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HOW TO MAKE $3 BILLION

IN GREEN TECH
SUNPOWER AND OTHER IDEAS

T. J. RODGERS
PRESIDENT & CEO
MAY 5, 2010

NATIONAL VENTURE CAPITAL ASSOCIATION


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 1
PHILOSOPHY
BE A GLOBAL WARMING SKEPTIC LIKE ME
DO NOT RELY (FOR LONG) ON GOVERNMENT FUNDING
DEMAND STAND ALONE ECONOMIC VIABILITY
DO IT THE OLD FASHIONED WAY
SUPERIOR TALENT
SUPERIOR TECHNOLOGY
RELENTLESS DRIVE FOR SUCCESS BASED ON SELF INTEREST (IPO)
DO IT THE VERY OLD FASHIONED WAY
BELIEVE IN FREE MARKETS
BELIEVE IN THE BILL OF RIGHTS
FREEDOM OF SPEECH (1ST AMENDMENT)
PRIVATE PROPERTY OWNERSHIP (4TH AMENDMENT)
LIMITED GOVERNMENT (10TH AMENDMENT)
RUN LIKE HELL WHEN YOU HEAR ANY OF THE FOLLOWING:
GREEN JOBS, GREEN ECONOMY…
GOVERNMENT-INDUSTRY “PARTNERSHIP”
CARBON TAX

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 2


OPPOSED
GOVERNMENT
SUBSIDIES TO
HIS OWN
INDUSTRY

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 3


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 4
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 5
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 6
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 7
SILICON LIGHT MACHINES: FRIEDMAN ON SUBSIDIES
Milton: “Do you believe in the flex tax?”
TJ: “Yes.”
Milton: “Why?”
TJ: “It removes the deduction game—the government's meddling in
personal choices—and eliminates billions of dollars of tax
preparation overhead.”
Milton: “Good. Then, of course you’re not going to take any deductions
on your income tax this year, correct?”
TJ: “No!”
Milton: “Why?”
TJ: “Because the low flat tax rate has not passed yet and I would
pay about 55% of my income without deductions.”
Milton: “So, you will take every deduction legally available to you under
the current law, even as you argue that the flat tax is better for
the country?”
TJ: “Yes.”
Milton: “So why would you do any less for your shareholders? Get
everything they are entitled to and still argue for an end to
government intervention into your business.”

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 8


2000: NEW HEADQUARTERS BUILDING
350KW, 33% OF TOTAL CONSUMPTION, ROI = 7 YRS

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 9


DICK SWANSON
SUPERIOR TALENT
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 10
EARLY PRODUCT
DISH CONCENTRATOR

HIGH EFFICIENCY
BACK CONTACT

VERY HIGH COST

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 11


NASA’s SOLAR CHALLENGER

250’

7’

39,375 WATTS = 53 HORSEPOWER


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 12
NASA’s SOLAR CHALLENGER

WORLD RECORD: 96,863 FT

14 MOTORS
@ 2 HP EA

2000 PRODUCT
HIGH EFFICIENCY
BACK CONTACT
MEDIUM COST

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 13


2003: THE A-300 SOLAR CELL

HIGH EFFICIENCY
BACK CONTACT
VERY LOW COST

BACK SIDE FRONT SIDE

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 14


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 15
SUPERIOR
TECHNOLOGY

SUNPOWER
20 - 22% Silicon wafer
N-type Silicon – 270 um thick
EFFICIENCY P N P N P N

Electrical contacts

CONVENTIONA
N
L Electrical
14 - 17% contacts
EFFICIENCY P

21%
= 50% MORE POWER
14%

SUNPOWER CONFIDENTIAL
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 16
MODULE PRICING
MODULE PRICE ($/WATT)
$100.00
$62.20 in 1976

$10.00
$8.36 in 1990

$3.67 in 2002

$2.11 in 2010

$1.00
0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
CUMULATIVE MODULE SHIPMENTS (MW)
Source: Strategies Unlimited, 1999, inflation corrected to constant 2001 dollars

