Professional Documents
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IN GREEN TECH
SUNPOWER AND OTHER IDEAS
T. J. RODGERS
PRESIDENT & CEO
MAY 5, 2010
HIGH EFFICIENCY
BACK CONTACT
250’
7’
14 MOTORS
@ 2 HP EA
2000 PRODUCT
HIGH EFFICIENCY
BACK CONTACT
MEDIUM COST
HIGH EFFICIENCY
BACK CONTACT
VERY LOW COST
SUNPOWER
20 - 22% Silicon wafer
N-type Silicon – 270 um thick
EFFICIENCY P N P N P N
Electrical contacts
CONVENTIONA
N
L Electrical
14 - 17% contacts
EFFICIENCY P
21%
= 50% MORE POWER
14%
SUNPOWER CONFIDENTIAL
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 16
MODULE PRICING
MODULE PRICE ($/WATT)
$100.00
$62.20 in 1976
$10.00
$8.36 in 1990
$3.67 in 2002
$2.11 in 2010
$1.00
0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
CUMULATIVE MODULE SHIPMENTS (MW)
Source: Strategies Unlimited, 1999, inflation corrected to constant 2001 dollars
3,500
On-Grid Utility
Industry Shipm ents (M W )
3,000
22% CAGR On-Grid Commercial
2,500
On-Grid Residential
2,000
Indoor
1,500
43% CAGR Consumer Power
1,000
Remote Habitation
500
Remote Industrial
0
20
SUNPOWER CONFIDENTIAL
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 27
SCREEN PRINTER
SUNPOWER CONFIDENTIAL
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 28
METALIZATION
SUNPOWER CONFIDENTIAL
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 29
SUNPOWER MODULE
COMPETING 75 W
SUNPOWER 95 W
Canada
3 Dealers CT
IL 2 Dealers
1 Dealer VT
1 Dealer
WI
1 Dealer
NY RI
Colorado Ohio 8 Dealers 1 Dealer
8 Dealers 1 Dealer
NorCal NJ
35 Dealers 6 Dealers
PA
3 Dealers VA/MD/DC
New Mexico NC/SC 3 Dealers
1 Dealer 2 Dealers
Arizona
Texas South East
SoCal 3 Dealers
3 Dealer 1 Dealer
37 Dealers
Hawaii
2 Dealers
78 Residential only
11 Small Commercial only
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL
17 Both (Residential and Small Commercial) 32
2006: ACQUIRED POWERLIGHT
$M
1600 $1,430
1400
1200
1000
$774
800
600
400 $237
200 $79
$11
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$M
$250
$206
$200
$150
$116
$100
$50 $36
$0
-$50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
42
43
INVESTMENT (4 ROUNDS):
$142.8 MILLION
52.0 MILLION SHARES
$2.74 AVG. SHARE PRICE
RETURN:
$677 MILLION CASH
$2,516 MILLION SHARE DISTRIBUTION
$61.38 AVG. SHARE PRICE
ROI:
22.4 TO 1
$SPWRA
80
70 SPIN $70.93
(MKT. CAP. $6.0B) GERMAN SUBSIDY CAP
60 ITALIAN SUBSIDY UNCERTAIN
GREEK MELTDOWN
50
SOLAR INDUSTRY $150B $40B
40
TODAY $16.05
30
(MKT. CAP. $1.5B)
20
Dr. Borlaug left Mexico in 1963 with a harvest six times what it was when he arrived. From acres of arable land
sprung a hyperactive strain of wheat engineered by the scientist in his laboratory, fertilized and nurtured
according to his methods, and irrigated by systems he helped to design. Mexico's peasantry was not only fed --
it was selling wheat on the international market.
Over the next 30 years, Dr. Borlaug devoted himself to the undeveloped world, undoing crop failure in India and
Pakistan, and rescuing rice in the Philippines, Indonesia and China. He has arguably saved more lives than
anyone in history. Maybe one billion. Dr. Borlaug was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970, yet his name
remains largely unknown.
