Dr.

Arjen Siegmann

How to

WRITE A GREAT THESIS

MSc Finance:
February 26, 13.30-14.15, 2A-00
MSc BA - Financial Management : February 26, 14.3015.15, 2A-00
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Agenda for today

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Get organized
Get a great research topic
Maximizing the potential grade
Writing and reporting
Making modeling choices
Data and filtering
Be aware of the planning fallacy

1. Get organized

Thesis proposal:
decision)

Deadline:

Second week of april

(GO or No-GO

Friday, July 1, 12.00 (noon, mid-day)

Missing the deadline leads to a cap on the grade of 6.0

Second deadline:
internships)

There is no formal defense

Around July 1st , a second reader is assigned (randomly)

Grade and evaluation form within two weeks.

Graduation ceremony: begin October, in the aula.

Friday, August 12, 12.00 (for DHP, approved

Know where to get your information and data

Access journals/newspapers through library website: ub.vu.nl

Also: academic.lexisnexis.nl
VU Datacenter
Bb -> Courses -> Universiteitsbibliotheek VU ->
UBVU_DATACENTRUMUBVU_9999_1

Datastream/WRDS/: check out what is available

RTTM: read the thesis manual

University library resources

Online material for literature search:

Dutch: http://www.ub.vu.nl/nl/hulp-advies/webcursussen/index.aspx
English: http://www.ub.vu.nl/en/help-advice/online-courses/index.aspx

Overview of databases:
The library manages an account on blackboard that gives a good
overview. You have to sign up for the course
UBVU_DATACENTRUMUBVU_9999_1, which can be found among
courses offered by the library.
Literature searches: the library offers a 1h class on March 2 nd at 12.45.
If you are interested in attending this class, please send an email to
j.schnitzler@vu.nl (Only sign up if you actually intend to show up)

2. Get a great research topic

A research topic is the the area in which you are developing a

research proposal. The research proposal (deadline early april) is
your actual plan of work. Ideas to get good topics:
1. Start from what you know: Read up from your coursework:
papers/slides/assignment and write down some leads, i.e., things
that could be a starting point to develop a research proposal.
2. Combine two ideas: Many great theses have come from combining
two theories or ideas that already existed, into a new testable
hypothesis.
3. Challenge grand theories: You learn some theories, ways of
looking at problems during your studies (CAPM, DCF, value at risk,
loss aversion, overconfidence, etc). Think about how you could
challenge or test them in a new context. Take a quantum leap.
4. Solutions in need of a problem (quant.): Take a technique that you
like and look for problems where you could apply the technique.
E.g., value at risk, VAR, portfolio optimization, derivative pricing.

Hypotheses formulation: The NULL

Having a good null hypothesis is of crucial importance

It is
Your reference point I expect that...
A way of thinking that is founded on previous academic findings If
markets are efficient, then ...

Be heroic:
The ultimate consequence: If the disposition effect is real, then I
should find ...
If markets are efficient, then ...

Research on cloud seeding,

(from the FT, june 15 2012 The rainmakers)

Dan Breed, an NCAR scientist attached to the scheme says with the
world-weariness of his tribe, I dont care if the snowfall increases
or decreases. My real goal is to make sure that we have enough
data to say something definitive about the experiment. We dont
want to spend all this money and say, Gee, its inconclusive. We
want to be able to draw conclusions, scientifically based
conclusions, from it.

3. Maximizing the potential grade

The grade depends on many criteria (see thesis manual).

What else to do to maximize the potential grade?

Show up at meetings (recommended: once every two/three weeks)
Prepare for appointments by sending questions in advance (24 hrs).
The questions are specific, and you include in the question only
relevant information, and what you did to solve the problem yourself.
Respond to feedback in a smart way
Ask for feedback (How am I doing? Whats the biggest improvement I
could make?)