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 17


NAVIGANT MARKET FORECAST

3,500
On-Grid Utility
Industry Shipm ents (M W )

3,000
22% CAGR On-Grid Commercial
2,500
On-Grid Residential
2,000
Indoor
1,500
43% CAGR Consumer Power
1,000
Remote Habitation
500
Remote Industrial
0

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 18


FIRST: CALIFORNIA RESIDENTIAL

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 19


Due Papaveri Agriturismo
Modena, Italy

20

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL


2007: SOLAR SUPPLY CHAIN

INDUSTRY 2.1W (14%)


SUNPOWER 3.1W (21%)

6” CELL PANEL INSTALLED


$2.50/WATT(C) $3.50/WATT(C) $8.00/WATT(P)

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 21


2003: SUNPOWER’S NEW (USED) MANILA
FACTORY

100 MEGAWATT @ CAPACITY 32M WAFERS/YEAR


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 22
BIG SCALE

100 MW / YR = 32.3 M WAFERS / YR


X 8G / WATT = 800 TONNES SI / YR
= 15 TONNES / WK
= 2 TONNES / DAY

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 23


THE OLD THE NEW

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 24


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 25
AUTO LOAD / UNLOAD

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 26


ETCHER, CLEANER

SUNPOWER CONFIDENTIAL
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 27
SCREEN PRINTER

SUNPOWER CONFIDENTIAL
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 28
METALIZATION

SUNPOWER CONFIDENTIAL
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 29
SUNPOWER MODULE
COMPETING 75 W

SUNPOWER 95 W

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 30


SUNPOWER
EXTREME HOME MAKEOVER

PIESTEWA FAMILY IN ARIZONA


SUNPOWER SOLAR PANELS
(SEASON FINALE)

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 31


VAR Business Unit
Dealer base

EOQ2 2007 : 123 active Dealers

Canada
3 Dealers CT
IL 2 Dealers
1 Dealer VT
1 Dealer
WI
1 Dealer
NY RI
Colorado Ohio 8 Dealers 1 Dealer
8 Dealers 1 Dealer

NorCal NJ
35 Dealers 6 Dealers

PA
3 Dealers VA/MD/DC
New Mexico NC/SC 3 Dealers
1 Dealer 2 Dealers

Arizona
Texas South East
SoCal 3 Dealers
3 Dealer 1 Dealer
37 Dealers

Hawaii
2 Dealers

78 Residential only
11 Small Commercial only
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL
17 Both (Residential and Small Commercial) 32
2006: ACQUIRED POWERLIGHT

PowerLight's SunTile™ Solar Systems

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 33


U.S. Navy
Coronado, CA – 924 kW

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 34


Extend Technology Leadership:
PowerTracker®

Lowest cost tracker

Up to 35% more energy

Single controller drives


250 kw

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 35


Bavaria Solarpark
Mühlhausen, Germany – 6.3 MW of 10 MW total

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 36


NELLIS VERSION V1

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 37


NELLIS AFB
POWER: 15 MW
ENERGY: 40 GWh/YEAR
SYSTEM COST: ~$100M
SIZE: 140 ACRES

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 38


NELLIS AFB

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 39


STRONG REVENUE GROWTH

$M
1600 $1,430
1400
1200
1000
$774
800
600
400 $237
200 $79
$11
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 40


STRONG PRETAX EARNINGS

$M
$250
$206
$200

$150
$116
$100

$50 $36

$0

-$50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 41


Governor Schwarzenegger
Richmond Office

42

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL


President Obama at FPL DeSoto
Arcadia, Florida

43

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL


SUNPOWER—HOME RUN

INVESTMENT (4 ROUNDS):
$142.8 MILLION
52.0 MILLION SHARES
$2.74 AVG. SHARE PRICE

RETURN:
$677 MILLION CASH
$2,516 MILLION SHARE DISTRIBUTION
$61.38 AVG. SHARE PRICE

ROI:
22.4 TO 1

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 44


SPWA STOCK PRICE TREND—POST SPIN

$SPWRA
80

70 SPIN $70.93
(MKT. CAP. $6.0B) GERMAN SUBSIDY CAP
60 ITALIAN SUBSIDY UNCERTAIN
GREEK MELTDOWN
50
SOLAR INDUSTRY $150B  $40B
40
TODAY $16.05
30
(MKT. CAP. $1.5B)
20