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL SOURCE: The Wall Street Journal
59
ZERO POPULATION GROWTH
Average
World ZPG Rate
U.S. ZPG Rate
Russia E.U. Avg.
China
Swtz.
Japan
Source: CIA
—H.L. Mencken
1880 – 1956
It’s September 29, 1980, Simon Ehrlich agrees. He selects copper, Human population grew by 800
challenges Ehrlich to pick a basket of chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten— million.
five commodity metals. metals he‘s sure will appreciate.
Every metal declined in price.
Simon bets they’ll be cheaper in ten Ehrlich buys $200 of each metal, on
years. paper, setting an index price.
SOURCE: NYT
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL SOURCE: English and Wales High Court Decisions
75
(IPCC)
380
280
YOU ARE
HERE
This figure shows changes of the global average temperature adopted by the IPCC during the last 100 years or so. It also shows the temperature
changes in the Arctic (both positive and negative), which are much larger than those of the global average. (I. Polyakov)
The figure indicates also the consumed energy sources, coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear energy during the same period. It can be seen that the
temperature increased from 1910 to 1945 and then decreased from 1945 to 1975; the latter period coincided with the period of a rapid increase of
fossil energy consumption. The cause of this temperature increase and decrease is not well known. Some scientists (and news media) declared at
the time of the decrease from 1945 to 1975 that a new Ice Age was coming and that we should urgently prepare for it with rhetoric that sounds very
similar to that used for the present global warming. The temperature began to increase again from about 1975. One can see at least that the
relationship between temperature changes and the amount of CO2 released into the air is not simple at all.
-- Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Founding Director of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF)
SOURCE: Syun-Ichi Akasofu
1200 AD
1990
IPCC 1995
IPCC 2001
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL SOURCE: William Happer, Princeton
89
ENHANCED AGRICULTURAL YIELDS FROM MORE CO 2
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL SOURCE: William Happer, Princeton
90
HURRICANES ARE NOT INCREASING
DODGE HEMI
ENGINE 1969
INVENTION OF
MODEL-T 1908
FIRST OIL
DRILLING 1869
Over the past few years, this story has cropped up many
times, based first on a World Wildlife Fund report in 2002
and later on the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment from
2004. Both relied extensively on research published in
2001 by the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the World
Conservation Union.
But what this group really told us was that of the twenty
distinct subpopulations of polar bears, one or possibly two
were declining in Baffin Bay; more than half were know to
be stable; and two subpopulations were actually increasing
around the Beaufort Sea. Moreover, it is reported that the
global polar-bear population has increased dramatically
over the past decades, from about five thousand members
in the 1960s to twenty-five thousand today, through stricter
hunting regulation.” —Bjorn Lomborg, 2008
T. J. RODGERS
PRESIDENT & CEO
MAY 5, 2010
“It is my intention to destroy your career as a liar. If you produce one more editorial against
climate change, I will launch a campaign against your professional integrity. I will call you a liar
and charlatan to the Harvard community of which you and I are members. I will call you out as
a man who has been brought to Corporate America. Go ahead, guy. Take me on.”
Michael T. Eckhart, President
American Council of Renewable Energy, 2007
106
—Rahm Emanuel
2008
15%
A 300: 20.8%
10%
5%
0%
1
5
5
7
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
1.
2.
2.
1.
1.
2.
2.
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
.0
.2
.6
.6
.0
.4
.4
.8
.0
.2
.4
.8
.2
.6
20
20
21
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
22
22
22
22
108 108
109
GOVERNMENT AS THE
TJR SOLUTION TO PROBLEMS
NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 113
A LACK OF SOCIALISM IS
THE PROBLEM
BELIEVE IN
FREE
MARKETS
Tucson , Arizona
124
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL
Solar PV Power Plants Are Cost Competitive
Conventional
$216- 334
Gas Peaking
125
Cell/Panel
Silicon
Efficiency
2012
Residential Example
126