This doesnt work:

choosing an easy topic
(compare with olympic diving)
saying I want at least a ...
(supervisor is not a co-author)

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4. Writing and reporting

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Number of pages
Writing
Literature review
Lay-out
Avoid plagiarism

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a. Number of pages

As short as possible (but not shorter)

Having too much can be caused by

Deriving the Sharpe ratio

Appendix Tables 1 to 27 with regressions
Single and multiple regressions
List of 827 companies used for this study
The complete 100x100 binomial tree

Should you show all possible models/regressions? NO. Publication bias exists, and
we know it, so dont bother. Report only what is remarkable.

/rmkb()l/: Worthy of attention. (Worth making a remark about)

Kill your darlings.

Typically: 30 50 pages.
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b. Writing

Awriteris someone for whomwritingis moredifficultthan it is

for other people (Thomas Mann)

Cochrane: writing tips for PhD students

Colleague: I can see it when they have read it

Paragraphing: Stick to one idea per paragraph

Best practice: each paragraph starts with a topical sentence
Avoid paragraph sprawl: Digressions and deviations in the form of
irrelevant details or shifts in focus

(upon request) Do not copy abstracts

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c. Recurring problems with a literature review: no clear

message.

What would you like to read yourself?

What are the big ideas or important results? Group them and use one
paragraph for one idea.

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d. Lay-out / visual quality of the thesis

Bottom-line: show that you can take the perspective of the reader
Apply consistent styles, formatting and spell-check to every piece
that you hand in

Tables: take care of no. of decimals, col/row names, caption and

title above

Figure: B&W, axes labels, legend, title, caption and title below

(Lay-out is part of the assessment)

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e. Avoid Plagiarism

Plagiarism: A verbatim copy of text without quoting the source

Includes paraphrasing by shifting some words back and forth

If the Safeassignment score is too high and plagiarism is detected,

you will be referred to the examination board
Possible punishment: start over, come back next year, etc.

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5. Making modeling choices for parameters/variables

Parameter choices

What discount rate to use for my DCF?

What % to pick for transaction costs?
What risk aversion parameter?
Which risk-free rate?
Which variables to include in my regression?
What level of transaction costs in my investment model?

Typical approaches to make modeling choices

1. Try several approaches and measure the effect
2. Solve the reverse problem: for what modeling choice do you get
certain outcomes?

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6. Data and filtering

Sample selection (Time period, number of companies, etc.)

Consider it as a restriction rather than a choice
Make a separate, simple log file where you note selections, e.g.,
Deleted observations with asset size < 1 mln
Delete obs. with negative equity

Later on, write it down in your Data section like

The following filters are applied: Observations with negative equity or asset
size below $1 mln are deleted
Given the original number of obs, and the final number after filtering

A hackers mentality is sometimes needed: I cannot get what I

want, but maybe I can work with what I can get.
Creativity that can affect your grade in a positive way

A good table of descriptive statistics (early on) can save you a lot
of headaches

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7. Be aware of the planning fallacy

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Some ideas:

Write down important dates in your agenda

Stick to deadlines (research proposal, initial results, draft)
Set priorities (no holidays in april/may/june)
Identify no-regret types of work and do them early on
Setting up a referencing system (Thomson Endnote, Zotero, etc.)
Go to the Datacenter early on (February or March) and find out what is available
exactly.

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Writing a great thesis The Movie

A few short movies, with research and writing tips.

Check out the thesis page on Blackboard in the
coming weeks.

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Questions

1.
2.
3.
4.

How are supervisors assigned?

Can I start now, and finish in the second round? (september)
How do I combine the thesis with an internship?
Does a good thesis (grade) help with finding a job? Does it hurt if I
mess up?

5. What if my research results are bad?

6. What if my original idea doesnt work?
7. What if my computer code is wrong and I cant find the error?
8. What if I get stuck?
9. What if my supervisor does not answer his/her email?
10.Should I minimize the number of appointments with my
supervisor?
11.

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