10 DO NOT RELY (FOR LONG)


ON GOVERNMENT FUNDS
0
Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 45


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 46
DEMAND STAND ALONE
ECONOMIC VIABILITY
BELIEVE IN FREE MARKETS

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 47


THE COPENHAGEN SUMMIT 2009

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 48


GLOBAL WARMING—A SECULAR RELIGION

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 49


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 50
“Population, when unchecked, increases in a
geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only
in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance
with numbers will show the immensity of the
first power in comparison of the second.”
—Thomas Malthus, British Economist, 1798

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 51


COERCIVE UTOPIANS
VS. LIMITED
GOVERNMENT

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 52


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 53
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 54
FEWER FEED MORE

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 55


THE AIR IS MUCH CLEANER THAN IT WAS 25 YEARS AGO

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 56


SOCIALISM AS A SOLUTION

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 57


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 58
WHO IS THIS MAN?
Borlaug’s Revolution
Joe Malchow/ THE WALL STREET JOURNAL–
July 2007

In 1944, when Norman Borlaug arrived in Mexico, the nation


was in the grip of crop failure. Cereals like wheat are dietary
staples. But in Mexico, an airborne fungus was causing an
epidemic of "stem rust," and acreage once flush with golden
wheat and maize yielded little more than sunbaked sallow
weeds. Coupled with a population surge, famine seemed in
the offing.

Dr. Borlaug left Mexico in 1963 with a harvest six times what it was when he arrived. From acres of arable land
sprung a hyperactive strain of wheat engineered by the scientist in his laboratory, fertilized and nurtured
according to his methods, and irrigated by systems he helped to design. Mexico's peasantry was not only fed --
it was selling wheat on the international market.
Over the next 30 years, Dr. Borlaug devoted himself to the undeveloped world, undoing crop failure in India and
Pakistan, and rescuing rice in the Philippines, Indonesia and China. He has arguably saved more lives than
anyone in history. Maybe one billion. Dr. Borlaug was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970, yet his name
remains largely unknown.

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL SOURCE: The Wall Street Journal
59
ZERO POPULATION GROWTH

Global average birth rate for ZPG≈2.33 children per woman

WEALTH ECONOMIC FREEDOM


FRASIER INSTITUTE

Average
World ZPG Rate
U.S. ZPG Rate
Russia E.U. Avg.
China
Swtz.
Japan

Source: CIA

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 60


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 61
THE “TIPPING POINT” IN 1969

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 62


U Thant, U.N. SECRETARY-GENERAL (1961-1972)

BORN: BURMA (MYNAMAR) 1909


TEACHER, HEADMASTER
SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF INFORMATION
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 63
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep
the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to
be led to safety) by menacing it with and
endless series of hobgoblins, all of them
imaginary.”

—H.L. Mencken
1880 – 1956

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 64


INTELLECTUAL
ARROGANCE, AKA HIGHER
LIFE FORMS

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 65


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 66
HIGHER LIFE FORMS

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 67


MALTHUS, ALIVE AND WELL

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 68


JULIAN SIMON MAKES PAUL EHRLICH A BET

JULIAN SIMON PAUL EHRLICH TEN YEARS


Economist Biologist LATER

It’s September 29, 1980, Simon Ehrlich agrees. He selects copper, Human population grew by 800
challenges Ehrlich to pick a basket of chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten— million.
five commodity metals. metals he‘s sure will appreciate.
Every metal declined in price.
Simon bets they’ll be cheaper in ten Ehrlich buys $200 of each metal, on
years. paper, setting an index price.

