80)
>40% cost
increase
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THREATS
OPPORTUNITIES
0.9 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.72 0.72 0.36 0.18 0.09 0.05
0.7 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56 0.56 0.28 0.14 0.07 0.04
0.5 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.03
0.3 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.02
0.1 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01
0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.05
Impact
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Name
Criteria
Examples
0
1
2
3
4
Below scale
no safety significance
Anomaly overexposure of publican
likely lots
Incident
insig release of R
Atucha Argentina
Serious " very small RoR
Vandellos E, 1989
Acc without
minor RoR
St. Laurent F, 1980
sig offsite RoR
Sig plant dam, death
5 Acc with " limited RoR TMI 1979, Japan 2K
6 Serious A sig RoR
7 Major Acc major RoR, Widespread
Chernobyl
health, envir effects
RoR= Release of Radiation sig=significant
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.4 Risk Categorization
Grouping makes it much more cost-effective
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