DATA: WIRED Magazine

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 69


EHRLICH LOST

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 70


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 71
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 72
The New York Times on
“An Inconvenient Truth”

A.O. Scott Mar 24 2006

Intellectually exhilarating…the idea


that worrying about the effect of
carbon-dioxide emissions on the
world's climate makes you some
kind of liberal kook is as tired as the
image of Mr. Gore as a stiff,
humorless speaker…He is, rather,
the surprisingly engaging vehicle
for some very disturbing
information…the images are stark,
illuminating and powerful…I can't
think of another movie in which the
display of a graph elicited gasps of
horror.

SOURCE: NYT

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 73


AN INCONVENIENT MANDATE IN BRITAIN
Every British Teen to See Gore's An Inconvenient Truth
CBC - 02 February 2007
“The British government will send a copy of Al Gore's film about global warming, An Inconvenient Truth, to every
secondary school in the country, the U.K. environment minister announced Friday.

Schools must warn of Gore climate film bias


DAILY MAIL - 03 October 2007
“Schools will have to issue a warning before they
show pupils Al Gore's controversial film about
global warming, a judge indicated yesterday. Mr.
Justice Burton is due to deliver a ruling on the
case next week, but yesterday he said he would
be saying that Gore's Oscar-winning film does
promote 'partisan political views'.
This means that teachers will have to warn pupils
that there are other opinions on global warming
and they should not necessarily accept the views
of the film.”

SOURCE: The Daily Mail

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 74


11 “FACTS” CHALLENGED
1. The film claims that melting snows on Mount Kilimanjaro evidence global warming. The Government’s expert was forced to
concede that this is not correct.
2. The film suggests that evidence from ice cores proves that rising CO2 causes temperature increases over 650,000 years. The
Court found that the film was misleading: over that period the rises in CO2 lagged behind the temperature rises by 800-2000
years.
3. The film uses emotive images of Hurricane Katrina and suggests that this has been caused by global warming. The
Government’s expert had to accept that it was “not possible” to attribute one-off events to global warming.
4. The film shows the drying up of Lake Chad and claims that this was caused by global warming. The Government’s expert
had to accept that this was not the case.
5. The film claims that a study showed that polar bears had drowned due to disappearing arctic ice. It turned out that Mr Gore
had misread the study: in fact four polar bears drowned and this was because of a particularly violent storm.
6. The film threatens that global warming could stop the Gulf Stream throwing Europe into an ice age: the Claimant’s evidence
was that this was a scientific impossibility.
7. The film blames global warming for species losses including coral reef bleaching. The Government could not find any
evidence to support this claim.
8. The film suggests that the Greenland ice covering could melt causing sea levels to rise dangerously. The evidence is that
Greenland will not melt for millennia.
9. The film suggests that the Antarctic ice covering is melting, the evidence was that it is in fact increasing.
10.The film suggests that sea levels could rise by 7 meters causing the displacement of millions of people. In fact the evidence
is that sea levels are expected to rise by about 32cm over the next hundred years and that there is no such threat of massive
migration.
11.The film claims that rising sea levels have caused the evacuation of certain Pacific islands to New Zealand. The Government
are unable to substantiate this and the Court observed that this appears to be a false claim.

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL SOURCE: English and Wales High Court Decisions
75
(IPCC)

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 76


ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE HAS RISEN

380

280

Source: IPCC 2007

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 77


THE FAMOUS “HOCKEY STICK” CURVE

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 78


VOSTOK ICE CORE DATA NO MODEL EXPLAINS
THIS DATA

YOU ARE
HERE

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 79


CO2 BUILD UP FOLLOWS TEMPERATURE RISES
NOT VICE-VERSA

SOURCE: William Happer, Princeton

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 80


GLOBAL WARMING PRECEDED THE CO2 BUILD UP

This figure shows changes of the global average temperature adopted by the IPCC during the last 100 years or so.   It also shows the temperature
changes in the Arctic (both positive and negative), which are much larger than those of the global average. (I. Polyakov)

The figure indicates also the consumed energy sources, coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear energy during the same period. It can be seen that the
temperature increased from 1910 to 1945 and then decreased from 1945 to 1975; the latter period coincided with the period of a rapid increase of
fossil energy consumption.  The cause of this temperature increase and decrease is not well known.  Some scientists (and news media) declared at
the time of the decrease from 1945 to 1975 that a new Ice Age was coming and that we should urgently prepare for it with rhetoric that sounds very
similar to that used for the present global warming.  The temperature began to increase again from about 1975.  One can see at least that the
relationship between temperature changes and the amount of CO2 released into the air is not simple at all.

-- Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Founding Director of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF)
SOURCE: Syun-Ichi Akasofu

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 81


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 82
IPCC ‘90: IT WAS HOTTER IN 1200 AD THAN IT IS TODAY

1200 AD

1990

Source: IPCC 1990

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 83


TROPICAL GREENLAND 1200 AD
GREENLAND SETTLEMENTS BEGAN ABOUT 986
(MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD 1100-1300 AD)
THE LAST SCANDINAVIANS WERE GONE BY THE LATE 1400’S
(LITTLE ICE AGE 1500-1900 AD)

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 84


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 85
IPCC’95: THE MEDIEVAL WARMING PERIOD WAS TRUNCATED

LITTLE ICE AGE

IPCC 1995

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 86


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 87
IPCC ’01: THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD
AND LITTLE ICE AGE ARE GONE!

THE FAMOUS “HOCKEY STICK” CURVE

IPCC 2001

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 88


IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT 380 PPM OF CO2 IS BAD

WHAT IS THE OPTIMAL LEVEL?

THE 280 PPM PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVEL?

THE 1,000 PPM USED IN GREENHOUSES?

THE 8,000 PPM SAFE LIMIT ON SUBMARINES?

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL SOURCE: William Happer, Princeton
89
ENHANCED AGRICULTURAL YIELDS FROM MORE CO 2

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL SOURCE: William Happer, Princeton
90
HURRICANES ARE NOT INCREASING

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 91


NEITHER ARE TORNADOES

Source: W. Happer, Princeton

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 92


SEA LEVELS ARE RISING SLOWLY YOU ARE
—AS THEY DO AFTER EVERY ICE AGE HERE

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 93


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 94
20 CM/CENTURY
= 7.9”/CENTURY

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 95


SEA LEVELS RISE AND FALL NATURALLY

DODGE HEMI
ENGINE 1969

INVENTION OF
MODEL-T 1908

FIRST OIL
DRILLING 1869

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 96


“POLAR BEARS WILL BE CONSIGNED TO HISTORY…”
World Wildlife Fund
“Paddling across the ice, polar bears are beautiful animals.
To Greenland—part of my own nation, Denmark—they are
a symbol of pride. The loss of this animal would be a
tragedy. But the real story of the polar bear is instructive.
… Once you look closely at the supporting data, the
narrative falls apart.

Over the past few years, this story has cropped up many
times, based first on a World Wildlife Fund report in 2002
and later on the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment from
2004. Both relied extensively on research published in
2001 by the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the World
Conservation Union.
But what this group really told us was that of the twenty
distinct subpopulations of polar bears, one or possibly two
were declining in Baffin Bay; more than half were know to
be stable; and two subpopulations were actually increasing
around the Beaufort Sea. Moreover, it is reported that the
global polar-bear population has increased dramatically
over the past decades, from about five thousand members
in the 1960s to twenty-five thousand today, through stricter
hunting regulation.” —Bjorn Lomborg, 2008

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 97


ANTARCTIC ICE IS GETTING THICKER, NOT MELTING

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 98


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 99
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 100
HOW TO MAKE $3 BILLION
IN GREEN TECH
SUNPOWER AND OTHER IDEAS

T. J. RODGERS
PRESIDENT & CEO
MAY 5, 2010

NATIONAL VENTURE CAPITAL ASSOCIATION


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 101
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 102
THE DEBATE IS NOT OVER
“The debate in the scientific community is over."
Al Gore, on “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”
June 2006.
“So the house passed the Waxman-Markey climate-change bill. In political terms, it was a
remarkable achievement. But 212 representatives voted no. A handful of these no votes came
from representatives who considered the bill too weak…And as I watched the deniers make
their arguments, I couldn’t help thinking that I was watching a form of treason—treason against
the planet.”
Paul Krugman, New York Times
June 29, 2009

“It is my intention to destroy your career as a liar. If you produce one more editorial against
climate change, I will launch a campaign against your professional integrity. I will call you a liar
and charlatan to the Harvard community of which you and I are members. I will call you out as
a man who has been brought to Corporate America. Go ahead, guy. Take me on.”
Michael T. Eckhart, President
American Council of Renewable Energy, 2007

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 103


APPENDIX

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 104


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 105
Residence
Connecticut

106

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 106


“You never want a serious crisis to go to
waste”.

—Rahm Emanuel
2008

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 107


Cell Efficiency: 1% Gain = 5% System Cost Benefit

Gen 2 Cells Mean Efficiency = 22.4%


25%
Gen 2: 22.4%
20%

15%
A 300: 20.8%

10%

5%

0%
1

5
5

7
0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

1.

1.

1.

2.

2.
1.

1.

2.

2.
-2

-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2
.0

.2

.6

.6

.0

.4
.4

.8

.0

.2

.4

.8

.2

.6
20

20

21
20

20

20

21

21

21

21

22

22

22

22
108 108

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 108


MALAYSIAN FAB 3 (1,000 MW)
Fab 3
Construction Progress

109

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 110
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 111
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 112
“In this present crisis, government
is not the solution to our problem;
government is the problem.”
—Ronald Reagan

“We will meet these challenges,


not through big government.”
—Bill Clinton

GOVERNMENT AS THE
TJR SOLUTION TO PROBLEMS
NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 113
A LACK OF SOCIALISM IS
THE PROBLEM

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 114


For which of you, intending an IPO, sitteth not down
first, and counteth the cost of future rounds of funding,
whether he have sufficient funds to finish it?
RODGERS 1:1

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 115


FARM PRODUCTIVITY UP 15X

BELIEVE IN
FREE
MARKETS

COST ↓ 6X OUTPUT ↑ 2.5X

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 116


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 117
BGR

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 118


BUILDING AROUND TEMPERATURE SENSORS

John Martin Reservoir, CO (Davey 2005)

Tucson , Arizona

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 119


TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 120
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 121
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 122
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 123
SunPower
>1 GW solar PV deployed 2009 revenue of $1.5B

Diversified portfolio: roofs to power plants 550 MW 2010 production


~1000 dealers and growing rapidly 5,000+ Employees; 100% solar

4+ GW power plant pipeline Publicly listed NASDAQ: SPWRA, SPWRB

Residential Commercial Power Plants

© 2010 SunPower Corp.

124
TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL
Solar PV Power Plants Are Cost Competitive

LCOE by Resource $/MWh: 2009 - 2012


Renewables
Solar PV $87 - 196

Solar Thermal $129 - 206

Wind $57 - 113

Conventional
$216- 334
Gas Peaking

Gas Combined 0 $69-96


Cycle
0 50 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Levelized Cost ($/MWh)
Prices include federal incentives
Source: Lazard Capital Markets 3/18/2009
© 2010 SunPower Corp.

125

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL


2010 Status – 2/3 Complete
$/Watt 2006 Downstream 2/3 of 50% Plan
Achieved By 2010

Cell/Panel

Silicon
Efficiency

2012

Residential Example

126

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL 126


SunPower Value Chain Focus
Polysilicon

Polysilicon Ingot Wafer Solar Cell Solar Panel System

• Highest conversion efficiency


• Unique, proprietary technology
• Manufacturing excellence
• Low engineering labor cost locations

TJR NVCA KEYNOTE – MAY 5, 2010 – CONFIDENTIAL

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